Texas Spring 2024

[Texas Snowman]

Regarding the May 3, 1999 F5 tornado that struck Bridge Creek and Moore, Oklahoma, I watch this KFOR live coverage video from time to time. Horrible and fascinating all at the same time…

[Youtube] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8ppRelvfNb0[/Youtube]

[bubba hotep]

Crazy....tornado has done a loop and is now headed NW back toward the direction where it formed. Hopefully that will weaken it as it gets cutoff from the inflow.

Devient Motion, my favorite

[Texas Snowman]

Quite concerning since the tornado is “over” Robert Lee, a town of 1,049 people…

——————

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
510 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

The National Weather Service in San Angelo has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... Central Coke County in west central Texas...

* Until 600 PM CDT.

* At 509 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Robert Lee, moving northwest at 15 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible.

* The tornado will be near... Robert Lee and E.V. Spence Reservoir Near Paint Creek Recreation Area around 515 PM CDT. Sanco around 520 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include The Intersection Of Highway 208 And Ranch Road 2662 and The Intersection Of Highway 158 And Ranch Road 2059.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground. Take immediate tornado precautions. This is an emergency situation.

&&

TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 134DEG 15KT 3187 10048

TORNADO...OBSERVED
TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN

[Anti-freeze]

Radar looked like that tornado near Robert Lee ("The dirt shall rise again"?) did a u-turn and headed back nw. A Benny Hill tornado track.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like some unplanned rain is moving into Ft Worth

[mmmmsnouts]

Looks like some unplanned rain is moving into Ft Worth

Another warned storm that was well outside of a watch box. It’s genuinely baffling how much rain forecasting in particular has fallen off over the years. I can’t figure it out because everyone has fallen off at the same rate. Bad data? Different models? Different forecasting method? Not adapting forecasts to a changing (warmer, more humid) climate?

[Gotwood]

Looks like some unplanned rain is moving into Ft Worth

Another warned storm that was well outside of a watch box. It’s genuinely baffling how much rain forecasting in particular has fallen off over the years. I can’t figure it out because everyone has fallen off at the same rate. Bad data? Different models? Different forecasting method? Not adapting forecasts to a changing (warmer, more humid) climate?

I was just having this same discussion earlier. I will assume it’s probably just putting too much emphasis on imperfect models. A lot of that is our own faults by following them lol.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like some unplanned rain is moving into Ft Worth

Another warned storm that was well outside of a watch box. It’s genuinely baffling how much rain forecasting in particular has fallen off over the years. I can’t figure it out because everyone has fallen off at the same rate. Bad data? Different models? Different forecasting method? Not adapting forecasts to a changing (warmer, more humid) climate?

I think you might just be paying attention to it now, more than in the past. If you want to rag on the inconsistencies of the CAMs, I would probably agree, but forecasting of rain and severe weather has improved by every metric over the years.

The reason why we’re seeing warnings where they aren’t expected, deviant tornado motion, and stronger tornadoes than one would expect over the last few days is because because these are low forcing and high cape events. These storms are not being synoptically driven by sweeping storm systems like they were on 4/26 and 4/27, but are instead driven by mesoscale dynamics and favorable boundary interactions that are too small for even the higher resolution models to accurately depict. We are getting to the time of year where setups like this are more common, and often result in storm complexes that either survive a lot longer than expected, or fall apart unexpectedly, due to those smaller scale factors.

What’s unusual imo is that there have been so many favorable boundary interactions resulting in significant tornadoes over the past couple days (Loveland, Hawley, Robert Lee) that seem to exceed what the parameter space has to offer. Even the weak Joplin tornado the other day was weird because it was completely outside the tornado risk area if I remember correctly. There’s been a lot of chatter from mets on Twitter that these will serve as great case studies for further research

[bubba hotep]

Another wild day on tap for West Texas

[txtwister78]

Models beginning to lock in on some decent rainfall totals across a good chunk of South-Central Texas including SA metro overnight into Sunday afternoon. Need this one to hit before we go into what looks to be a mini dry spell next week.

[Stratton23]

After this weekends rain, id he fine with not seeing anymore rain for a few weeks , exceeded over 8 inches here, send the rest to central or west texas, se texas does not need anymore rain, unless you live at the coast

[Ntxw]

No major heat ridge on the horizon, yet. The past two years have featured near record heat in May.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like some unplanned rain is moving into Ft Worth

Another warned storm that was well outside of a watch box. It’s genuinely baffling how much rain forecasting in particular has fallen off over the years. I can’t figure it out because everyone has fallen off at the same rate. Bad data? Different models? Different forecasting method? Not adapting forecasts to a changing (warmer, more humid) climate?

I think you might just be paying attention to it now, more than in the past. If you want to rag on the inconsistencies of the CAMs, I would probably agree, but forecasting of rain and severe weather has improved by every metric over the years.

The reason why we’re seeing warnings where they aren’t expected, deviant tornado motion, and stronger tornadoes than one would expect over the last few days is because because these are low forcing and high cape events. These storms are not being synoptically driven by sweeping storm systems like they were on 4/26 and 4/27, but are instead driven by mesoscale dynamics and favorable boundary interactions that are too small for even the higher resolution models to accurately depict. We are getting to the time of year where setups like this are more common, and often result in storm complexes that either survive a lot longer than expected, or fall apart unexpectedly, due to those smaller scale factors.

What’s unusual imo is that there have been so many favorable boundary interactions resulting in significant tornadoes over the past couple days (Loveland, Hawley, Robert Lee) that seem to exceed what the parameter space has to offer. Even the weak Joplin tornado the other day was weird because it was completely outside the tornado risk area if I remember correctly. There’s been a lot of chatter from mets on Twitter that these will serve as great case studies for further research

Thank you for the great explanation.

[ElectricStorm]

Monday looks interesting but I'm not super concerned yet. The more potent environment should be further north up in KS but storm mode up there should go linear pretty quickly with the meridional flow. Further south in OK I think we could see some issues with capping/cloud cover since the stronger forcing is further north. Although if any sustained supercells do form there would be a strong tornado threat. Most guidance that I've seen doesn't have much for central OK so I'm a little surprised they expanded the enhanced risk that far south. We'll see what CAMs have later this evening though.

Subject to change of course

[bubba hotep]

FWD expanded the flood watch to include all of the DFW metro area.

[Cpv17]

After this weekends rain, id he fine with not seeing anymore rain for a few weeks , exceeded over 8 inches here, send the rest to central or west texas, se texas does not need anymore rain, unless you live at the coast

I’ve only had .10” and I don’t live along the coast… several other areas in southeast Texas have barely had anything.

[Cpv17]

Monday looks interesting but I'm not super concerned yet. The more potent environment should be further north up in KS but storm mode up there should go linear pretty quickly with the meridional flow. Further south in OK I think we could see some issues with capping/cloud cover since the stronger forcing is further north. Although if any sustained supercells do form there would be a strong tornado threat. Most guidance that I've seen doesn't have much for central OK so I'm a little surprised they expanded the enhanced risk that far south. We'll see what CAMs have later this evening though.

Subject to change of course

Ryan Hall and POW Ponder on YouTube thinks this has more potential than anything we’ve seen yet.

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 if i could send the rain you’re way i definitely would! Everything is so water logged here, the ground cant take much more here for flooding at least on a minor scale, still concerning to see some areas pick up over 2 feet of rain from a non tropical system, definitely makes me at least a little worried of what could come potentially during what looks to be a very busy hurricane season

[ElectricStorm]

Monday looks interesting but I'm not super concerned yet. The more potent environment should be further north up in KS but storm mode up there should go linear pretty quickly with the meridional flow. Further south in OK I think we could see some issues with capping/cloud cover since the stronger forcing is further north. Although if any sustained supercells do form there would be a strong tornado threat. Most guidance that I've seen doesn't have much for central OK so I'm a little surprised they expanded the enhanced risk that far south. We'll see what CAMs have later this evening though.

Subject to change of course

Ryan Hall and POW Ponder on YouTube thinks this has more potential than anything we’ve seen yet.

I think Tuesday and Wednesday could be pretty big but I'm a little iffy on Monday for now. Could change of course

[rwfromkansas]

FWD expanded the flood watch to include all of the DFW metro area.

Is tonight’s rain still supposed to be south of DFW?

Their updated graphic only shows .50-1.00 total for most of DFW.