"I wouldn't be shocked if we had six."

[Zadok]

Lurking storm blocker bad omen for season


The Bermuda High, which steered hurricanes toward Florida last year, remains in a bad place.


By Robert P. King

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer


Monday, February 21, 2005


HANG ON TO THAT PLYWOOD — Florida may be in for yet another angst-filled summer.


Mere months after the ill-fated hurricane season that sent Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne flying through the state like back-to-back-to-back-to-back hand grenades, the world's weather patterns again appear to be aligning against us.



 Bermuda High

See how a high-pressure ridge helped steer four hurricanes into Florida last year.


El Niño, which could deter the storms from spawning, is waning. A decade-long trend of warmer, hurricane-friendly temperatures continues in the North Atlantic's waters.


And, perhaps most worrisome for Florida, the Bermuda High still lurks in the western Atlantic.


The subtropical ridge of high pressure became infamous in 2004 as one of the prime villains behind Florida's repeated pummeling. Strong and unusually close to the southeastern United States — at least by the standards of the past decade or so — the ridge squatted off the coast like a surly bouncer, barring hurricanes from sweeping north up the Atlantic.


Instead, it shoved the storms toward Florida. Again, again, again and again.


Guess what? The Bermuda High is still in roughly the same place, according to the National Weather Service.


If the high lingers there through the summer and fall, Florida could be nature's punching bag for yet another hurricane season.


Experts say it's too far soon to tell whether that dire scenario will occur. But it's not too soon to prepare for it.


"If in fact the subtropical (Bermuda) High is going to be more frequently positioned farther south and west like it was in 2004, then one clearly has to be concerned," said James Elsner, a Florida State University hurricane researcher.


Jim Lushine, a meteorologist for the weather service's Miami office, offered one hint to watch for: If May is unusually dry, as it was last year, that could be evidence that the high is still lingering — and an omen of bad things to come.


"I'm not saying we'll have four hurricanes in one year," he said. Then again, "I wouldn't be shocked if we had six."


Others cautioned that the high's behavior was just one of many weird occurrences in 2004, a year so off-the-wall bizarre that a hurricane hit Brazil — in March. (The storm, unofficially named Catarina, was the first hurricane in at least four decades in the South Atlantic.) The Earth's climate is so complex that scientists don't understand everything that goes into creating a vicious hurricane season.


"You have to have so many conditions to be perfect" to see another season like last year's, said Brian Bossak, a researcher for the U.S. Geological Survey in St. Petersburg. "Even if one condition were conducive to a repeat, everything else might not be."


Regardless of any forecasts, experts said, residents should prepare as if The Big One were headed their way.


"I wouldn't take what's going on in February to make a guess of what's going to happen in August and September," said Chris Landsea, a research meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Miami. "I'm going to make sure my shutters are ready, just to be safe."


One of the nation's best-known hurricane soothsayers, Colorado State University researcher William Gray, has predicted a sharply higher than average chance of a Category 3 or stronger storm's hitting Florida and the rest of the U.S. East Coast this year.


Still, it should be nothing like 2004, Gray wrote in his first 2005 forecast, in December.


Meteorologists have long tried to predict how many hurricanes a given season will spawn, but they haven't made much headway on a far trickier problem: figuring out where they'll land.


It's the second question that spawns all those long lines at Home Depot. After all, 1992 was a relatively dull year for hurricanes — except for the first one, a Category 5 killer named Andrew.


Since 1995, the North Atlantic has seen a significant spike in hurricane creation, but until last year they largely spared Florida. In fact, Florida was relatively unscathed by major hurricanes from the mid-1960s until last year, after being hit repeatedly in the 1930s and '40s, NOAA's Landsea said.


Even 2004 was nothing special in the total number of hurricanes spawned, Bossak said. What was strange was that so many of the storms were major — and, of course, that so many came whirling our way.


That's where the Bermuda High might come in.


The high is somewhat mysterious, a clockwise-swirling ridge of high pressure that wobbles back and forth across the Atlantic, strengthening and weakening, in response to weather patterns over Iceland and the Azores islands near Portugal. Sometimes it's in the western Atlantic near Bermuda — hence the name.


Forecasters confess they don't have an easy way to gauge the high's behavior.


"We don't know why it's there or how long it's going to be there," Lushine said after the weather service issued a bulletin Feb. 2 blaming the strong Bermuda High for four months of record-dry weather in Palm Beach County. "It's not anything we keep track of."


Lushine added that the high has remained strong and stayed, on average, in the same general area since March. The weather service doesn't have detailed records on its location before then, he said. The high can shift dramatically from day to day, in response to cold fronts and other disturbances.


The high also can stick around the same neighborhood for thousands of years — with vast consequences for the hurricanes spinning toward Florida.


During a 2,800-year stretch ending around 1000 A.D., the Bermuda High seemed to linger near Haiti, said Kam-biu Liu, a geography professor at Louisiana State University who studies prehistoric sediments for clues about past climate conditions. That era was also a "hyperactive" period in which catastrophic hurricanes struck Florida and the Gulf Coast three to five times more often than today, Liu said.


During the past millennium, he said, Florida has enjoyed a quiet period — although that quiet included Andrew in '92 and the 1928 storm that killed more than 3,000 people near Belle Glade.


Here's the scary part: The Bermuda High could easily move back toward Haiti, giving Floridians another thousand or so years of blue tarps.


"We don't know how much longer this quiet period will last," Liu said. "That's the biggest lesson: We haven't seen anything yet."

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/localnews/ ... _0221.html[/b]

[Zadok]

After Jeanne rolled through our town last year we painted our wood structure condo a mile from the beach and put it on the market. It sold the day after we put it on the market for double what we paid for it five years ago. Now we are renting a apartment in a concrete block building much further west in West Palm Beach. No more $1000 dollar nightmare evacuations this year. We got a new iMac G5 computer and will be staying put and on the board this year. I can't wait!


Riders on the Storm

[vbhoutex]

The biggesst problem I see with this article is the slight mention that rhere are other factors involved in steering the tropical Cyclones. If Charley hadn't been caught up in a strong trough incoming from the NW his landfall could have been anywhere along the Gulf Coast especially points west. Florida isn't "out of the woods" or anything like that, but we definitely do not have the same situation we had last year, at least not yet.

[x-y-no]

The basic statistical priciple of regression towards the mean would suggest that more likely than not Florida will have fewer storms this year than last, but then again purely statistical arguments always struck me as unsatisfactory when it comes to easonal predictions.

I think the pattern is setting up for a higher than average number of landfalling storms again this year, but that the focus is going to be further west.

[MWatkins]

The basic statistical priciple of regression towards the mean would suggest that more likely than not Florida will have fewer storms this year than last, but then again purely statistical arguments always struck me as unsatisfactory when it comes to easonal predictions.

I think the pattern is setting up for a higher than average number of landfalling storms again this year, but that the focus is going to be further west.

I'm in 100% agreement...the "due" concept seems to come up all the time, especially for folks who haven't seen a hurricane in some time. It'll be interesting to see how much folks use the flip-side to that argument to proclaim Florida safe this season. My guess is that Florida residents won't, but people who live elsewhere will...for some odd reason.

In fact...I'm going to start a new topic on the due concept...

Anyway...I wonder how many standard deviations 4 strikes in a year is...maybe 2? Have to actually run the numbers and look...I wonder how huge that number is statistically.

MW

[Scorpion]

I highly doubt we will get many systems this year, but even if we just get one large Cat 4(The Frances that never was) it would turn out to be a 100 billion dollar cane. This is what many people seem to forget around here.

[DaylilyDawn]

I never think that Florida will ever have a quiet year with no hurricanes . I have seen too many hurricanes hit this state over the years and when a storm threatens I take it seriously. I have a battery operated color TV , I stock up on my medication,and all the necessary items . and then wait . If it doesn't hit fine , It is does, at least I am somewhat prepared.

[caneman]

This to me as the most relevant part of the whole article. When you read what has happened in the past and know there was not much statistical record keeping, how can we really know how bad it could get. This of course is assuming this type of an era again.

During a 2,800-year stretch ending around 1000 A.D., the Bermuda High seemed to linger near Haiti, said Kam-biu Liu, a geography professor at Louisiana State University who studies prehistoric sediments for clues about past climate conditions. That era was also a "hyperactive" period in which catastrophic hurricanes struck Florida and the Gulf Coast three to five times more often than today, Liu said.

[canegrl04]

Heres wishing Florida a safer season than last.Hopefully the canes that come your way will be at a minimal.I think the more western side of the Gulf will see some action

[HurricaneBill]

I'm in 100% agreement...the "due" concept seems to come up all the time, especially for folks who haven't seen a hurricane in some time. It'll be interesting to see how much folks use the flip-side to that argument to proclaim Florida safe this season. My guess is that Florida residents won't, but people who live elsewhere will...for some odd reason.

MW

Good point. Florida got hit by Cleo, Dora, and Isbell in 1964. In 1965, they got Betsy. In 1966, Inez.

[Dean4Storms]

It is going to be an interesting season to say the least. People will be alot more weary over any storm that forms out there this year and you know the media will play it up, I can hear the questions now....Is Florida in the bullseye again?

We are in an uptick of hurricane activity and with Florida sticking out like a sore thumb separating the GOM and Atlantic oceans it only takes a well placed Bermuda High to steer them toward Florida. The best we can hope for is that UL winds interupt the intensities.

[cajungal]

I don't think Florida will see 4 hits like last year. But, I have a feeling they may see at least one. I have a funny feeling that the storms may track further west and south. And we may see a double whammy hit. Like a storm hitting south Florida anywhere from Miami down to the Keys, then hitting the central gulf coast. Like Andrew and Betsy did.

[Blown Away]

Ok I admit I am a novice compared to most on this board. Correct me if I'm wrong, the media seems to be hitting the panic button with the Bermuda High location. Is this the first time in decades the Bermuda high has been positioned closer to the EC. We've had many dry springs in the past in SFL (This year being a record in Palm Beach) nobody was making a big deal about the Bermuda High at that time.

[Zadok]

After having the center of a hurricane pass over my abode twice in a matter of weeks I take that as a message from the Almighty. Good luck!

Riders on the Storm

[chris_fit]

Hi!

Even though I don't post much in the off season you can bet on it that I check this forum at least every day :-P

Now...
With this "global" warming thing we're in... and since the purpose of Hurricanes is to release energy and/or heat... are there any studies that could relate a rise in global temp to an increase in tropical activity. I believe so. What do you guys think?

[x-y-no]

Hi!

Even though I don't post much in the off season you can bet on it that I check this forum at least every day :-P

Now...
With this "global" warming thing we're in... and since the purpose of Hurricanes is to release energy and/or heat... are there any studies that could relate a rise in global temp to an increase in tropical activity. I believe so. What do you guys think?

Hmmm, well ... let's see if we can avoid getting political this time ...

Assuming for the sake of argument that we have a real emerging global warming signal, that signal is as yet quite small. Furthermore, all modeling suggests that whatever warming we get tends to be most pronounced in the polar regions and least pronounced in the equatorial regions. Thus, if anything, there is less need for heat transport towards the poles in a warmer world than the baseline.

Thus there is no reason on the basis of global heat transport principles to suspect that global warming has had or will have the tendency to increase either the frequency or intensity of tropical systems.

If, some decades in the future, the tropical oceans have warmed significantly, then I think one would expect more frequent tropical cyclone formation simply due to the fact that the neccesary initial conditions would be present for more days out of the year. But whether that would result in more frequent and/or intense storms depends on so many other factors that I don't think we are anywhere near being able to answer that question. One could, for instance, speculate that a more energetic atmosphere would have a greater tendency to shear conditions which would suppress cyclone formation. Or perhaps the opposite would be true.

...

I think that answer managed to avoid any political land mines ... we shall see.

[SouthernWx]

I don't know anything about hurricanes 2000 years ago, but my primary concern is that the hurricane lull which avoided south Florida in great degree between 1951 and 2003 has ended.

I've conducted a lot of research into "landfalling hurricane cycles"; particularly when it involves major hurricanes. Look at maps of major U.S. hurricanes by decade since 1900 or so...there are clearly "cycles" when the majority of landfalling powerful hurricanes struck different coastal areas.

During the 1919-1950 period, at least 14 major hurricanes impacted the Florida peninsula....compared to only 9 for other U.S. areas (NOT including those which struck Florida first THEN made second landfalls elsewhere). During the 1919-1950 period, south and central Florida were bombarded again and again....intense hurricanes causing so much death and destruction that south Florida was dubbed "Hurricane Alley".

Compare that 31 year period to the 1951-1960, 1961-1983, and 1984-2003 periods....you'll see clear hurricane cycles targeting the U.S. East Coast (1950's)...then the Gulf Coast (1960's, 1970's, and early 80's; then back to the Carolinas from 1984 to 2003.

Between 1951 and 2000....only 3 major hurricanes made landfall on the Florida peninsula; compared to 24 which struck either the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts (and again, I didn't include cat-3,4,5's such as Betsy, Donna, or Andrew which first struck FL then the Gulf or East Coast).

Compare:

1919-1950
Florida peninsula: 14
Other: 9

1951-2000
Florida peninsula: 3
Other: 24


I can't tell residents of the Floridia peninsula that 4 or even 1 major hurricane will slam them this season, but I feel reasonably confident that a new landfalling major hurricane cycle has begun-- and in coming years for the next 2-3 decades that intense hurricanes will be far more frequent across the Sunshine state than during the 1951-2003 period, and that there will IMO be more impacts on the peninsula than all other U.S. coastal areas COMBINED.

The last great hurricane cycle for Florida ended in 1950, when much of the state was rural and sparsely populated.
Unfortunately, during the unprecedated "lull" between the early 1950's and 2000, Florida's population has exploded. As disasterous as 2004 was in Florida....IMO in the near future, it will become much worse. The impact caused by one large 140+ mph landfalling hurricane into Miami-Ft Lauderdale then exiting into the Gulf after ravaging Sarasota-Ft Myers or Ft Myers-Naples (then toward New Orleans or Mobile) will DWARF the destruction and death caused by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne combined; IMO it would cause over 100 billion dollars in damage (NOT including the toll along the northern Gulf Coast

Hurricanes of the past such as the 1926 "Great Miami" hurricane, 1928's Okeechobee disaster, and the massive 1947 cat-4 hurricanes weren't "flukes" of nature....they were instead what happens when the major hurricane cycle return to Florida. It happened in the 1920's, 1930's, and 1940's...it will IMO soon happen again.

PW

[cajungal]

I agree totally. People living along anywhere where a hurricane might strike just need to be aware what can happen. Not just Florida but all residents along the gulf coast and eastern seaboard.

[Zadok]

The impact caused by one large 140+ mph landfalling hurricane into Miami-Ft Lauderdale then exiting into the Gulf after ravaging Sarasota-Ft Myers or Ft Myers-Naples (then toward New Orleans or Mobile) will DWARF the destruction and death caused by Charley, Frances, and Jeanne combined; IMO it would cause over 100 billion dollars in damage (NOT including the toll along the northern Gulf Coast

Maybe I should have rented a bomb shelter!


Riders on the Storm

[Derek Ortt]

I do not like singling out Florida as the target. It tends to give other areas a false sense of security.


Lets take 2004. The Carolinas were hit by 3 seperate hurricanes, in the month of August. 3 in 25 days! Had Gaston had 12 more hours over the water, we would have had a major hurricane as that thing was starting to explode just as it came inland. Alex only needed to be 10 miles farther north to kill thousands who did not evacuate, and had Charley been any larger, a Donna-type storm for the EC at the very least would have occurred.

We must not forget that since 1996, Bertha, Fran, Bonnie, Dennis, Floyd, Irene, Isabel, Alex, and Charley have all severely affected NC as hurricanes, while Arthur, Josephine, Danny, Dennis (second pass), Allison, Gustav, and Gaston have affected NC as tropical or subtropical storms (16 total events from 15 different storms).

Lets compare to the Florida Peninsula from the same time period (includes all 3 coasts, excluding the Keys as landfalls there are not considered to be Peninsula hits): Georges (brush), Floyd, Irene, Gabrielle? (still uncertain as to whether or not it was a hurricane, for this argument, lets include it as a cane), Charley, Frances, and Jeanne as hurricanes, while Josephine, Mitch, Harvey, Gordon, Edouard, and Bonnie have hit as tropical storms. (13 events from 13 storms).

My point of contention is that because of the fact that NC sticks out so far into the Atlantic, and right in a typical recurvature lane, the threat of a CV hurricane there is far more likely. Plus, the storms that form in the Bahamas do tend to also affect the Carolinas more frequently than Florida.

In short, while Florida is at a significant risk of a landfalling hurricane, an equal or greater risk, IMO, lies for the North Carolina Coast, though the threatb of a cat 4 or 5 hurricane there is much less than for Florida