SFLcane wrote:REDHurricane wrote:SFLcane wrote:
They're always warm though...GFS produces about 100 out of every 1 TCs that happen there.
But we're already seeing strong GFS/Canadian ensemble support in the southern Caribbean less than 10 days out, and even the EPS is showing 40-50% odds for TC development in the same spot over the next ~12 days. Like I said, nothing concrete to worry about yet, but if I lived anywhere near the Caribbean I know I would be keeping a very close eye on this potential system, as it certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a strong Caribbean hurricane to form in late October/early November.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/streaming/20231025-2020/e9/ps2png-worker-commands-74964888f5-hgff2-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-QUBJAJ.png
That's over a day old at this point and honestly weeklies aren't all that useful for this one. We have the 2-week EPS
As I wrote before, I'm not implying that anything is going to develop for certain, just that all of the major models seem to be at least hinting at potentially favorable conditions over (highly) anomalously warm water in the Caribbean 7-9 days out and that people should keep a very close eye on it over the next several days. And as we just learned yesterday, the models are far from 100% reliable with regards to intensity, this year in particular, and climatology plus hot water plus even a moderately conducive background state suggest that it would make logical sense that a system might try to develop there regardless of model support.
