TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Right. It's better to have a Oshtok (sp?) low, which resides west of alaska into NE Russia. Lets hope things retrograde. Forcings just aren't in our favor right now.
There's actually some Okhotsk activity now. It's pumping up the Aleutian ridge. What is needed is for the low activity to progress into the Aleutians and slide the the ridge there to the east toward Alaska.
But the cold waters isn't allowing the ridge to head east keeping it in place. We need to send heat into Alaska and the Arctic. 1984-1985, last year both were able to generate the Aleutian low (early Jan 1985 the low came, last year it came in late November) to send heat flux and disrupt significantly the tropospheric PV thus breaking it down bottom to top, which then it collapsed from top down.
We need for the Aleutian low to happen. If we don't the AO isn't going to change and the EPO is going to win. That's the difference between a 2020-2021 and 1984-1985 good winter, vs the poor bunch 1998-1999, 1999-2000, 2008-2009, and 2011-2012 type that the EPO just bulldozed and cold never came.