Texas Winter 2021-2022

[AustinTXResident]

For Texas as a whole:

Coldest Februarys on Record (by average of daily average temperatures):
(1)....38.0°...1905
(2)....38.5°...1895
(3)....39.2°...1899
(4)....40.8°...1978
(5)....42.0°...1929
(6)....43.7°...1960
(7)....43.8°...1903
(7)....43.8°...1964
(9)....43.9°...2021
(10)..44.0°...1947
(10)..44.0°...2010

[Brent]

Hard to believe we're moving to the winter thread because yeah it's grim out there right now

But then again I've said it before I've never been impressed with December since I moved west in 2014

January February is to me the main show

[AustinTXResident]

October cold is not a reliable indicator of temperarures for winter. Rather, the February Arctic outbreak was foreshadowed for above normal October snowcover in Siberia and below normal ice coverage in the Barents Sea.

[Ntxw]

October cold is not a reliable indicator of temperarures for winter. Rather, the February Arctic outbreak was foreshadowed for above normal October snowcover in Siberia and below normal ice coverage in the Barents Sea.

I would respectfully disagree. It's not the cold itself. The October 2020 AO reversal from September was a signal the AO was going to be different than the prior years. After the November reconfiguration of the strat PV it was then greatly weakened by the big Aleutian low pattern that generated the persistent -AO the rest of the winter.

Feb 2021 -1.19
Jan 2021 -2.48
Dec 2020 -1.74
Nov 2020 2.09
Oct 2020 -0.07

2020-2021 the persistent -AO was the index that stood out. For 2021 so far the +EPO is the anomaly. Maybe this pattern will change, it just isn't there yet to make the reversal.

[harp]

Larry Cosgrove seems to think just before Christmas.

[Iceresistance]

Larry Cosgrove seems to think just before Christmas.

If the Sratwarm does indeed verify (10mb Temp Anomalies will help out a LOT!), I'm thinking between December 20th, 2021 & January 5th, 2022.

[SnowintheFalls]

I have restocked on wood for the winter so here is hoping there will be plenty of opportunities to burn through some of it!

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is still showing strong consistency for snow across the Southern Plains

[Iceresistance]

6z GFS is showing the Stratwarm that has been talked about lately.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Stratwarm.png


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/gfs_Tz10_nhem_21.png

[wxman57]

Hard to believe we're moving to the winter thread because yeah it's grim out there right now

But then again I've said it before I've never been impressed with December since I moved west in 2014

January February is to me the main show

Some of the coldest weather in Texas has occurred right around Christmas in the past. Usually, the first really strong cold front arrives just before Christmas. February is a popular month for snowfall, particularly across SE TX. La Nina winters, like this coming winter, tend to be warmer and drier across the southern U.S. Average temperatures each month may run 2-4 degrees above normal Dec-Feb. That doesn't mean we can't have some brief periods of very cold weather. The current progressive pattern with the storm track shifted north may well continue through the winter.

[Ntxw]

Happy first day of meteorological WINTER!!!

With that said the Pacific jet is roaring and is anomalously stronger than usual. One of the warmest beginnings to December. Brief cooldown early to mid next week but right back up to mild. The Pacific is God Awful and the Atlantic blocking has gone MIA.

Torch City.

[starsfan65]

Happy first day of meteorological WINTER!!!

With that said the Pacific jet is roaring and is anomalously stronger than usual. One of the warmest beginnings to December. Brief cooldown early to mid next week but right back up to mild. The Pacific is God Awful and the Atlantic blocking has gone MIA.

Torch City.

Blocking has gone missing?

[snowballzzz]

Plenty of cold air up in AK and Canada, just need the jet stream to buckle. Only cool air coming our way looks to be in and out next week.. Possibly a cold shot headed our way at the end of the GFS run the week before Christmas?

[Ntxw]

Happy first day of meteorological WINTER!!!

With that said the Pacific jet is roaring and is anomalously stronger than usual. One of the warmest beginnings to December. Brief cooldown early to mid next week but right back up to mild. The Pacific is God Awful and the Atlantic blocking has gone MIA.

Torch City.

Blocking has gone missing?

It's a classic +AO/NAO to boot with the +EPO. It's a full fledged -PDO La Nina pattern, cold north and warm south. Very cold to the north but with a strong polar jet to lock it up.

This is a snapshot but most of the model guidance series have a similar look.





This is not the mixed bag stuff, La Nina with El Nino like blocking etc. It's a classic Nina look we see maps of all the time cold north, warm south. Low heights in the Arctic and subarctic while higher heights dominate mid latitudes.

An SSW could reverse the AO but at the earliest to feel the effects if one started now would be in January.

[Iceresistance]

Happy first day of meteorological WINTER!!!

With that said the Pacific jet is roaring and is anomalously stronger than usual. One of the warmest beginnings to December. Brief cooldown early to mid next week but right back up to mild. The Pacific is God Awful and the Atlantic blocking has gone MIA.

Torch City.

Blocking has gone missing?

It's a classic +AO/NAO to boot with the +EPO. It's a full fledged -PDO La Nina pattern, cold north and warm south. Very cold to the north but with a strong polar jet to lock it up.

This is a snapshot but most of the model guidance series have a similar look.

https://i.imgur.com/OUjLCDv.png

https://i.imgur.com/dtNmBf4.jpg

This is not the mixed bag stuff, La Nina with El Nino like blocking etc. It's a classic Nina look we see maps of all the time cold north, warm south. Low heights in the Arctic and subarctic while higher heights dominate mid latitudes.

An SSW could reverse the AO but at the earliest to feel the effects if one started now would be in January.

There was a SSW in January 2021, & it's effects were not felt until February 2021, the impact of an SSW can take anywhere from 3-8 Weeks

[WacoWx]

I am really starting to question whether or not the New Mexico ski resorts will be open this season. I'm sure things will cool down enough for the Rockies to MAKE snow, but it is looking very bleak.

[Texas Snowman]

Whether we get any winter weather fun is one concern.

But I’m already very concerned about how hot and dry it could be next spring and summer.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS is still very consistent with a good snowfall signal for the Southern Plains next week, but the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other.

[wxman57]

Whether we get any winter weather fun is one concern.

But I’m already very concerned about how hot and dry it could be next spring and summer.

It's going to be hard for New Mexico to get much snow with a northern storm track in a La Nina winter.

[wxman57]

GEFS is still very consistent with a good snowfall signal for the Southern Plains next week, but the GEFS & GFS are in conflict with each other.

GFS has been terrible beyond 3-4 days. New Euro says no significant snow for Southern Plains next week. Highs in the 80s across most of Texas next Thursday (even upper 80s down south). Perfect winter temps. Here's the 10-day ECMWF total accumulated snow map: