Texas Fall 2022
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- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
On to the best weather season of the year!
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
- starsfan65
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- Location: Garland,Tx
- starsfan65
- Category 2
- Posts: 675
- Age: 46
- Joined: Thu Dec 17, 2015 1:18 pm
- Location: Garland,Tx
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here
We're about to move into the most fun section of the year!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
I hope you are rightCpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:I hope you are rightCpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:All quiet in here
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
My confidence level is 7 out of 10.Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:I hope you are rightCpv17 wrote:
There’s really not much to talk about right now. Sometime around December 7th-10th is when it may turn colder. Till then temperatures will be above average excluding tonight/tomorrow. Humidity will come back on Friday.
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:My confidence level is 7 out of 10.Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:I hope you are right
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
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- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Greenland Block is also the key.Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:My confidence level is 7 out of 10.Cpv17 wrote:
I’m not too confident yet about the cold coming. My confidence level is about a 4 out of 10 right now.
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
starsfan65 wrote:Greenland Block is also the key.Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:My confidence level is 7 out of 10.
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Greenland Block is also the key.Cpv17 wrote:
I haven’t looked at the models yet today but I looked last night and I would like to see more blocking in western/northwestern Canada and less of a southeastern ridge before I’m more confident.
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Greenland Block is also the key.
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Itryatgolf wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:
Yeah, that’s important for sure but I feel like a -EPO with ridging positioned in the right place is far more important for Texas to get cold than a -NAO (Greenland block).
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Itryatgolf wrote:Until the Aleutian ridge breaks down or becomes poleward, we still got a ways to go on cold weather here. The 12zgfs has a 1096mb high over Greenland 234hr btw.
Good lord! How is that even possible!? Lol
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.
Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:Ntxw wrote:
I think you are right sir the -NAO by itself isn't enough. It allows longer duration cold (if it comes from the EPO) and slows the wave-pattern vs fast flow.
So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.
The models don't look all that cold here. Perhaps that will change? We shall see
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:So far it's pretty much same pattern as last December moving forward besides the monster -nao keep it from blowtorching with a few cool shots mixed in.
Very -AO. Last December was extreme +AO. Cryosphere is quite different.
Not just that, the snowfall cover is the highest since the 1960s! Quite the change compared to last year. Literally!
https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/
Pacific needs a little shifting before it gets cold here. Hopefully it happens to an extent
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