Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 90L)

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cycloneye
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Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 90L)

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2023 6:39 pm

East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so on the tail
end of an elongated trough of low pressure, currently located more
than 500 miles to the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some
slow development of this system is possible over the weekend into
early next week as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10-15
mph across the Lesser Antilles into the northeastern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#2 Postby Teban54 » Thu Aug 17, 2023 6:46 pm

Models have really started to favor this one over 99L. Greater potential for land threats, too.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of Lesser Antilles

#3 Postby IsabelaWeather » Thu Aug 17, 2023 6:50 pm

Teban54 wrote:Models have really started to favor this one over 99L. Greater potential for land threats, too.



Yup, this one is intriguing. Doesnt loook like much atm though
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#4 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2023 6:58 pm

Image

Area @11N/47W.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#5 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:00 pm

I thought the canadian was back into the ole' CMC "Constantly Making Cyclones" mode last week, now I'm not so sure.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#7 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:08 pm

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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#8 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 17, 2023 7:30 pm

Likely waiting for more concentrated convection before tagging this disturbance.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#9 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:06 pm

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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#10 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:14 pm



Those SW of Haiti…? :eek:
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#11 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:19 pm

Last frame of 18z euro
Image
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:19 pm

18z Euro until 90 hours has a 1004 storm.

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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#13 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:20 pm

Looks like a lot of shear to me. The 18Z Euro is 3MB weaker than the 12Z:

Image

18Z GFS:
Image
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#14 Postby Ianswfl » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:38 pm

SFLcane wrote:


Those SW of Haiti…? :eek:


Gotta see what 00z 360 hr ensembles are. Almost reminds you of a Matthew like track possible.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#15 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2023 8:58 pm

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18z ECENS… :eek:
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#16 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 17, 2023 10:23 pm

That’s another west shift from 12z.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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is a weighted averaged

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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#17 Postby Ianswfl » Thu Aug 17, 2023 10:25 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:That’s another west shift from 12z.


Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#18 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 17, 2023 10:31 pm

Ianswfl wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That’s another west shift from 12z.


Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

That 18z path will likely go through the toughest terrain in the Caribbean.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#19 Postby Ianswfl » Thu Aug 17, 2023 11:24 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
Ianswfl wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That’s another west shift from 12z.


Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.

That 18z path will likely go through the toughest terrain in the Caribbean.


GFS running. So far it's way south with it.
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Re: Possible Development ESE of the Lesser Antilles

#20 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 18, 2023 2:00 am

Ianswfl wrote:
AutoPenalti wrote:That’s another west shift from 12z.


Any more west shift and looking at a Matthew type storm maybe. That path looks more like what Jeanne took in 2004. Complex pattern. Worst would be further west shift and goes up over Cuba and the Keys.


Image
00z Euro… Shift W, does loop in SE Bahamas then finishes moving NW… Upper conditions seem good in SE Bahamas for strengthening…
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