Texas Winter 2021-2022
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12z GEFS is having a loose signal of snow from December 5th to December 10th in the Southern Plains
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12z Euro is Colder, faster compared to the 12z GFS
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
CFS is being very consistent with the December Cold wave Round #2 (And maybe #3 now) at around Christmas Week
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
This is what the 6z GFS showed . . .
2 1060+ MB Highs at the same time.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_58.png
Another 1059 MB over Montana
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_us_65.png
Powerful Alaska & Greenland Blocks will allow for repeated Cold Waves in December. (Remember! Models tend to underestimate how long the blocks last.)
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh114-384.gif
With the Powerful Highs coming from the Arctic, extremely cold Temperatures are also coming as well . . .
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_fh198-384.gif
3 Big Winter Storms are also in the model, one of them starts just as the model run ends.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-384.gif
24-hour Kuchera Snowfall Totals
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021112606.snku_024h.conus.gif
2 1060+ MB Highs at the same time.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpaNorm_namer_58.png
Another 1059 MB over Montana
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_us_65.png
Powerful Alaska & Greenland Blocks will allow for repeated Cold Waves in December. (Remember! Models tend to underestimate how long the blocks last.)
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_fh114-384.gif
With the Powerful Highs coming from the Arctic, extremely cold Temperatures are also coming as well . . .
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_T2m_us_fh198-384.gif
3 Big Winter Storms are also in the model, one of them starts just as the model run ends.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh204-384.gif
24-hour Kuchera Snowfall Totals
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/floop-gfs-2021112606.snku_024h.conus.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- TheProfessor
- Professional-Met
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
The question is can we get a classic -PNA setup with a trough developing over the Intermountain regions where we would be in the prime spot for cold. Or will we see a +PNA with only a glancing shot and most of the cold going east of us like the Euro has. Will be interesting to see and hopefully it's the former.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TheProfessor wrote:The question is can we get a classic -PNA setup with a trough developing over the Intermountain regions where we would be in the prime spot for cold. Or will we see a +PNA with only a glancing shot and most of the cold going east of us like the Euro has. Will be interesting to see and hopefully it's the former.
Or a Neutral PNA & were in the bullseye zone . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
12z GFS is surging the Cold Air much faster than the 6z run.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Being a nina, I’d be surprised if we didn’t get a December cold dump. The only ones I can remember that didn’t are 07 and 11.
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- TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.
Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8929
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.
Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22490
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:wxman57 wrote:Interesting end to the 06Z GFS run. Since the GFS is having trouble following the current pattern beyond about 5 days, it'll be interesting to see how the second week of December pans out. Trend has been to predict severe cold moving south beyond 10 days then send it off to the east when the event gets closer. Remember this forecast as the second week of December draws closer. It was 4-5 days ago that the end of the GFS run had a 1060mb high over Colorado on Dec 7th. Now it has a brief surge of cold air around that time and cold delayed to the 12th.
Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
Heat miser laughs at us when we post runs past 10 days. As he should.
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.
Oh, that one.
The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.
Oh, that one.
The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!
wxman57 is a seasoned vet, if anyone knows about PNA it’ll be him (especially because I’m pretty convinced he installs a positive PNA deflector as a backup to his Canadian Wall each year)
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Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
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- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Iceresistance wrote:wxman57 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
However, it's already past 10 days . . . It's starting to be within 7 Days now.
I was speaking of the day 16 extreme cold event for TX in the 6Z GFS run.
Oh, that one.
The PNA is the one that controls your diverter, Positive turns it towards the East Coast, Negative is towards the West Coast, but Neutral makes the diverter face towards Texas!
Slightly -PNA is best for Texas and southern planes for a snowstorm, IMO. Shooting right through the Rockies, down towards Big Bend area.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
Cerlin wrote:wxman57 is a seasoned vet, if anyone knows about PNA it’ll be him (especially because I’m pretty convinced he installs a positive PNA deflector as a backup to his Canadian Wall each year)
You read my mind... Meanwhile, recent GFS runs say "what extreme cold?"
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
End of the 12z GFS is February 2021 all over again . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022
So if memory serves me correctly a week or so ago this weekend looked like a possible snow storm around today. Thinking on it we had cold, last night, and now we have rain today. Just a timing thing again.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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