“Big ones” in 2022

[aspen]

Based on the last few years and the current NNME forecasts, Fiona or Julia will be yet another late August Cat 4 Gulf landfall. Maybe even a late alphabet storm (Richard, Shary, or Tobias) will be a high ACE mid or late-September MDR major, just to copy 2020-2021 some more.

[cycloneye]

Hermine and Paula both strong cat 4's.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I'll throw my hat in the ring and say Ian because I storm.

[Hurricane2021]

Updated...
HERMINE
IAN
Karl
Martin
OWEN
SHARY
Tobias
Virginie

[AnnularCane]

Now that we've nixed the Nino for 2022... I would like to also add Owen and Shary Bobbins. And possibly Paula but not overly sure.

[Teban54]

Wild take: Extremely late season start, only to lead to Alex getting retired, continuing the streak of Alex being used for interesting, anomalous storms.

Seeing how this is becoming increasingly unlikely (with hints at another active season and the January attempts failing to materialize), I'll give a more serious (but still casual) attempt.

Gaston, Julia, Owen, Richard. The first two in late August/early September as MDR storms, the others possibly in October as Caribbean storms.

[Chris90]

Ian and Karl. One or both reaching Cat 5. Other majors besides those but this list seems to favor the boys being more intense.

This name list has an interesting and active history.

It was first used in 1980, with Allen becoming the earliest Cat 5 on record (until Emily shattered it in 2005) and Allen is still holding the record for strength at 165kts. Dipped to 899mbs putting Allen in the Top 10 most intense. The definition of a Caribbean cruiser. Also an A-name Cat 5.

1986 was notable for producing no majors.

1992 wasn't highly active but was the definition of it only takes one with Andrew. Allen's replacement, and also another A-name Cat 5. Produced 170kts flight level winds in the Bahamas. Most would probably still say this storm produced the most intense wind damage recorded in the Atlantic basin.

1998 saw Georges and Mitch. Georges nearly reached Cat 5 at 135kts and took an extremely destructive tour of the Caribbean and Gulf. Mitch reached 155kts and 905mbs also putting him in the Top 10 list with Allen.

2004 saw Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan with 2 other majors besides that, interestingly Alex was an early season major and the 3rd time this list produced an A-name major. Ivan reached 910mbs putting him in the Top 10 list with Allen and Mitch, and also had some intense dropsondes recording winds near 200kts as they descended through the eyewall. Ivan was knocked off the top 10 list by Maria. Ivan was the most southerly hurricane, major hurricane and Cat 5 hurricane until Matthew became the most southerly Cat 5 in 2016 (also from this name list, but it's possible he'll get downgraded to Cat 4 in the future which would restore Ivan's record.) Karl was a major this year as well.

2010 One of the most active seasons and produced Alex in June. Technically, Alex didn't reach major hurricane status which would give this list its 4th A-name major, but it did peak at 95kts and 946mbs, so the pressure was that of a major hurricane and the winds were almost there. Also did this exceptionally early in the season. Igor reached a peak of 135kts but recon wasn't there for peak, it was based off satellite estimates, so it's possible Igor did reach Cat 5 at some point in his life, and I've seen several people say that they think it likely did. Karl was a major this year as well and was very destructive for Mexico.

2016 first active season in the current active run after the super niño of the mid 10s. Produced Matthew which was the first official Cat 5 in 9 years since Felix. Mitch's replacement name. Might get downgraded in future due to SFMR revision, but would probably get finalized at 135kts by my estimate.

This is probably one of the most interesting name lists in my opinion. 3 major A-names with a very close 4th, 3 hurricanes making it on the Top 10 most intense list until Maria knocked out Ivan. More often than not this list is used for active seasons, with multiple seasons using this list qualifying for hyperactive ACE.

The current active streak started in 2016 with this list. Maybe 2022 will be the grand finale for this active streak with this list ending the streak that it started.

If it is active I'm hoping for an MDR-heavy season with the intense storms recurving in the middle of the ATL and missing all islands. This list is notorious for producing extremely destructive storms though, and considering the CSU forecast, I hope everyone is prepared.

[Teban54]

Ian and Karl. One or both reaching Cat 5. Other majors besides those but this list seems to favor the boys being more intense.

This name list has an interesting and active history.

It was first used in 1980, with Allen becoming the earliest Cat 5 on record (until Emily shattered it in 2005) and Allen is still holding the record for strength at 165kts. Dipped to 899mbs putting Allen in the Top 10 most intense. The definition of a Caribbean cruiser. Also an A-name Cat 5.

1986 was notable for producing no majors.

1992 wasn't highly active but was the definition of it only takes one with Andrew. Allen's replacement, and also another A-name Cat 5. Produced 170kts flight level winds in the Bahamas. Most would probably still say this storm produced the most intense wind damage recorded in the Atlantic basin.

1998 saw Georges and Mitch. Georges nearly reached Cat 5 at 135kts and took an extremely destructive tour of the Caribbean and Gulf. Mitch reached 155kts and 905mbs also putting him in the Top 10 list with Allen.

2004 saw Charley, Frances, Jeanne, and Ivan with 2 other majors besides that, interestingly Alex was an early season major and the 3rd time this list produced an A-name major. Ivan reached 910mbs putting him in the Top 10 list with Allen and Mitch, and also had some intense dropsondes recording winds near 200kts as they descended through the eyewall. Ivan was knocked off the top 10 list by Maria. Ivan was the most southerly hurricane, major hurricane and Cat 5 hurricane until Matthew became the most southerly Cat 5 in 2016 (also from this name list, but it's possible he'll get downgraded to Cat 4 in the future which would restore Ivan's record.) Karl was a major this year as well.

2010 One of the most active seasons and produced Alex in June. Technically, Alex didn't reach major hurricane status which would give this list its 4th A-name major, but it did peak at 95kts and 946mbs, so the pressure was that of a major hurricane and the winds were almost there. Also did this exceptionally early in the season. Igor reached a peak of 135kts but recon wasn't there for peak, it was based off satellite estimates, so it's possible Igor did reach Cat 5 at some point in his life, and I've seen several people say that they think it likely did. Karl was a major this year as well and was very destructive for Mexico.

2016 first active season in the current active run after the super niño of the mid 10s. Produced Matthew which was the first official Cat 5 in 9 years since Felix. Mitch's replacement name. Might get downgraded in future due to SFMR revision, but would probably get finalized at 135kts by my estimate.

This is probably one of the most interesting name lists in my opinion. 3 major A-names with a very close 4th, 3 hurricanes making it on the Top 10 most intense list until Maria knocked out Ivan. More often than not this list is used for active seasons, with multiple seasons using this list qualifying for hyperactive ACE.

The current active streak started in 2016 with this list. Maybe 2022 will be the grand finale for this active streak with this list ending the streak that it started.

If it is active I'm hoping for an MDR-heavy season with the intense storms recurving in the middle of the ATL and missing all islands. This list is notorious for producing extremely destructive storms though, and considering the CSU forecast, I hope everyone is prepared.

Also Alex 2016, a freaking hurricane in January lol.

At this rate I would hate it if Alex 2022 is just a boring subtropical slop in May.

[Category5Kaiju]

I know it's really not anything realistically, but it does not help that List 2 has been associated with the more vicious and active historical seasons dating back to 1980. I cannot recall if it was on Storm2k or a different site, but I remember seeing a comment from a person, who was like "why not just retire all of List 2" as the 2004 season was happening. If I had to really give an honest answer, I'd say any name after Gaston and (maybe?) before Virginie is probably fair game for a "big one" this year.

[kevin]

Pure guessing of course, but maybe Ian because of the i-curse. If this really becomes as active of a season of some of the early forecasts indicate then the strongest storms might be towards the end of September / beginning of October part of the season so maybe one of these 3: Richard/Shary/Tobias. Also, on a slightly unrelated note I have a feeling that this will be the year with the first Atlantic cat 5 since 2019. We've now already had 2 very active seasons (2020, 2021) with multiple storms right on the tipping point between cat 4 and cat 5 (Laura, Eta, Iota, Ida, Sam). If 2022 is gonna be another very active season I just have a gut feeling that we won't be able to escape from at least one cat 5 storm for a third year in a row.

[Category5Kaiju]

Pure guessing of course, but maybe Ian because of the i-curse. If this really becomes as active of a season of some of the early forecasts indicate then the strongest storms might be towards the end of September / beginning of October part of the season so maybe one of these 3: Richard/Shary/Tobias. Also, on a slightly unrelated note I have a feeling that this will be the year with the first Atlantic cat 5 since 2019. We've now already had 2 very active seasons (2020, 2021) with multiple storms right on the tipping point between cat 4 and cat 5 (Laura, Eta, Iota, Ida, Sam). If 2022 is gonna be another very active season I just have a gut feeling that we won't be able to escape from at least one cat 5 storm for a third year in a row.

I mean, your gut feeling is well supported as List 2 has been associated with years that featured Cat 5 storms. 1980, 1992, 1998, 2004, 2016 (yes, we can save the Matthew debates later). And if we count 2010 (as Igor got pretty darn close to Cat 5 status and was arguably stronger than Matthew). In fact, since its debut, there was only one List 2 year that featured no storm that got close to Cat 5 status: 1986. Other than that, every single year that used List 2 has had a Cat 5 storm or close to one. Like I said, it is indeed quite ominous that we have to use List 2 this year, a naming list that has a pretty notorious past.

[aspen]

Pure guessing of course, but maybe Ian because of the i-curse. If this really becomes as active of a season of some of the early forecasts indicate then the strongest storms might be towards the end of September / beginning of October part of the season so maybe one of these 3: Richard/Shary/Tobias. Also, on a slightly unrelated note I have a feeling that this will be the year with the first Atlantic cat 5 since 2019. We've now already had 2 very active seasons (2020, 2021) with multiple storms right on the tipping point between cat 4 and cat 5 (Laura, Eta, Iota, Ida, Sam). If 2022 is gonna be another very active season I just have a gut feeling that we won't be able to escape from at least one cat 5 storm for a third year in a row.

It’s possible that both Eta and Sam were Cat 5s, but bad recon scheduling/luck meant we’ll never know for sure. I really hope we don’t get yet another possibly Cat 5 that has a ton of recon problems this year, or a repeat of November 2nd 2020.

I think there’s a decent chance we’ll get into the auxiliary list this year, given that we’re stuck in very similar atmospheric conditions as 2020-21 (La Nina, strong WAM and African Standing Wave, etc). If we get that far, then a late alphabet storm like Tobias, Virginia, or Walter could become a Big One, assuming October/November activity doesn’t shut down like last year.

[hcane27]

If the atmosphere ends up actually being very similar to 202-2021 , then maybe we have no cat 5’s at all.

Oops. 2020-2021

[Category5Kaiju]

So I know some of you guys have guessed the name Richard as being a bad one; in light of this, I have a rather quirky story to tell. I actually have a close friend who is very much into ecology and weather, and his name is Randolph. He was sort of excited about the prospect of his name being used as a replacement name in the event Richard ends up as a "big one" lol

[FireRat]

So I know some of you guys have guessed the name Richard as being a bad one; in light of this, I have a rather quirky story to tell. I actually have a close friend who is very much into ecology and weather, and his name is Randolph. He was sort of excited about the prospect of his name being used as a replacement name in the event Richard ends up as a "big one" lol

Haha that's funny! I've also got a bit of a story regarding the name list this year, not of my name but that of my childhood dog. He was a tough little maltese named Tobie, which is nickname for Tobias.
Funny enough some of my family members did call him Tobias when he was older, made him sound more like a serious old man instead of a dog lol.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I know some of you guys have guessed the name Richard as being a bad one; in light of this, I have a rather quirky story to tell. I actually have a close friend who is very much into ecology and weather, and his name is Randolph. He was sort of excited about the prospect of his name being used as a replacement name in the event Richard ends up as a "big one" lol

Haha that's funny! I've also got a bit of a story regarding the name list this year, not of my name but that of my childhood dog. He was a tough little maltese named Tobie, which is nickname for Tobias.
Funny enough some of my family members did call him Tobias when he was older, made him sound more like a serious old man instead of a dog lol.

Oh that's cute

Yeah, for me at least, I am a huge comic book fan, so when I see "Tobias," I think of Tobey Maguire (his real first name is Tobias) and his portrayal as the OG Spiderman in live-action.

[FireRat]

Oh that's cute

Yeah, for me at least, I am a huge comic book fan, so when I see "Tobias," I think of Tobey Maguire (his real first name is Tobias) and his portrayal as the OG Spiderman in live-action.

Oh yeah, Tobey Maguire, haha nice! Best spiderman IMO too. Perhaps "Tobias" ends up having "superpowers"
That name does have a ring to it too, kind of like Isaias

[Category5Kaiju]

1980: Allen
1986: None
1992: Andrew
1998: Georges and Mitch
2004: Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
2010: Igor
2016: Matthew

Yeah, List 2 is not to be messed with at all.

[Hurricane2021]

WPAC:
Songda, Ma-on,
Tokage, Nanmadol,
Talas, Kulap,
Nesat, Banyan,
Yamaneko

EPAC:
Agatha, Blas,
Darby, Georgette,
Ivette, Madeline

NIO:
Asani, Sitrang,
Mocha

[Category5Kaiju]

Now that the 2022 season is winding down, whoever thought Fiona and Ian sure looks to be the winner!