2023 Cyclone Retirement (Poll Included at Top) Dora / Otis retired

[Nuno]

I also think the sparse population in the landfall region, while hopefully keeping the price tag down, should absolutely be factored into the decision for retirement beyond monetary damage. Suppose Idalia had the same cost as Sally ($7.3 billion, costliest hurricane to not be retired). Then the fact that Idalia hit a much smaller population would suggest that it hit a lot harder, had more severe localized impacts and is a more historic storm compared to Sally. Those people, despite being smaller in number, had their lives affected much more by Idalia, which is a much stronger argument for retirement than Sally had.

This is a good point, but we should factor death toll as well. Obviously there isn't (nor should there be) some "clear cut" magical number that determines retirement, but early reports from AP are one death in Georgia, and two in Florida from two separate car crashes and authorities haven't yet determined if they are actually storm related. We should hopefully see a very low death toll compared to most modern hurricanes making landfall and we should factor this as well into the retirement decision.

While Idalia may be a more borderline case for retirement than originally thought (thankfully), I still think it does warrant retirement based on what we know now. At least if it started with a more easily replaceable letter.

Well, thats kind of the rub innit? If we have such a "borderline" case, the fact that its the most difficult letter to replace currently should also factor into it.

At the end of the day, all cyclones are inherently destructive and cause tragedy. That is what they do at landfall. They all cause damage one way or another, even the most minimal tropical storms. Most of us on S2k live on the Gulf or East coast and we all remember "our" storms. Everyone who has gone through a storm has had their lives affected, because thats what storms do. But we shouldn't keep such a low bar for retirement unless the WMO are going to change the naming scheme, otherwise we might as well retire every storm in which people had their lives affected.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just an FYI...
I'm still bitter over Emily 2005 not being retired

[Sciencerocks]

I don't think every hurricane that hits the United states should be retired. We're going to run through every possible name very fast if we do. I don't feel that Idalia called the level of destruction and death necessary to be retired. Kind of like Bret of 1998 that hit a low populated area and this also made landfall in one of the lowest populated area. I'd argue against retirement.

[Sciencerocks]

Here are my odds of retirement as of the end of August
Arlene 0%
Bret 5%
Cindy 0%
Don 0%
Emily 0 %
Franklin 20%
Gert 0%
Harold 10%
Idalia 40%
Jose 0%


Nothing has a solid case in the Atlantic as of yet.

[Ntxw]

Atlantic gets a lot of attention with landfalls but Saola is a monster moving towards the Pearl River Delta region (huge population center including Hong Kong). Maybe retirement?

[Torino]

I don't think we will see Idalia again in 2029. Damage seems pretty heavy and worse than Sally's, besides the historical reasons for the region.
The name "Issa" has been used quite a lot lately, so it might be a strong candidate to replace Idalia.

Hilary though, that one is staying.

[chaser1]

Isis??

Not sure if that's a joke, but Isis was actually used on the EPAC naming lists before. It was taken out before the start of the 2016 season when it was supposed to be used again, for obvious reasons. It didn't even go through the proper retirement procedure (i.e. not retired due to heavy damage, and not decided after the season when it was previously used).

The EPAC has a history of retiring names that were just plain bad. Two other examples are Adolph and Knut (replaced with Alvin and Kenneth respectively). Honestly I have no clue who thought that it would be a good idea to have those original names on the EPAC naming list lol

No, not meant to be a joke. The great majority of population around the Atlantic basin would likely have zero awareness of named storms from other basins. Frankly, I could not recall whether or not that name had ever been used in our basin.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I think we really aren't at the point yet where we have to worry about replacing female "I" names. Replacement male "I" names are getting scarce, but there are lots of female I's left.

These are the female "I" names which were given to 100 or more girls born in the USA in 2022 which could work. I have put forms which are different spellings of the same pronunciation together:

Iliana, Iman, Imogen, Inaaya/Inaya, Inara, Indie/Indy, Indigo, Iqra, Irie, Irina, Isa, Isabella/Izabella, Isadora, Isha, Isra, Itazyana, Itzel, Iva, Ivana/Ivanna, Ivey/Ivy, Ivory, Iyanna, Izzy

And I didn't include above the names India, Indiana, Ireland, Ila/Isla/Iyla, and Italy because I don't think it's a good idea to give them to hurricanes as their identity with common geographic names could become confusing to people in news reports. And of course there are names like Ilona, Imogene, Ina, Inga, Io and Ita which are out of fashion for human babies at the moment but which still might work.

I'm not sure it's a good idea to name an Atlantic hurricane Indira -- it's actually quite rare as a given name in the USA (only 25 born in 2022) and there might be political objections from the Indian government. I think it's best to wait until Trinidad (only country in the Atlantic basin that would have many women named Indira) asks for a replacement name to use it.

My personal choice would be Ivy. It's short and well-known (at least in English speaking countries). Iva, Izzy, Itzel, Inga, and Iliana, about in that order, also would be very good choices, I think.

[Teban54]

I think we really aren't at the point yet where we have to worry about replacing female "I" names. Replacement male "I" names are getting scarce, but there are lots of female I's left.

These are the female "I" names which were given to 100 or more girls born in the USA in 2022 which could work. I have put forms which are different spellings of the same pronunciation together:

Iliana, Iman, Imogen, Inaaya/Inaya, Inara, Indie/Indy, Indigo, Iqra, Irie, Irina, Isa, Isabella/Izabella, Isadora, Isha, Isra, Itazyana, Itzel, Iva, Ivana/Ivanna, Ivey/Ivy, Ivory, Iyanna, Izzy

And I didn't include above the names India, Indiana, Ireland, Ila/Isla/Iyla, and Italy because I don't think it's a good idea to give them to hurricanes as their identity with common geographic names could become confusing to people in news reports. And of course there are names like Ilona, Imogene, Ina, Inga, Io and Ita which are out of fashion for human babies at the moment but which still might work.

I'm not sure it's a good idea to name an Atlantic hurricane Indira -- it's actually quite rare as a given name in the USA (only 25 born in 2022) and there might be political objections from the Indian government. I think it's best to wait until Trinidad (only country in the Atlantic basin that would have many women named Indira) asks for a replacement name to use it.

My personal choice would be Ivy. It's short and well-known (at least in English speaking countries). Iva, Izzy, Itzel, Inga, and Iliana, about in that order, also would be very good choices, I think.

Note that Isla and Izzy are on auxiliary lists for Atlantic and EPAC respectively, while Iliana has a similar variant spelt Ileana that's on the EPAC naming list.

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

Note that Isla and Izzy are on auxiliary lists for Atlantic and EPAC respectively, while Iliana has a similar variant spent Ileana that's on the EPAC naming list.

Sorry, I forgot about the auxiliary lists (didn't even realize they had one for the EPAC now.) Iliana and Ileana would be pronounced differently in Spanish but I suppose most English speakers would give them the same pronunciation.

[Teban54]

Preliminary estimates of Idalia's damage as reported by the Guardian:

Initial estimates at the cost of the damage varied from $9bn to about $20bn

If true, this is above the damage of Sally ($7.3 billion), the costliest Atlantic storm to not have its name retired.

[Category5Kaiju]

Hopefully not, but if some of the more southward models were to verify for 95L, there's a chance we may need to start thinking about some new male L names.

[wwizard]

I think we really aren't at the point yet where we have to worry about replacing female "I" names. Replacement male "I" names are getting scarce, but there are lots of female I's left.

These are the female "I" names which were given to 100 or more girls born in the USA in 2022 which could work. I have put forms which are different spellings of the same pronunciation together:

Iliana, Iman, Imogen, Inaaya/Inaya, Inara, Indie/Indy, Indigo, Iqra, Irie, Irina, Isa, Isabella/Izabella, Isadora, Isha, Isra, Itazyana, Itzel, Iva, Ivana/Ivanna, Ivey/Ivy, Ivory, Iyanna, Izzy

And I didn't include above the names India, Indiana, Ireland, Ila/Isla/Iyla, and Italy because I don't think it's a good idea to give them to hurricanes as their identity with common geographic names could become confusing to people in news reports. And of course there are names like Ilona, Imogene, Ina, Inga, Io and Ita which are out of fashion for human babies at the moment but which still might work.

I'm not sure it's a good idea to name an Atlantic hurricane Indira -- it's actually quite rare as a given name in the USA (only 25 born in 2022) and there might be political objections from the Indian government. I think it's best to wait until Trinidad (only country in the Atlantic basin that would have many women named Indira) asks for a replacement name to use it.

My personal choice would be Ivy. It's short and well-known (at least in English speaking countries). Iva, Izzy, Itzel, Inga, and Iliana, about in that order, also would be very good choices, I think.

The letters Q, U, X, Y and Z are already not used in the Atlantic.
I would suggest adding I to that list but then use each letter once for each of the 6 lists.
Example, next year instead of having a name for I, I would be left off and Q used instead. In 2025, no I, no Q, and U is used. 2026 X, 2027 Y, 2028 Z, then in 2029 go with I again.

That way I only has a chance to be retired once every 6 years, and the other letters have a far less chance of being retired since they are further down the list, and still a once in 6 years chance.

[ElectricStorm]

I still think the NHC should switch to a WPAC style naming list, where it just rotates and picks up wherever the previous season left off.

So if Phillippe is the last storm this year, then the first TS next year would be Rina.

But I doubt the NHC will do that anytime soon

[ljmac75]

If Idalia really caused $10 billion+ damages, I can't see the name not being retired. Of course, I might have said the same thing about Sally a few years ago. Admittedly, $10 billion feels like less than it really is due to the recent string of $20 billion+ hurricanes hitting the US, and I suppose that could factor in to the decision.

[WalterWhite]

At this point in the season, the only name that is probably going to be retired is Idalia. It caused >$9 billion in damage, and Floridians will forever associate the name "Idalia" with this hurricane. I doubt Franklin will be retired; it caused significantly less damage, and the bar for retirement seems to be so much higher for storms that impact Hispaniola; case in point, Gordon was not retired in 1994.

[Tekken_Guy]

Idalia is definitely a strong contender for retirement. But depending on damage estimates it may not be a done deal. Idalia feels in the range of “mid-level” disasters like Dennis or Frances rather than historical catastrophes like Ian or Harvey or even ones on the tier of Michael or Laura. These types usually got retired but if the bar is higher, like with Sally, it might have a chance at returning for 2029.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point in the season, the only name that is probably going to be retired is Idalia. It caused >$9 billion in damage, and Floridians will forever associate the name "Idalia" with this hurricane. I doubt Franklin will be retired; it caused significantly less damage, and the bar for retirement seems to be so much higher for storms that impact Hispaniola; case in point, Gordon was not retired in 1994.

I highly doubt Franklin is getting retired as I have not heard anything about major loss of life in Haiti and DR, let alone damages. Gordon 1994 is arguably the most baffling un-retired storm imho as it caused thousands of deaths (even more than some of the most recent disastrous hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, Dorian, etc.), yet somehow it escaped retirement. I have no idea what happened there.

[ljmac75]

At this point in the season, the only name that is probably going to be retired is Idalia. It caused >$9 billion in damage, and Floridians will forever associate the name "Idalia" with this hurricane. I doubt Franklin will be retired; it caused significantly less damage, and the bar for retirement seems to be so much higher for storms that impact Hispaniola; case in point, Gordon was not retired in 1994.

I highly doubt Franklin is getting retired as I have not heard anything about major loss of life in Haiti and DR, let alone damages. Gordon 1994 is arguably the most baffling un-retired storm imho as it caused thousands of deaths (even more than some of the most recent disastrous hurricanes like Harvey, Irma, Dorian, etc.), yet somehow it escaped retirement. I have no idea what happened there.

Story I've heard, and I don't have the original source for this so I can't guarantee it's accurate, is that Haiti (where nearly all the deaths occurred) did not send a delegate to the WMO hurricane meeting where retirement was discussed and no other country requested retirement. The storm did cause significant damage in Florida, but this was the same year Alberto caused major flooding in Georgia and was not retired either, so it's not a big surprise that the US didn't make the request either.

[FireRat]

I still think the NHC should switch to a WPAC style naming list, where it just rotates and picks up wherever the previous season left off.

So if Phillippe is the last storm this year, then the first TS next year would be Rina.

But I doubt the NHC will do that anytime soon

This. Right. Here.
I was thinking the same thing, perhaps we should switch to the WPAC naming system. It is very difficult that we will see another A name retired in the future, let alone a "big one", with modern technology sniffing out the A name in June or earlier.

Perhaps the "I-curse" could lead to this change... much like 2020 led to the change involving Greek names.