TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The The O low, which i cant spell, is expected to setup in Eastern Russia soon. This will be great for pumping heat into the Arctic/causing chaos.
I think it is spelled OshKosh B'gosh.
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TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The The O low, which i cant spell, is expected to setup in Eastern Russia soon. This will be great for pumping heat into the Arctic/causing chaos.
Ntxw wrote:We are definitely liable for a big Arctic outbreak if the -EPO pans out. Cold source is loaded still so all it will take is a little Pacific relaxation and the Great Plains can get dumped on even in a -PNA.
wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.
http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.
http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
harp wrote:To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.
http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….wxman57 wrote:I have good news for you winter lovers. My long-time cold-mongering coworker of 30+ years is saying that he's seeing a major pattern change after the 20th. I'm not so sure, but he's always been a good long-range forecaster. However, he's a self-proclaimed cold-mongerer and I'm a heat-mongerer. Meanwhile, the 384-hr panel of the 12z GFS has some pretty cold air heading south across the Central Plains on Christmas Eve. It did poorly with last week's "big" cold front and this weekend's big snow event isn't looking any more impressive than the last front. Surely, the long-range GFS is right THIS time? I'm sure you will all get your desired cold eventually. I'm not so sure I'd expect it for Christmas.
http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg
Just remember that JB only thinks about Pennsylvania when he says cold is coming.
WinterMax wrote:wxman57 wrote:harp wrote:To me, the interesting thing is that the operational GFS is now picking up on the changes being talked about to happen in this time period. Many on here have hinted at it and now it’s beginning to show up. Larry Cosgrove and JB have mentioned the same thing. All we can do is watch and wait….
Just remember that JB only thinks about Pennsylvania when he says cold is coming.
Bets on how many runs that artic plunge at the end of the 12z makes before it disappears? Lol
Near/Record highs possible Thursday and Friday.
Weak cold front that moved through the area on Monday morning will return northward as a warm front today. At the same time upper level heights will build over the region and this combined with warm air advection off the Gulf of Mexico will result in warming temperatures. How warm the area gets will likely be determined by the amount of cloud cover on both Thursday and Friday. If you think it has been unseasonably warm for the start of December you are right with temperatures averaging 10-15 degrees above normal.
Warm air advection will begin later this morning ushering a Gulf air mass back into the region. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70’s today, maybe warmer where low level clouds are able to break and this is most likely off to the north and west where moisture is less. Coastal locations will likely remain cloudy and even some sea fog along the beaches. Strong warm air advection will be in place on Thursday with high pushing the low 80’s over the region and dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60’s. Warmest day will be Friday as a strong cold front moves into TX and strong warm air advection continues over the area. Highs likely in the low to mid 80’s which will approach the all-time December high of 85. Depending on how quickly cloud cover scatters out on Friday morning, record highs will be possible. Areas SW of our area will likely reach the upper 80’s and low 90’s along the Rio Grande plains into S TX.
Cold Front:
A strong cold front will plow across TX late Friday into early Saturday. A think line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front, but more importantly a significant drop in temperatures. Front should be near the coast early Saturday with a cold air mass and strong cold air advection pouring into the region on Saturday. Gusty north winds will drive temperatures from the 70’s early into the 50’s during the day. Showers will the front will clear the area early with clearing skies from north to south during the day. Cold Saturday night with lows falling into the 30’s for many areas and high pressure will be nearby on Sunday and with full sun only warming to near 60.
High pressure shifts east on Monday and return to SE winds and once again a quick warm up into the 70’s for much of next week is expected. Through next weekend there are no indications of any sustained cold air intrusions. In fact next week will feature an expansive area of very warm weather across much of the US
Iceresistance wrote:The MJO is on the move, posed to move to Phase 7 later this week or next week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
Ntxw wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The MJO is on the move, posed to move to Phase 7 later this week or next week.
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/On-the-move.gif
It's a fairly amped MJO wave as well. Couple of WPAC typhoons may feed into the Okhotsk low region. Helps pump more -EPO. We needed something to change it up and this could be it. Cold will start in the west and bleed east. With -pna East of the MS river may miss out early but west is in good position.
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