NOAA Update=Neutral to Weak La Nina next 6-9 months

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/



Interesting that for the first time CPC says the words la nina in their outlooks.Let's watch how the equatorial pacific evolves in the next few months to see depending on how ENSO goes as summer of 2006 nears how the 2006 season will b in terms of activity.

[SouthFloridawx]

What does it all mean for us here in the atlantic basin?

[cycloneye]

What does it all mean for us here in the atlantic basin?

Guess what my friend.If neutral to weak la nina prevails during next summer we will see another active season. maybe not as active as 2005 but it will be active neverless.

[P.K.]

Good thing there wasn't a La Nina this year.

From the BOM

CURRENT STATUS as at 9th November 2005:
Next update expected by 30th November 2005 (three weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A slight strengthening of the Walker Circulation over the Pacific.

ENSO indicators from the tropical Pacific indicate the neutral climate pattern is persisting. However, over the past two weeks there have been increased indications of a slightly stronger than usual Walker Circulation (the atmospheric circulation above the equatorial Pacific, which weakens/strengthens substantially during El Niño/La Niña events). Despite this slight strengthening, history, and the current outlooks from climate models, suggest it would be unlikely for any significant change from neutral conditions during the remainder of 2005 and into early 2006.

Observations from the Pacific region show Trade Winds near the equator have strengthened in the central equatorial Pacific over the past two weeks, while upper level winds have shown some periods of increase. This slight strengthening of the Walker Circulation is reflected in the value of the SOI, which has risen to around +12. Cloudiness along the equator has generally remained near normal. Sea Surface Temperatures experienced a small cooling late in October and into early November, which was largely a response to the strengthened Trade Winds, however they remained near average for much of the central equatorial Pacific. Subsurface temperatures, in general, remain neutral.

[weatherlover427]

This is quite disappointing. It means a drier than normal winter and an inactive tropical season for us here in the West.

[southerngale]

Lovely.

[cycloneye]

Lovely.

Yeah Kelly.No respit from active seasons it seems for years or decades to come.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Lovely.

Yeah Kelly.No respit from active seasons it seems for years or decades to come.

Yea means come next Sept the board will be crashing and the coffee will be flowing...

[Brent]

Ugh. I'm sick of sucky winters.

[Anonymous]

Oh man...this is what Matt Carrier and I have been speaking about since this past spring. Take the 2005 above average SSTs...but add a LA NINA...wowza.

[Lindaloo]

Okay, I get confused with those two. Please explain them to me. Which one would be bad for Mississippi.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Okay, I get confused with those two. Please explain them to me. Which one would be bad for Mississippi.

Both would be bad for anyone on the Atlantic Coast or Gulf...

[f5]

Farmers Alamanc is indicating next year will be the East coast turn .NYC CAT 4 .New jersey had a CAT 4 back in the 1800s rare but not impossible direct hit Miami CAT 5 (Katrina size with the power of andrew? we just have to wait and see if thier prediction comes true

[Brent]

Okay, I get confused with those two. Please explain them to me. Which one would be bad for Mississippi.

For hurricane season, La Nina or Neutral is bad. It practically guarantees a busy year.

[brunota2003]

Farmers Alamanc is indicating next year will be the East coast turn .NYC CAT 4 .New jersey had a CAT 4 back in the 1800s rare but not impossible direct hit Miami CAT 5 (Katrina size with the power of andrew? we just have to wait and see if thier prediction comes true

You know what??? I dont like east coast seasons...NOOOO!!! That means we will probably have an active season AGAIN next year, but now its my turn??? *Prays to god...*

[Lindaloo]

Okay, I get confused with those two. Please explain them to me. Which one would be bad for Mississippi.

For hurricane season, La Nina or Neutral is bad. It practically guarantees a busy year.

Oh dangit! Thanks Brent.

[Scorpion]

Great news for us avid hurricane watchers .

[DoctorHurricane2003]

El Nino - lower than normal ATLC TC Activity

Neutral/La Nina - normal to above normal ATLC TC Activity

Note: Neutral conditions vs. La Nina conditions have no significant difference in the amount of TCs for a season in the ATLC. I.E. If there was a La Nina in the Pacific instead of neutral conditions this year, we would most likely still have seen 23 named storms, not 30.

In fact, I saw statistics where neutral conditions have the highest amount of TC activity for the ATLC, whereas La Nina conditions have, on average, one named storm less than neutral conditions....but again, no significant difference.

[CharleySurvivor]

That's a bummer! Lets hope the're wrong for another active season next year.

[Anonymous]

Farmers Alamanc is indicating next year will be the East coast turn .NYC CAT 4 .New jersey had a CAT 4 back in the 1800s rare but not impossible direct hit Miami CAT 5 (Katrina size with the power of andrew? we just have to wait and see if thier prediction comes true

Hmm..do you have any links?