Invest 93L=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 031506
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MARIA...CENTERED ABOUT 835 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA EASTWARD
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DIMINISHED.
DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE IS CENTERED ABOUT
685 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA. RE-DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


Ok I am making this new thread about this area for Comments,Sat Pics and Models runs being posted here.If this has an invest the title of thread will change.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Have any of the models picked up on anything developing there yet?

[Scorpion]

No more 92L . Can't believe that I actually believed the GFDL.

[cycloneye]

Have any of the models picked up on anything developing there yet?

Aftter noontime the 12z run of the global models will be starting to come out so let's see by then what they have.

[tropicsgal05]

Is this the area that Steve Lyon's on TWC is talking about? He said it would have to be watched going into next week.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS isn't doing much with it ...

It has a weak area of disturbed weather hanging around SFL from 24 through 114 hours plus (that's as far as the run has gone) ... drifting slowly west as a ridge builds over it.


No development yet.

[MiamiensisWx]

Convection has increased and popped up, based on the latest still infra-red imagery below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

It is showing possibly some slight outflow on the west-southwestern side of the system, based on the most recent still visible imagery below.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg

Shear still remains in the area, however, preventing it from becoming more organized. Still, conditions appear to be slightly more favorable in the area than in previous days. Here is the latest shear chart:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Instead of 30KT shear, there is now more 20KT shear replacing the 30KT shear. Gradually - but slowly - the shear may be lessening. I am definately going to watch this system.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 26.4N 78.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 05.09.2005 26.4N 78.5W WEAK

00UTC 06.09.2005 26.3N 79.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2005 26.2N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2005 28.4N 76.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2005 29.6N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 08.09.2005 30.8N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2005 34.5N 73.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2005 35.4N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2005 36.7N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

This is the 12z UKMET which has a weak system moving out to sea.

[dixiebreeze]

It doesn't look like Maria is exactly headed out to sea, either.

[WeatherEmperor]

It doesn't look like Maria is exactly headed out to sea, either.

actually yes it does.

<RICKY>

[scostorms]

So it wont be hitting land? The low near the Bahamian Islands?

[cinlfla]

It doesn't look like Maria is exactly headed out to sea, either.

actually yes it does.

<RICKY>

Well then you better tell Maria to get her butt!!! back on those forcast points. Sorry I know this is a thread for the area near the Bahamas

[Nimbus]

The cold front that spawned these "areas" of interest in the Bahamas is still between Maria and the US, near Bermuda.

There is some shear over maria from the ULL that was to her south but I doubt she will get west of Bermuda as long as that cold front persists.

Shear seems to be inhibiting persistant convection in the Bahamas however 23N 69W has been flaring since this morning.

It looks as though the upper level pressure is begining to rise as the front dies out but I haven't seen a pressure graph.

[cycloneye]

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO A 1010 MB SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N66W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO 29N73W AND 29N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THIS SAME LOW
CENTER TO 27N70W AND 26N79W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 27N TO 28.5N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W.
THE CLOUDS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LESS CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 80W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE SEEN FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

2 PM Discussion.To summarize what the discussion said there it is a mess right now that area in the western atlantic.

[ConvergenceZone]

The cold front that spawned these "areas" of interest in the Bahamas is still between Maria and the US, near Bermuda.

There is some shear over maria from the ULL that was to her south but I doubt she will get west of Bermuda as long as that cold front persists.

Shear seems to be inhibiting persistant convection in the Bahamas however 23N 69W has been flaring since this morning.

It looks as though the upper level pressure is begining to rise as the front dies out but I haven't seen a pressure graph.

I agree, some storms screaming "fish" are questionable, but this one is about as obvious as it gets when it comes to being a fish. There is nothing that will keep this thing from turning, and unlike alot of fish storms, this will be turning WAY WAY before it gets even remotely close to the USA, and I agree that it will miss Bermuda too.

I think we are in a nice break!! Let's hope that every single storm that forms the rest of the year screams "fish", it could happen!.

Of course anything other then that would make me sick to my stomach.

[Scorpion]

That's what I like to call denial.

[WeatherEmperor]

That's what I like to call denial.

what do you mean? are you referring to Maria?

<RICKY>

[Amanzi]

That's what I like to call denial.

I call it optomisim!

[cycloneye]

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER... EXTENDING FROM
FLORIDA EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN
ATLANTIC... IS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BUT COULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


5:30 PM TWO.

[CFL]

Any clue where this would head if it does develop?