Possible Development North of Puerto Rico (10/10)

[galaxy401]

Another area of interest in the subtropical Atlantic.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
An upper-level trough currently located over the Bahamas is
forecast to help induce the formation of a surface trough of low
pressure to the north of Puerto Rico in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions could be conducive for some subtropical
development of this system as it moves generally northward through
the latter half of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure is expected to form north of Puerto
Rico over the southwestern Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual subtropical
development of this system while it meanders over the southwestern
Atlantic through the early part of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

2 PM

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure extending from near the Turks and Caicos
Islands north-northeastward for several hundred miles is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development of this
system over the next few days while it drifts north-northeastward.
By this weekend, the system is forecast to meander over the
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[galaxy401]

Feels like a repeat of 94L.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the central Caribbean
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development
of this system over the next few days while it drifts northward.
The system is then forecast to meander over the subtropical western
Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some gradual subtropical development
of this system, and a subtropical depression could form while it
drifts northward during the next couple of days. The system is
then forecast to meander over the subtropical western Atlantic to
the west or southwest of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure stretching from the eastern Caribbean Sea
northward to the southwestern Atlantic continues to produce a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The northern part of
this trough axis is expected to result in the formation of a surface
cyclone, and environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive for
subtropical development of this system thereafter. A subtropical
depression could form while the system moves northward during the
next couple of days. The system is then forecast to meander over the
subtropical western Atlantic to the west or southwest of Bermuda as
upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the end of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate a trough of low pressure
extends over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, and it continues to
produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A
surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge along the northern
portion of the trough axis tonight, and a subtropical depression
could form during the next day or so while the system moves
northward over the western Atlantic. By late Saturday, upper-level
winds are forecast to become less conducive for development, and the
low is expected to begin interacting with an approaching frontal
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge
along the northern portion of the trough axis tonight or Friday,
and some subsequent development could occur through Saturday. By
late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less
conducive for development, and the low is expected to begin
interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Category5Kaiju]

The one unique thing I've noticed with this year compared to years such as 2019, 2020, and 2021 is that it basically prevented any shorties from happening post-July. This season seemed to have really gotten sick of the shorties complaints from the last several years

[FireRat]

The one unique thing I've noticed with this year compared to years such as 2019, 2020, and 2021 is that it basically prevented any shorties from happening post-July. This season seemed to have really gotten sick of the shorties complaints from the last several years

Actually I feel like the NHC has become more conservative in naming the shorties this season, IMO of course, and perhaps from here on they may keep it that way thanks to the spamfest that 2020-21 was. We did have at least 4 candidates this year that could've been shorties and gotten named only to last a day. I think that the NHC may have become more patient with naming shorties when they're not posing an immediate threat to land, just to make sure they deserve a name. Colin is an example of one that got named quick due to its close proximity to land vs the one invest in the eastern Atlantic from a few weeks ago that looked decent but never got named, since it was over open waters. We would probably be at the P name already if the "2022 shortie candidates" been named, again this is just my honest opinion.

[wwizard]

The one unique thing I've noticed with this year compared to years such as 2019, 2020, and 2021 is that it basically prevented any shorties from happening post-July. This season seemed to have really gotten sick of the shorties complaints from the last several years

Actually I feel like the NHC has become more conservative in naming the shorties this season, IMO of course, and perhaps from here on they may keep it that way thanks to the spamfest that 2020-21 was. We did have at least 4 candidates this year that could've been shorties and gotten named only to last a day. I think that the NHC may have become more patient with naming shorties when they're not posing an immediate threat to land, just to make sure they deserve a name. Colin is an example of one that got named quick due to its close proximity to land vs the one invest in the eastern Atlantic from a few weeks ago that looked decent but never got named, since it was over open waters. We would probably be at the P name already if the "2022 shortie candidates" been named, again this is just my honest opinion.

My thing is that if it meets the criteria, then who cares that it's a shortie or no threat to land? It is what it is. If it's a tropical storm, according to the parameters set forth, then call it a tropical storm. Might have saved them from having to retire another I name.

[tolakram]

The one unique thing I've noticed with this year compared to years such as 2019, 2020, and 2021 is that it basically prevented any shorties from happening post-July. This season seemed to have really gotten sick of the shorties complaints from the last several years

Actually I feel like the NHC has become more conservative in naming the shorties this season, IMO of course, and perhaps from here on they may keep it that way thanks to the spamfest that 2020-21 was. We did have at least 4 candidates this year that could've been shorties and gotten named only to last a day. I think that the NHC may have become more patient with naming shorties when they're not posing an immediate threat to land, just to make sure they deserve a name. Colin is an example of one that got named quick due to its close proximity to land vs the one invest in the eastern Atlantic from a few weeks ago that looked decent but never got named, since it was over open waters. We would probably be at the P name already if the "2022 shortie candidates" been named, again this is just my honest opinion.

My thing is that if it meets the criteria, then who cares that it's a shortie or no threat to land? It is what it is. If it's a tropical storm, according to the parameters set forth, then call it a tropical storm. Might have saved them from having to retire another I name.

I haven't seen anything that deserves a name that didn't get named. Obviously we have a difference of opinion here and that's ok, but remember the NHC mission statement is not about making weather enthusiast happy.

[AJC3]

Going...going...

Western Atlantic:
A low pressure area located about 100 miles west-northwest of
Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity to the
north of the center as it continues to interact with a nearby
frontal system. Upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the
system tonight, and the low is forecast to merge with the front by
early Sunday. Therefore, the chances of subtropical development of
this system appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.