Dennis Advisorys

[kevin]

Dang... due NW.

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00504.html

[Brent]

Hurricane Dennis Forecast/Advisory Number 21


Statement as of 21:00Z on July 09, 2005



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for portions of the
northeastern Gulf Coast from the Steinhatchee river westward to the
mouth of the Pearl River.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning for the lower Florida
Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge has been changed to a Tropical Storm
Warning.

At 5 PM EDT...the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for
the Southeast Florida coast from Golden Beach southward...including
the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect along the Florida West
Coast from east of the Steinhatchee river southward to Flamingo...
and for the lower Florida Keys west of Seven Mile Bridge. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the southeastern
Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Pearl River to Grand
Isle...including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Ponchartrain.

A hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning means that hurricane or
tropical storm conditions...respectively...are expected within the
warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in the Hurricane
Warning area.

Hurricane center located near 25.7n 84.6w at 09/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 12 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 958 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 35ne 25se 15sw 20nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 30sw 55nw.
34 kt.......150ne 150se 75sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 25.7n 84.6w at 09/2100z
at 09/1800z center was located near 25.3n 84.2w

forecast valid 10/0600z 27.5n 85.8w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 20sw 25nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 35sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z 29.9n 87.2w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 35se 25sw 30nw.
50 kt...105ne 85se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 80sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 32.3n 88.4w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 70ne 80se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt...130ne 150se 80sw 110nw.

Forecast valid 11/1800z 34.2n 89.3w...dissipating inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 12/1800z 37.0n 89.0w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 13/1800z 38.0n 87.0w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Outlook valid 14/1800z 39.0n 82.0w...remnant low inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.7n 84.6w

next advisory at 10/0300z

forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

430
WTNT24 KNHC 092034
TCMAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042005
2100Z SAT JUL 09 2005

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 30SW 55NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 84.6W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 35SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT...105NE 85SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 84.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART

[gkrangers]

This is a very weak 958mb hurricane.

[Brent]

Still right at Pensacola... should be making landfall this time tomorrow.

125 mph hurricane predicted.

[Ivanhater]

things were looking up for pcola this morning, boy has that changed

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DENNIS ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

...DENNIS GAINING STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
COAST...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST FROM THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER WESTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA
KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE EASTWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST OF THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO...
AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA COAST WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES... 510 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT
415 MILES... 670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
DENNIS IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND DENNIS WILL BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER RESEARCH AIRCRAFT WAS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
ISOLATED TOTALS NEAR 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE DENNIS MAKES
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A STORM
SURGE OF 10 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER OF DENNIS CROSSES THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST ON SUNDAY.

ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY...AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 84.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EDT AND 9 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[gkrangers]

things were looking up for pcola this morning, boy has that changed

[Ivanhater]

intensity wise

[soonertwister]

Current bearing is very slightly to the west of Mobile. Obviously, NHC doesn't think this cane is going to move very much left or right. from the current heading. I can't recall seeing such a narrow cone this far from landfall.

That indicates very high confidence in their track. Any fence-sitters out there, it may be time to pack up, board up, shut down, and get the heck outta there. With such a narrow cone, anyone anywhere near the coast would be a bit foolhardy to hang around, unless absolutely sure of their safety.

By sometime overnight, conditions are going to start going downhill. But tomorrow morning, conditions will be rapidly deteriorating, making travel difficult.

[Brent]

Current bearing is very slightly to the west of Mobile. Obviously, NHC doesn't think this cane is going to move very much left or right. from the current heading. I can't recall seeing such a narrow cone this far from landfall.

That indicates very high confidence in their track. Any fence-sitters out there, it may be time to pack up, board up, shut down, and get the heck outta there. With such a narrow cone, anyone anywhere near the coast would be a bit foolhardy to hang around, unless absolutely sure of their safety.

By sometime overnight, conditions are going to start going downhill. But tomorrow morning, conditions will be rapidly deteriorating, making travel difficult.

I'm getting VERY concerned about MS and even SE LA... so many people there are not prepared.

I just really hope it follows the NHC track(no offense to those in the path), but at least your prepared.

[rtd2]

Current bearing is very slightly to the west of Mobile. Obviously, NHC doesn't think this cane is going to move very much left or right. from the current heading. I can't recall seeing such a narrow cone this far from landfall.

That indicates very high confidence in their track. Any fence-sitters out there, it may be time to pack up, board up, shut down, and get the heck outta there. With such a narrow cone, anyone anywhere near the coast would be a bit foolhardy to hang around, unless absolutely sure of their safety.

By sometime overnight, conditions are going to start going downhill. But tomorrow morning, conditions will be rapidly deteriorating, making travel difficult.

I'm getting VERY concerned about MS and even SE LA... so many people there are not prepared.

I just really hope it follows the NHC track(no offense to those in the path), but at least your prepared.

Brent your RIGHT and from Pascagoula MISS to P'cola is Only about 60-70 miles! So NHC is well within There Forecast area Thats why I see No Drastic shifts...

[HURAKAN]

By the way, the official pressure is 955 or 958 mb?

[gkrangers]

705
WTNT44 KNHC 092058
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED
A RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE PRESSURE IS NOW 955 MB...DOWN
ALMOST 10 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING
TO CATCH UP WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS AS INDICATED BY A 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 91 KT SURFACE WIND
...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12. DENNIS HAS MADE A LARGE
WOBBLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT THIS IS
PROBABLY A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVING
EXPLODED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYE. ONCE THE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL...I EXPECT DENNIS TO
RESUME A NORTHWEST MOTION OF 320 TO 325 DEGREES. THE NEW 18Z NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON
A TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA
AREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT
...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105-110 KT...BUT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL FLAT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE SMALL 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE...RECENT SHARP PRESSURE FALLS...
WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALL
SUGGEST THAT DENNIS SHOULD GO ON AND INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.

VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA

FORECASTER STEWART


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 25.7N 84.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 27.5N 85.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 29.9N 87.2W 110 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 32.3N 88.4W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 11/1800Z 34.2N 89.3W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 12/1800Z 37.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
96HR VT 13/1800Z 38.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
120HR VT 14/1800Z 39.0N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND

[Brent]

By the way, the official pressure is 955 or 958 mb?

955... it was measured after the Forecast Advisory was issued.

[hurricanefloyd5]

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105-110 KT...BUT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
STILL FLAT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...
THE SMALL 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE...RECENT SHARP PRESSURE FALLS...
WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALL
SUGGEST THAT DENNIS SHOULD GO ON AND INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.


ps. this according to the nhc!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It is boming out!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HURAKAN]

Scary thought that a Cat. 4 hurricane could make landfall near Pensacola, but that's possible.

[Brent]

HURRICANE DENNIS TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
6 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005

AT 6 PM EDT...2200Z...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST AND TAMPA
INDICATE THE EYE OF HURRICANE DENNIS WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 305 MILES SOUTH
OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BILOXI
MISSISSIPPI.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 947 MB.
DENNIS HAS REGAINED DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...CATEGORY 3
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS
EVENING.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[canegrl04]

If it weren't so serious I would laugh at an earlier projectin by some yahoo on Fox that he would make landfall at 110mph