Poll: Will the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season be hyperactive? (>159.6 ACE)

[WalterWhite]

Cycloneye making a poll about this question. Will the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season br hyperactive with 159.6 ACE? The poll closes for voting on September 10th at 7:59 PM EDT.

[Hurricane2022]

Always not possible, but always not impossible.
I Voted for No.

[IcyTundra]

I sure hope not. If we could get a 2010 type season with little to no impacts for the rest of the season I wouldn't mind a hyperactive season but that is pretty rare. I think it will be above average though,

[Category5Kaiju]

Maybe. Maybe not. I think it will be very important to see if we can get any long-tracking , Cat 3+ systems in the future. Those systems could definitely make or break the hyperactivity threshold.

[WalterWhite]

This season is currently at 11/3/2/49.6 as of today, August 31. No storms have formed as of today.

We can get a realistic minimum total storm count, total hurricane count, total major hurricane count, and total ACE estimates for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The following are the seasonal statistics for every hurricane season from 2016 to 2022 starting from August 31:

2016: 7/3/3/106.9
2017: 8/5/3/194.6
2018: 10/6/2/115.7
2019: 13/4/2/111.9
2020: 17/10/6/137.4
2021: 10/3/2/101.1
2022: 11/8/2/91.8

Currently, the minimum that could be expected for the rest of the season based on the past seven seasons is 7 more storms (in line with 2016), 3 more hurricanes (in line with 2016 and 2021), 2 more major hurricanes (in line with 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022), and 91.8 square hectoknots more ACE (in line with 2022). This gives a seasonal total of 18 storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 141.4 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season in the above-average category.

The average totals for the seven most recent seasons from August 31 and beyond are 11 more storms, 6 more hurricanes, 3 more major hurricanes, and 122.8 more square hectoknots of ACE. This gives a seasonal total of 22 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 172.4 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season in the hyperactive category.

Using only the +ENSO years (i.e. 2018 and 2019), the average post-August 30 season totals are 11 more storms, 5 more hurricanes, 2 more major hurricanes, and 113.8 more square hectoknots of ACE. This gives a seasonal total of 22 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 162.8 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season barely in the hyperactive category.

Minimum expected season totals: 18 storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, 141.4 ACE (above-average)
Average expected season totals: 22 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, 172.4 ACE (hyperactive)
Average expected season totals (only considering +ENSO years): 22 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, 162.8 ACE (hyperactive)

Unlike past +ENSO seasons, such as 2002 and 2004, having a +ENSO during peak season has not been especially detrimental for late season activity in modern times, especially with the presence of a standing wave in West Africa. Regardless of ENSO state, this standing wave has ensured an active September in the North Atlantic for years. There are no currently indications that 2023 would buck the trend of having a West African standing wave, so it stands to reason that the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season would also feature an active September.

There is a realistic chance this could be the first hyperactive +ENSO season since 2004. At this point, based on the analogs, it is probably a tossup as to whether or not 2023 will achieve hyperactivity.

[ElectricStorm]

I voted no. I think we'll end up at slightly above average to above average but I don't think we'll get to hyperactive territory.

[aspen]

I voted no, but we’re on track to surpass 2022 in almost every metric. We should break 100 ACE if that long-tracking MDR major verifies.

[LemieT]

I voted no... but some well seasoned hickory-smoked crow might not be too bad a dish on Nov 30th...

[Monsoonjr99]

No guarantees, but after seeing how the Atlantic woke up this late August with two majors and now model signs for a significant Cabo Verde long tracker, I'm leaning towards yes.

Tho interesting to note how closely 2023 so far has paralleled 2021 despite the opposite ENSO state. I wonder how the late season might stack up.

[WalterWhite]

No guarantees, but after seeing how the Atlantic woke up this late August with two majors and now model signs for a significant Cabo Verde long tracker, I'm leaning towards yes.

Tho interesting to note how closely 2023 so far has paralleled 2021 despite the opposite ENSO state. I wonder how the late season might stack up.

I think 2016 is a closer parallel, especially given that Alex (2016) = 01L (2023), Gaston (2016) = Franklin (2023), and Hermine (2016) = Idalia (2023).

[Old-TimeCane]

I think 2016 is a closer parallel, especially given that Alex (2016) = 01L (2023), Gaston (2016) = Franklin (2023), and Hermine (2016) = Idalia (2023).

I voted no.

Based on your parallel, Nigel sounds like a lot of fun in the upcoming weeks...

[dexterlabio]

Okay so hypothetical question: if 2023 indeed turned out hyperactive ACE-wise for the Atlantic inspite of moderate-strong El Niño, and then transitioned to La Niña by next year, what are the odds that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more hyperactive?

Also, applying the "two years after El Niño's end," what are the odds that the 2025 ATL season could beat 2023's hyperactivity? Again, hypothetically speaking.

[Steve]

No guarantees, but after seeing how the Atlantic woke up this late August with two majors and now model signs for a significant Cabo Verde long tracker, I'm leaning towards yes.

Tho interesting to note how closely 2023 so far has paralleled 2021 despite the opposite ENSO state. I wonder how the late season might stack up.

Definitely going to pile up ACE in the open ocean next 2-3 weeks. I still don’t think it’s going to be hyper but not a 0% chance for sure.

[IcyTundra]

No guarantees, but after seeing how the Atlantic woke up this late August with two majors and now model signs for a significant Cabo Verde long tracker, I'm leaning towards yes.

Tho interesting to note how closely 2023 so far has paralleled 2021 despite the opposite ENSO state. I wonder how the late season might stack up.

Well the 2021 season completely shut down after Sam so it wouldn't be too hard to have a more active late season than 2021.

[Category5Kaiju]

We're already at about 100 ACE now, we still have a long-track Cape Verde hurricane in sight, and who knows what's going to come after that.

Nothing's set in stone yet, but I'm starting to think that hyperactivity ACE-wise may not be as far-fetched anymore.

[FireRat]

Okay so hypothetical question: if 2023 indeed turned out hyperactive ACE-wise for the Atlantic inspite of moderate-strong El Niño, and then transitioned to La Niña by next year, what are the odds that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more hyperactive?

Also, applying the "two years after El Niño's end," what are the odds that the 2025 ATL season could beat 2023's hyperactivity? Again, hypothetically speaking.

I've been wondering the same too! Hypothetically yep, the next two seasons would be incredible if '23 was this busy despite the Nino. '24 would be nuts and well '25, gulp.