SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

[cycloneye]

At the first grafic it shows that a warm area of sst's is located east of the windward islands to around 40w.That is above the average normal data for this time of the year.But on the other hand cool waters are at the eastern atlantic north of 10n from 30w eastward and thatr is normal for March.Also cool waters are at the western Atlantic north of 20n latitud from Florida to the west coast of Africa.

The second grafic ilustrates how cool the Gulf of Mexico is at this time and that is normal for March.

The third grafic shows how cool the gulfstream waters off the east coast are now.

What I posted was only for the members to see how the SST'S are doing now as almost all the areas are at a normal range.However in a couple of months from now when you look at these same grafics you will see the waters warming up in all the regions.

[Huckster]

Here's an image of the global SST anomalies as of March 1, 2005



This link will allow you to look at SST anomaly maps from earlier this year and from previous years back to 1996.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

And another view of the anomalies in the Atlantic so far



And yet another



After looking at the anomaly maps for early March from all the years, I think it's safe to say that the current anomalies do not match exactly any of the years from 1996 to 2004. Hopefully someone on the board knows more about all this than I do. I would be interested to know what if any effect the anomalies, either positive or negative in temperature, have on storms. Obviously, if a storm moves right over an extemely warm eddy, assuming other conditions are favorable, that can really give a storm some boost. What I mean is, can these anomalies be used to get an idea of what the weather patterns might be like later on or where storms might tend to move? How about the placement of troughs and ridges?

[cycloneye]

The anomalys are very important as the surface data is.For example right now the anomalys east of the windward islands are running around +1.0c combining with the surface temps of around 82*F gives the fuel needed for tropical waves to get going but of course other factors will help a disturbance to develop or not one of them is upper shear.

[MGC]

We seem to have this argument about this time every year. SST too cool, SST above normal. In the Atlantic basin, SST are year round capable of supporting TC formation. UL winds are the limiting factor for an active Atlantic season. Don't worry, but by August the oceans will be cooking......MGC

[HurricaneBill]

We seem to have this argument about this time every year. SST too cool, SST above normal. In the Atlantic basin, SST are year round capable of supporting TC formation. UL winds are the limiting factor for an active Atlantic season. Don't worry, but by August the oceans will be cooking......MGC

Which explains the occasional out of season storm that manages to form.....well, out of season.

[cycloneye]

We seem to have this argument about this time every year. SST too cool, SST above normal. In the Atlantic basin, SST are year round capable of supporting TC formation. UL winds are the limiting factor for an active Atlantic season. Don't worry, but by August the oceans will be cooking......MGC

Which explains the occasional out of season storm that manages to form.....well, out of season.

And for that reason I am posting very early these sst grafics for the members to see how they are now but when I bump this thread in a few weeks we will see for sure changes in the basin.

[vacanechaser]

I like this map.. Good one to watch as one approaches..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[depotoo]

jesse - that's a nice map - where is the link for that?

[AussieMark]

[cycloneye]

The anomalys in the Atlantic are warm east of the lesser antilles until 40w but are cool near the Bahamas and on the Gulfstream waters of the east coast.But for sure that will change as time goes by.

In the pacific that cool pool of water has expanded westward until 130w and then there are the warmer anomalys from the dateline eastward until 150w.It will be an interesting thing to watch which one dominates the equatorial pacific when summer arrives.

[cycloneye]

The anomalys in the Atlantic are warm east of the lesser antilles until 40w but are cool near the Bahamas and on the Gulfstream waters of the east coast.But for sure that will change as time goes by.

In the pacific that cool pool of water has expanded westward until 130w and then there are the warmer anomalys from the dateline eastward until 150w.It will be an interesting thing to watch which one dominates the equatorial pacific when summer arrives.

If you look at the top grafic of anomalys it looks like the blue area west of South America is somewhat less intense than in past days.That WWB or Kelvin wave may be warming a little bit the equatorial eastern pacific waters.But let's see if more WWB forms and if that occurs then a el nino episode will unfold by summer but it is still too early to say one thing or another.

[Scorpion]

I sure hope not. *Pours ice into Pacific Ocean*

[cycloneye]

The anomalys in the Atlantic are warm east of the lesser antilles until 40w but are cool near the Bahamas and on the Gulfstream waters of the east coast.But for sure that will change as time goes by.

In the pacific that cool pool of water has expanded westward until 130w and then there are the warmer anomalys from the dateline eastward until 150w.It will be an interesting thing to watch which one dominates the equatorial pacific when summer arrives.

If you look at the top grafic of anomalys it looks like the blue area west of South America is somewhat less intense than in past days.That WWB or Kelvin wave may be warming a little bit the equatorial eastern pacific waters.But let's see if more WWB forms and if that occurs then a el nino episode will unfold by summer but it is still too early to say one thing or another.

The latest anomalys at the pacific show that some yellows are apearing west of South America at el nino 1-2 area but as we know there are fluctuations so let's see a trend develop here to more warmup or on the contrary it stays on the neutral phase.

[cycloneye]

The anomalys in the Atlantic are warm east of the lesser antilles until 40w but are cool near the Bahamas and on the Gulfstream waters of the east coast.But for sure that will change as time goes by.

In the pacific that cool pool of water has expanded westward until 130w and then there are the warmer anomalys from the dateline eastward until 150w.It will be an interesting thing to watch which one dominates the equatorial pacific when summer arrives.

If you look at the top grafic of anomalys it looks like the blue area west of South America is somewhat less intense than in past days.That WWB or Kelvin wave may be warming a little bit the equatorial eastern pacific waters.But let's see if more WWB forms and if that occurs then a el nino episode will unfold by summer but it is still too early to say one thing or another.

The latest anomalys at the pacific show that some yellows are apearing west of South America at el nino 1-2 area but as we know there are fluctuations so let's see a trend develop here to more warmup or on the contrary it stays on the neutral phase.

Those yellows are more pronnounced now at el nino 1-2 west of South America and on contrast the blue or cool conditions appear to be fading somewhat.Is this result of the WWB or kelvin wave that made it to the eastern pacific? We have to watch this to see if it is a trend towards warming waters or those are fluctuations.

[Scorpion]

Time to write off hurricane season. I was looking forward to it too .

[StormChasr]

Sure looks like a pre- El Nino.

[AussieMark]

Time to write off hurricane season. I was looking forward to it too .

is it trend of fluctuation tho.

[cycloneye]

Time to write off hurricane season. I was looking forward to it too .

I would not say that at all.The important thing to watch is if by late April or early May the warm waters expand then yes el nino freshhold has been met.However fluctuations occur up and down so let's wait but I give some credit to the Aussies who did say 3 weeks ago that el nino would be around by the northern hemisphere summer.Let's see if they are right or the CPC predictions of neutral conditions are right.

[Rainband]

looks like the same pattern as last year?? I would love to write off 2005's cane season. We need a break

[StormChasr]

I just think that all the warm water in the PAC, plus the very active season in the PAC makes for the strong possibility of an El Nino, and not a "neutral" season. Just a hunch. Also, in this area ATL is cold--to the tune of 58 degrees.