Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:42 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... sc&start=0

Thread #1

This is the second thread about the tropical waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 2:28 pm

The wave east of the islands is looking good this afternoon.

Aquawind · #3 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:17 pm

That is a big area of convection moving into othe islands alrighty..looks nice and quiet elsewhere..

no advance · #4 Postby **no advance** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:23 pm

Two impressive waves for mid June

harmclan · #5 Postby **harmclan** » Mon Jun 19, 2006 6:26 pm

Here's a link to a floater in the nearby area.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

HurricaneHunter914 · #6 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 10:42 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

This thing has been pretty persistent I'll say that, but can it develop? That is the question.

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:43 pm

I think the wave in the central Caribbean is looking much better this afternoon, and convection has persisted for the last few days. I have a feeling it will be this system that develops down the road.

NOTE: I think the system off of FL has a decent chance too, but I feel any impact to the U.S. will be minor from that one. The one in the Caribbean has a better chance of becoming stronger.

CHRISTY · #8 Postby **CHRISTY** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 12:52 pm

yea the wave seems to be flareing up again this afternoon....here's an IR image.

Cyclenall · #9 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:35 pm

Does anyone notice how there isn't much dry air around where this wave is? Moist air is back. So what is keeping this system from becoming anything? Shear maybe or something else.

#10 Postby **curtadams** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:48 pm

Long-range forecast of a mildly odd event here, but we've got two systems picking it up. The CMC and the GFS see a tropical storm forming in 5 - 6 days just N of the Antilles. Seems to be homebrew - just kind of pops up.

HurricaneHunter914 · #11 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 1:59 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Does anyone notice how there isn't much dry air around where this wave is? Moist air is back. So what is keeping this system from becoming anything? Shear maybe or something else.

Shear right now is pretty high but right now some of its decreasing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Shear has to really go down for any significant development.

Cyclenall · #12 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 2:08 pm

curtadams wrote:Long-range forecast of a mildly odd event here, but we've got two systems picking it up. The CMC and the GFS see a tropical storm forming in 5 - 6 days just N of the Antilles. Seems to be homebrew - just kind of pops up.

That's cool. They just come out of nowhere and travel northish and eastish.

Shear right now is pretty high but right now some of its decreasing.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
Shear has to really go down for any significant development.

This Atlantic is a flip-flopper. The GOM has no shear now and then the Caribbean has high shear. It was the other way around last week or so!! The Gulf has no shear, moist air (a lot more then when Alberto was around), and warm waters. If something goes in the Gulf then what's stopping it from forming? Things change but not very fast.

cheezyWXguy · #13 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 2:20 pm

i get the feeling that this storm is going to move toward the yucatan, showing no signs of development, but as it crosses the NE tip of the yucatan in the gulf, where shear is lower, it begins to organize

HouTXmetro · #14 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 3:54 pm

Do the Mets expect development from the Carribean wave? It looks like a complete mess.

White Cap · #15 Postby **White Cap** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 4:12 pm

I heard some mention of things picking up around the 25th of June, but I am not sure where I heard it...all I know is that the Gulf is generally favorable for development.

cheezyWXguy · #16 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 4:19 pm

5 days is actually a pretty good bet...whoever you heard it from probably did their homework

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:11 pm

JB had mentioned the period from June 20th through early July as a good time for development in the Gulf. Once this system reaches that area, it might explode.

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:13 pm

two waves should be near the Gulf in about 48 hours, and another should be approaching the Caribbean from the east:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

cheezyWXguy · #19 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Tue Jun 20, 2006 5:45 pm

maybe its just me but, it looks like our tropical wave in the atlantic is spinning backwards...banding features are there and theyre going the wrong way...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jun 21, 2006 7:33 am

Tropical Atlantic Image

:uarrow:

When this thread is quiet it means that nothing significant in terms of Tropical Waves between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is going on.African dust is very much dominating the Tropical Atlantic supressing convection.The only convection is found at the ITCZ axis.

:darrow:

Sal Image

Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

Atlantic Tropical Waves,Comments,Sat Pics Thread #2

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