Hurricanes and Florida

[EDR1222]

It is well documented that since 1995, the majority of hurricane seasons have been extremely active. However, the once constant that seems to remain in place protecting Florida are the east coast troughs. Thank goodness for this. William Gray along with others believe this trend will not continue. He talks about the extremely active period of the 1920's, 1930's and 1940's where Florida was supposedly a frequent target for major hurricanes moving in from the east and affecting areas like Miami and West Palm Beach. I realize this scenario is possible, as was the case with Andrew. It is important to remember however that the active part of the season is late August through Early October. During this time of the year, the troughs are a frequent occurence along the east coast. And they have nothing to do with La Nina or El Nino. An unusually strong high pressure with the western edge well into Florida at just the right time is what it would take to cause a landfalling hurricane in the southeast or east central part of the state. This is a very uncommon event during the late summer. Even when it does set up, it is very short lived and the chances of a hurricane being in just the right place at the right time is very unlikely. Andrew proved it to be possible. But in reality, Andrew was the only major hurricane to strike the east coast of Florida since Hurricane Betsey in 1965. Since the threat is there, precautions must be taken for sure. But should data and statistics from the early part of the century be somewhat suspect? East coast troughs signal nothing more than the changing of the seasons. There existence is persistant throughout active and inactive hurricane seasons. Look at the extremely active year of 1995. Remember, Erin was at the last days of July and the first of August. Still very safe from troughs digging in. And Opal was a gulf storm, so that doesn't really count in regards to this discussion. But just look at the many atlantic storms of that year. Humberto, Iris, Karen, Luis, Marilyn, and Felix. The troughs were consistently there right where they are suppose to be. And in years where there are stronger bermuda highs, the storms still stay on a course where they turn north well east of our area, with a typical setup of a trough eroding the ridge in just about the same place all the time, leading storms into the outerbanks of North Carolina or eastward away from them.
I would love to hear others insight on this topic. This is just what I have observed since I was a kid in the late 1970's.

Are there any studies looking at troughs and weather patterns that steer storms that anyone knows about?

Thanks

Ed

[vbhoutex]

Ed, I find your discussion thorough and very interesting. The point you bring up about the troughs being a normal late season occurence can not be refuted, IMO. My thoughts on this tend to run to what is going to be stronger-the Bermuda high if it is far enough S and W to be a factor or the troughs? IE, which would end up being the control on the steering more often? Also do you feel that the early season is the time these areas would need to be more concerned? That is something that could be deduced from your discussion.

Next question for you? Are you Ed from ECTWC?

And last but not least, WELCOME TO STORM2K!!!

[Patrick99]

I have actually thought that we are at much higher risk for strong late-season Caribbean storms coming north than Atlantic storms coming west. One of these days, a Mitch or a Michelle is going to slam right into S. FL in October/November. I am surprised that hasn't happened in a long time. Obviously, Michelle was very close.

As for the others, what about Georges? All it would have taken was for it to be a few miles north, missing the DR and Cuba, and it would have stayed as a very strong hurricane and crossed right over S. FL. It seems like every year (and this is just from my own observation, living here), there is a period of several weeks during August and September when there is a strong Bermuda high that *would* drive storms into Florida, but there's never any storms out there to take advantage of it. Yet when a trough starts to dive down, there's often a hurricane approaching the Bahamas that will give us a relatively close call, but again be turned north. I wonder why *that* is?

[Guest]

This luck wont last forever,hold on to your hat this season its gonna be a bumpy ride IMO.

[Guest]

keep in mind that many other weather patterns play a major roll on what another feature such as the Atlantic Ridge does. A nuetral or slightly negative NAO will tend to give us a weaker Azores High. In turn once again, we get a more persistant Bermuda High, thus the case this season.
If we use history, especially the most recent, we will see that when the Azores High is strong, we have a stronger TUTT, troughs tend to dig deeper into the Southeastern United States, and if there are any tropical systems, they are turned away.
But, many people will mention Andrew. When hurricane Andrew was moving westnorthwest, and turned northwest and began to weaken a number of things were occuring. One, a trough was passing by to the storms northwest, and didn't have the strength to pull it northward. This was due to a strengthening high pressure behind the trough. This was the same scenerio of Dora in 1964!
So a trough may move through, and as Mia_canetrakker stated, it's the luck.
No matter where you live along the coast, the key is to be prepared. What if the trough wasn't strong enought to turn Hugo, Bertha, Floyd, Isabel, this would be a different discussion. We would be discussing why isn't there a front or something to turn a storm..
Lets keep in mind that if a storm is forecast to turn, lets at least keep our guard up till it passes our latitude!

[Guest]

Well Said

[HurricaneBill]

Lets keep in mind that if a storm is forecast to turn, lets at least keep our guard up till it passes our latitude!

And hope it doesn't pull a "Betsy".

[boca]

hurricanes always curve north before getting to Fl, its always a given ,even I'm becoming complacent.

[Josephine96]

Boca.. Complacency is bad lol.. Yes hurricanes do always turn.. But 1 of these days.. it is not going to turn... Or 1 of these days we'll get slammed from the Gulf instead of the Atlantic...

I know I say it every year lol.. But this could be the year

[boca]

I'm really not complacent

[vbhoutex]

I'm really not complacent

You have never been complacent in your life Boca!!! Tell the people here what one of your jobs is!!!!

[Guest]

hurricanes always curve north before getting to Fl, its always a given ,even I'm becoming complacent.

I wouldnt say always,Andrew sure didnt & countless hurricanes in the 20th century didnt including some of the strongest to ever hit the U.S.

& like Joe96 said they can come out of the Caribbean too.

I know it hasnt happened in a while but that WILL end eventually either from the ATL or Carib..Not many areas in the U.S can say that.

[wxman57]

...... This is just what I have observed since I was a kid in the late 1970's.

Thanks

Ed

There's your problem right there - your perspective is skewed toward what YOU remember since the 70s, which is relatively recent history. Since you were a kid, the Florida Peninsula was hit by only a single major hurricane - Andrew in 1992. But for most of your life, the Atlantic has been in a 25-year period of below normal SSTs. Lower SSTs mean about 50% less major hurricanes and a significantly lower threat of a major hurricane landfall in Florida. But in 1995, the Atlantic heated up again, possibly the beginning of a 3-4 decade period of above-normal SSTs. The last time this happened was from 1926 through 1969 (44years). During the period from 1944-1969 alone (just 25 years), the FL Peninsula was hit by 12 major hurricanes - one every 2 years.

So what's happening now? Well from 1995-2003 we've seen the formation of 32 major hurricanes but only 3 landfalls. Climo says at least 10 of those should have made landfall. But from 1995-2003 the North Atlantic oscillation has been mostly negative, meaning weaker Bermuda High and recurvature prior to reaching the U.S. This is what you've been observing in recent years, but things are changing.

Very recently, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (related to SSTs in the eastern Pacific west of California) has switched to cold-phase. This mult-decadal oscillation has not been in a prolonged cold phase in combination with above-normal Atlantic SSTs since the 1940s-1960s. This PDO affects the trof/ridge relationship downstream. I.E., that protective east coast trof will likely be on its way out. Already, I'm seeing signs of a stronger Bermuda High ridging farther west.

This is exactly the setup we had for the 1940s through the 1960s when Florida was absolutely pummeled by major hurricanes. And that's why I say to ignore the numbers forecast and look at the patterns. I think we'll be seeing less storms in the near future but more major hurricanes and a significantly increased risk of major hurricane landfalls, particularly in Florida.

[boca]

I admit I've become complacent to a certain extend when it comes to hurricanes because of the Florida luck,but like other people said it will run out. Yes I work for Home Depot and when their is a hurricane watch everybody including myself help people out with lumber until their is a warning.

[EDR1222]

Hey Everyone,

Thanks for all the good information. This is just something I have been curious about. I read an article written by Stanley Goldberg, who is with the hurricane research division in Miami. He discusses the east coast troughs. He believes that there strength and frequency could lessen in the coming years. Lets hope that he is wrong. It is interesting to look at the archive information for the storms of 1933. You can see this at the NHC site archives. Just about every storm of that extremely active year moved generally west. None of them really turned until they were past Florida and the Carribean. That scenario could be really scary. And like some of you said, all it takes is one. Thanks for the welcome to the forum vbhoutex!

[Patrick99]

I think people are most complacent about the October/November Caribbean storms. Generally, I think people get a little too excited in August and September about storms 1,000 miles away out in the Atlantic, and are a little too nonchalant about storms just a couple hundred miles under Cuba in Oct/Nov. Some people seem to think that September spells the end of the hurricane season, even though we've had some very strong late-season storms down there lately, and one weaker (Irene) that made landfall.

I don't know why this is, there's plenty of historical precedent for storms down there to come up and hit FL late in the season.

[vbhoutex]

I'm really not complacent

You have never been complacent in your life Boca!!! Tell the people here what one of your jobs is!!!!

I was talking about your volunteer job!!!

[stormchazer]

I moved to Charleston in 1991 as it continued to recover from Hugo. Folks I me there said they had thought it would move pats and into the Outer Banks like many storms had since their last major direct hit in the 1800s.

It has happened before and will again. All the complex patterns will fall into place and Miami, or Tampa, or Jax will receive a direct hit from a major. Laugh off the possibility but pay attention, because the impossibility has happened more then once where it pertains to Mother Nature.

[Guest]

...... This is just what I have observed since I was a kid in the late 1970's.

Thanks

Ed

There's your problem right there - your perspective is skewed toward what YOU remember since the 70s, which is relatively recent history. Since you were a kid, the Florida Peninsula was hit by only a single major hurricane - Andrew in 1992. But for most of your life, the Atlantic has been in a 25-year period of below normal SSTs. Lower SSTs mean about 50% less major hurricanes and a significantly lower threat of a major hurricane landfall in Florida. But in 1995, the Atlantic heated up again, possibly the beginning of a 3-4 decade period of above-normal SSTs. The last time this happened was from 1926 through 1969 (44years). During the period from 1944-1969 alone (just 25 years), the FL Peninsula was hit by 12 major hurricanes - one every 2 years.

So what's happening now? Well from 1995-2003 we've seen the formation of 32 major hurricanes but only 3 landfalls. Climo says at least 10 of those should have made landfall. But from 1995-2003 the North Atlantic oscillation has been mostly negative, meaning weaker Bermuda High and recurvature prior to reaching the U.S. This is what you've been observing in recent years, but things are changing.

Very recently, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (related to SSTs in the eastern Pacific west of California) has switched to cold-phase. This mult-decadal oscillation has not been in a prolonged cold phase in combination with above-normal Atlantic SSTs since the 1940s-1960s. This PDO affects the trof/ridge relationship downstream. I.E., that protective east coast trof will likely be on its way out. Already, I'm seeing signs of a stronger Bermuda High ridging farther west.

This is exactly the setup we had for the 1940s through the 1960s when Florida was absolutely pummeled by major hurricanes. And that's why I say to ignore the numbers forecast and look at the patterns. I think we'll be seeing less storms in the near future but more major hurricanes and a significantly increased risk of major hurricane landfalls, particularly in Florida.

You touch on many great points & I agree with it all.I myself don't care how long its been since the last hurricane or how few there have been as whole here in the last few decades,I get ready each year like if it happens every year.

I was wondering what your take is on many of the forecasts issued by individuals all over the internet that believe that there will be more recurvatures once again this year.They predict that Florida particularly the EC has little chance of being affected by a hurricane this year...You seem to think otherwise.

[vbhoutex]

What site are you seeing this at MIA? I don't surf other sites a lot since I tend to be pretty busy here. That is really the first I have heard of anyone saying there will be more recurvatures than normal with no EC hits!! And I am in contact with quite a few people about those types of things.