Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
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- cycloneye
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Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Ok peeps. Here is the September poll that will close on the 1rst at Midnight EDT.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Going to go with 4. I also think that the strongest storm of the season, a 155 mph Category 4 hurricane or a 160+ mph Category 5 hurricane, will occur then.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Voted for the option Six or more because of the Aussies outlook of no El Niño declaration by them. Will edit the poll as I have done in the past ones, to allow the members to change their vote, but that will occur from August 25th.
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years
I don't even think 2015, which was a Super El Nino year with cooler sst anomalies in the deep tropics, was that inactive
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Category5Kaiju wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years
I don't even think 2015, which was a Super El Nino year with cooler sst anomalies in the deep tropics, was that inactive
2015 ACE in the Atlantic is 68% of the yearly average.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.
Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"
I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0
Let's see what happens:
-removed- -removed- -removed-
Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"
I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0
Let's see what happens:
-removed- -removed- -removed-
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Going with 5 for now, with 2 of those being majors
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Boomer Sooner!
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.
Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"
I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0
Let's see what happens:
(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)
wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.
Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"
I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0
Let's see what happens:
(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)
Your prediction could come true. There's always going to be a First time for everything.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
ConvergenceZone wrote:There's always going to be a First time for everything.
People said the same thing after a storm-free August last year. Then came Fiona and Ian.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I'm going with 4 based on these stats:
Sep NS El Niño:
Active era:
18: 6
15: 4
14: 2
09: 2
06: 4
04: 4
02: 8
97: 1
AVG active era: 4
Inactive era/modern satellites:
94: 3
91: 3
87: 3
86: 2
82: 3
79: 3
77: 3
76: 2
72: 2
AVG inactive modern satellite era: 3
+1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951:
15: 4
02: 8
97: 1
87: 3
82: 3
72: 2
65: 4
63: 5
57: 4
51: 4
AVG +1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951: 4
Sep NS El Niño:
Active era:
18: 6
15: 4
14: 2
09: 2
06: 4
04: 4
02: 8
97: 1
AVG active era: 4
Inactive era/modern satellites:
94: 3
91: 3
87: 3
86: 2
82: 3
79: 3
77: 3
76: 2
72: 2
AVG inactive modern satellite era: 3
+1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951:
15: 4
02: 8
97: 1
87: 3
82: 3
72: 2
65: 4
63: 5
57: 4
51: 4
AVG +1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951: 4
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.
Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"
I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0
Let's see what happens:
(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)
That troll correction predates me. lol, I like it. I think I'll remove it though.
I predict 4. Absolutely no clue how this season will end up. I'll be flabbergasted if it's as busy as predicted.
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M a r k
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- ConvergenceZone
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Teban54 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:There's always going to be a First time for everything.
People said the same thing after a storm-free August last year. Then came Fiona and Ian.
Anything can happen, it can really heat up, or it can end up dry as a bone. We won't know until it happens. But that's what's fun about predictions.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I thinking of three to five systems in September, but I chose four.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
After reading NOAA's updated prediction for the '23 Atlantic season, I decided that my guess for September will be a range between 2- 9 named storms. I of course realized that the poll required a specific number, thus decided on three.
Biggest risk?? I'll go with a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane that may rival the Azores worst landfall ever.
Biggest risk?? I'll go with a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane that may rival the Azores worst landfall ever.
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Andy D
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I picked 5 but I think that could be a bit high. Expert predictions would suggest that 5+ is very much a possibility but I am somewhat skeptical.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
IcyTundra wrote:I picked 5 but I think that could be a bit high. Expert predictions would suggest that 5+ is very much a possibility but I am somewhat skeptical.
Looking at the 18z models this afternoon and suddenly 5 feels way more doable for next month lol
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Andy D
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- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
Those that have not voted yet, hurry as the poll will close for voting on the 31rst at midnight EDT.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
I am probably too aggressive, but I went with 6 or more. I think September could be very active.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?
The poll closes at midnight EDT so those who have not voted yet, you better hurry.
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