I Want Answers

[Guest]

Many of the useful or reliable models that I hear referenced to many times here & elsewhere are suggesting a South Fla strike from Hurricane Frances yet the NHC has been trending Northward in their forecast track.The GFS,CMC,UKMET & EURO have been consistent on a South Fla strike...Even the some of tropical models have shifted west.So whats going on.From what I've heard & vaguely remember the EURO did great last year with Isabel & now its being very consistent with Frances.Is the NHC playing it safe by not suggesting a landfall of a CAT 4/5 hurricane @ this stage.

Opinions???

[ChaserUK]

well with their 5 day track chart they are going to have to show landfall somewhere soon whatever they think.

[caneman]

Many of the useful or reliable models that I hear referenced to many times here & elsewhere are suggesting a South Fla strike from Hurricane Frances yet the NHC has been trending Northward in their forecast track.The GFS,CMC,UKMET & EURO have been consistent on a South Fla strike...Even the some of tropical models have shifted west.So whats going on.From what I've heard & vaguely remember the EURO did great last year with Isabel & now its being very consistent with Frances.Is the NHC playing it safe by not suggesting a landfall of a CAT 4/5 hurricane @ this stage.

Opinions???

Looking at the latest loop, Frances appears due West. Everything I've ever heard is anything coming in below 20 and 60 becomes a significant threat to FLorida. Why NHC is doing this, I don't know but every model I've ever trusted has Florida in the bullseye. I suppose some Charley nervousness is factored in. Listening to TWC update, they too indicated a clear threat to FLorida. MAybe NHC will be more expressive of this concern by the 11:00 update.

[jlauderdal]

Many of the useful or reliable models that I hear referenced to many times here & elsewhere are suggesting a South Fla strike from Hurricane Frances yet the NHC has been trending Northward in their forecast track.The GFS,CMC,UKMET & EURO have been consistent on a South Fla strike...Even the some of tropical models have shifted west.So whats going on.From what I've heard & vaguely remember the EURO did great last year with Isabel & now its being very consistent with Frances.Is the NHC playing it safe by not suggesting a landfall of a CAT 4/5 hurricane @ this stage.

Opinions???

there is more too hurricane track forecasting than just models.

[Deenac813]

The answers will not come for a day or two at least. If they panic everyone now & Frances does not come, next time no one will listen.

[Guest]

This is just amazing.

UKMET

CMC

GFS

ECMWF

[ChaserUK]

mmmm yes lots of agreement right there!

[Deenac813]

Ok that is REALLY scaring me!

[Guest]

I've never seen this much agreement & consistency this far out & yet so much difference of opinion & speculation from different sources.

[wx247]

Ok, the UKMET bothers me big time. It has the storm making landfall south of Miami and then crossing the state landing back out into the Gulf just south of Tampa.

[Hyperstorm]

The outliers are the GFDL and the NOGAPS. HOWEVER, both take the system north off the FL east coast due to a weakness, but QUICKLY build another ridge to its north, which will halt the northward progress and push it westward right OVER central Florida.

With all of this we can say that it is quite a good bet that this system will have some major impact in the state of Florida. The specific impact...I don't know, but unfortunately there's no going back.

The only thing left for us to do is to pray and hope for it to be much weaker than it is now...The ONLY thing.

[Guest]

She is almost due west.

[Derecho]

Some people really, really, really need to unbunch their panties.

The NHC track is almost identical to the GUNA Track (GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFS) average. The GUNA has been the top model for a few years running, actually BETTER than the NHC forecast track last year. It got Isabel almost perfectly.

Yes, because half of it is the GFDL and NGP, the NHC tracks aren't pointing EXACTLY at Miami like the GFS and UKMET. Deal with it!

And NHC hasn't been wildly moving its track in huge chunks to be pointing at Nova Scotia or something. It's barely been moving around.

And because the GFS movement is fairly slow, actually the NHC forecast track won't have to cross land for a good while.

And even the GFDL track actually turns West about...now...so if Frances has in fact turned west just now, it doesn't mean that you're actually throwing a bunch of models out the window.

[Derecho]

The outliers are the GFDL and the NOGAPS. HOWEVER, both take the system north off the FL east coast due to a weakness, but QUICKLY build another ridge to its north, which will halt the northward progress and push it westward right OVER central Florida.

Ummm....extrapolating beyond the end of a model is pretty dangerous.

[Derecho]

Looking at the latest loop, Frances appears due West. Everything I've ever heard is anything coming in below 20 and 60 becomes a significant threat to FLorida. Why NHC is doing this, I don't know but every model I've ever trusted has Florida in the bullseye. I suppose some Charley nervousness is factored in. Listening to TWC update, they too indicated a clear threat to FLorida. MAybe NHC will be more expressive of this concern by the 11:00 update.

Just exactly how much drugs does a person have to smoke to consider the current NHC forecast track to be implying there's no threat to Florida?

People do realize the UKMET is a 6 day model, the EC a 7 day model, and NHC only forecasts to 5 days?

At 5 days the models are still offshore. It's going to be a while before the 5 day position is inland. NHC isn't holding the 5 day position offshore because of fear, they're doing it because of the ...5 day positions of the models.

[indwind]

Could someone provide me a link to the forecasting models that have
the complete loops. Thank you.

[wx247]

How many times does have to post saying they are superior to everyone else?

[caneman]

Looking at the latest loop, Frances appears due West. Everything I've ever heard is anything coming in below 20 and 60 becomes a significant threat to FLorida. Why NHC is doing this, I don't know but every model I've ever trusted has Florida in the bullseye. I suppose some Charley nervousness is factored in. Listening to TWC update, they too indicated a clear threat to FLorida. MAybe NHC will be more expressive of this concern by the 11:00 update.

Just exactly how much drugs does a person have to smoke to consider the current NHC forecast track to be implying there's no threat to Florida?

People do realize the UKMET is a 6 day model, the EC a 7 day model, and NHC only forecasts to 5 days?


At 5 days the models are still offshore. It's going to be a while before the 5 day position is inland. NHC isn't holding the 5 day position offshore because of fear, they're doing it because of the ...5 day positions of the models.

Yep, you're right still too early. And even though NHC is North and still not on land. Another factor to consider is a bend back West from NHC 5 day forecast. You know Derecho alot of times you have good insight, however, you might want to consider some of those drugs you talk about, it will help you take the edge off.

[Hyperstorm]

The outliers are the GFDL and the NOGAPS. HOWEVER, both take the system north off the FL east coast due to a weakness, but QUICKLY build another ridge to its north, which will halt the northward progress and push it westward right OVER central Florida.

Ummm....extrapolating beyond the end of a model is pretty dangerous.

It's pretty much something you have to do sometimes. You can't rely on EVERY SINGLE detail about the models. There are times when you have to extrapolate into the future. Of course, it should always be a carefully informed estimate.

Basic Meteorological Logic...

[wx247]

lol... oh gracious!