Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

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How many named storms will form in September?

Poll ended at Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:00 pm

One
2
3%
Two
2
3%
Three
9
14%
Four
14
22%
Five
16
25%
Six or more
17
27%
None will form
3
5%
 
Total votes: 63

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cycloneye
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Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 31, 2023 11:00 pm

Ok peeps. Here is the September poll that will close on the 1rst at Midnight EDT.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#2 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 31, 2023 11:21 pm

Going to go with 4. I also think that the strongest storm of the season, a 155 mph Category 4 hurricane or a 160+ mph Category 5 hurricane, will occur then.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#3 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 01, 2023 10:59 am

Voted for the option Six or more because of the Aussies outlook of no El Niño declaration by them. Will edit the poll as I have done in the past ones, to allow the members to change their vote, but that will occur from August 25th.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#4 Postby ConvergenceZone » Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:01 pm

I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years :)
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#5 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Aug 04, 2023 11:30 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years :)


I don't even think 2015, which was a Super El Nino year with cooler sst anomalies in the deep tropics, was that inactive :lol:
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#6 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Aug 05, 2023 12:18 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:I'll go with 1 storm in September. I don't think there will be any in August, except maybe a depression or two possibly, but I think we will get 1 storm in September. I just don't think this year will be very active, just a gut feeling, mostly due to the fairly strong El nino. That's fine, we need a break after the last few years :)


I don't even think 2015, which was a Super El Nino year with cooler sst anomalies in the deep tropics, was that inactive :lol:


2015 ACE in the Atlantic is 68% of the yearly average.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#7 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 05, 2023 7:37 am

I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.

Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"

I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0

Let's see what happens:

-removed- -removed- -removed-
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#8 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Aug 05, 2023 9:51 am

Going with 5 for now, with 2 of those being majors
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#9 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 05, 2023 10:26 am

wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.

Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"

I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0

Let's see what happens:

(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)
wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.

Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"

I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0

Let's see what happens:

(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)



Your prediction could come true. There's always going to be a First time for everything.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#10 Postby Teban54 » Sat Aug 05, 2023 10:29 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:There's always going to be a First time for everything.

People said the same thing after a storm-free August last year. Then came Fiona and Ian.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#11 Postby LarryWx » Sat Aug 05, 2023 10:35 am

I'm going with 4 based on these stats:

Sep NS El Niño:

Active era:
18: 6
15: 4
14: 2
09: 2
06: 4
04: 4
02: 8
97: 1
AVG active era: 4

Inactive era/modern satellites:
94: 3
91: 3
87: 3
86: 2
82: 3
79: 3
77: 3
76: 2
72: 2
AVG inactive modern satellite era: 3

+1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951:
15: 4
02: 8
97: 1
87: 3
82: 3
72: 2
65: 4
63: 5
57: 4
51: 4
AVG +1.0+ ASO ONI since 1951: 4
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#12 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 05, 2023 11:12 am

wxman57 wrote:I voted "none". Perhaps a little hopecasting.

Ha! Instead of "hope" I typed "wish" and my post was changed to "Perhaps a little (stop trolling)"

I'd like to see the season end at 5/1/0

Let's see what happens:

(stop trolling) (stop trolling) (stop trolling)


That troll correction predates me. lol, I like it. I think I'll remove it though.

I predict 4. Absolutely no clue how this season will end up. I'll be flabbergasted if it's as busy as predicted.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#13 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 05, 2023 4:18 pm

Teban54 wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:There's always going to be a First time for everything.

People said the same thing after a storm-free August last year. Then came Fiona and Ian.


Anything can happen, it can really heat up, or it can end up dry as a bone. We won't know until it happens. But that's what's fun about predictions.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#14 Postby HurakaYoshi » Mon Aug 07, 2023 1:02 pm

I thinking of three to five systems in September, but I chose four.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#15 Postby chaser1 » Thu Aug 10, 2023 9:19 pm

After reading NOAA's updated prediction for the '23 Atlantic season, I decided that my guess for September will be a range between 2- 9 named storms. I of course realized that the poll required a specific number, thus decided on three.

Biggest risk?? I'll go with a Cat 2 or Cat 3 hurricane that may rival the Azores worst landfall ever.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#16 Postby IcyTundra » Thu Aug 10, 2023 10:42 pm

I picked 5 but I think that could be a bit high. Expert predictions would suggest that 5+ is very much a possibility but I am somewhat skeptical.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#17 Postby chaser1 » Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:28 pm

IcyTundra wrote:I picked 5 but I think that could be a bit high. Expert predictions would suggest that 5+ is very much a possibility but I am somewhat skeptical.


Looking at the 18z models this afternoon and suddenly 5 feels way more doable for next month lol
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 26, 2023 6:23 am

Those that have not voted yet, hurry as the poll will close for voting on the 31rst at midnight EDT.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#19 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Aug 26, 2023 7:43 pm

I am probably too aggressive, but I went with 6 or more. I think September could be very active.
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Re: Poll: How many named storms will form in September?

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2023 3:03 pm

The poll closes at midnight EDT so those who have not voted yet, you better hurry.
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