TS Beryl Recon Discussion Thread

WindRunner · #1 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:51 pm

Discussion in the main recon thread is getting a little too cluttersome for those wanting to see the data. Discuss the plane's findings here so that the data can be easily read by others on the forum.

EDIT: I'll change it back until it's official, for consistency's sake.

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 1:54 pm

Yes,good that you made this thread,to have the main recon thread clear from discussions.

WindRunner · #3 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:12 pm

Just found a 1008mb pressure found with an 18mph wind . . . so maybe a 1006mb advisory at 5pm? And that's just assuming it doesn't deepen any more . . .

#4 Postby **BreinLa** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:15 pm

So is it Beryl or TD 2 I see different threads?

#5 Postby **drezee** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:15 pm

507
WHXX01 KWBC 181911
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM TWO (AL022006) ON 20060718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060718 1800 060719 0600 060719 1800 060720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 73.9W 34.6N 74.4W 35.7N 74.6W
BAMM 32.9N 73.3W 33.6N 74.0W 34.6N 74.5W 35.4N 74.7W
A98E 32.9N 73.3W 34.1N 73.2W 35.5N 72.6W 36.6N 71.4W
LBAR 32.9N 73.3W 33.9N 73.4W 35.4N 73.4W 37.0N 72.8W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060720 1800 060721 1800 060722 1800 060723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 36.4N 74.7W 38.3N 72.3W 40.9N 61.3W 39.6N 47.9W
BAMM 36.4N 74.8W 38.9N 71.0W 42.0N 58.9W 41.8N 43.2W
A98E 37.8N 69.5W 40.7N 63.1W 43.2N 50.6W 39.1N 35.9W
LBAR 38.9N 71.7W 43.3N 65.1W 47.4N 52.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 44KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.9N LONCUR = 73.3W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.7N LONM12 = 73.4W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 31.1N LONM24 = 74.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:16 pm

Bre,Until it's official for all purposes it's still TD 2.

#7 Postby **BreinLa** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:18 pm

Thank You Ceye, I think we should wait to post these threads by that name when it is official please

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:19 pm

BreinLa wrote:Thank You Ceye, I think we should wait to post these threads by that name when it is official please

Agree 100%.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #9 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 3:32 pm

I've put the finishing touches on my recon decoder that I used last year here on the board. You must have MS Excel to use it!

You can find the decoder at the bottom of http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

...or...

ReconExcel v2.0.4 [696 KB]

Geofunc application for ReconExcel [56.5 KB]
(After opening ReconExcel, open Geofunc in Excel for distance geographical functions)

Feel free to PM me with any suggestions or comments.

-Mike

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #10 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:29 pm

Color codes reflect estimated surface winds, based on SSHS category.

Light Blue - TD
Green - TS
Yellow - Category One

#11 Postby **curtadams** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:31 pm

Where is the recon data coming from? I looked on the NHC and hurricane hunter sites and couldn't find any.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #12 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:35 pm

You can grab it from NHC, but the HDOBs you should get from http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:45 pm

A new Vortex Data Message will be up shortly.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:56 pm

583
URNT12 KNHC 182252
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/22:31:20Z
B. 33 deg 41 min N
073 deg 16 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 37 deg 013 nm
F. 101 deg 047 kt
G. 037 deg 010 nm
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb
I. 18 C/ 291 m
J. 23 C/ 320 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0102A CYCLONE OB 21
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 22:27:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

Here it is.47kts at NE Quad.

WindRunner · #15 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:56 pm

D. 45 kt
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb

Good case for strengthening here . . . could see 45kts at 8pm . . . but more likely 40kts.

#16 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:58 pm

WindRunner,this mission now is over or they will make another pass?

#17 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:58 pm

WindRunner wrote:
D. 45 kt
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb

Good case for strengthening here . . . could see 45kts at 8pm . . . but more likely 40kts.

yep i agree.

Thunder44 · #18 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 6:00 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
WindRunner wrote:
D. 45 kt
H. EXTRAP 1006 mb

Good case for strengthening here . . . could see 45kts at 8pm . . . but more likely 40kts.

yep i agree.

TPC hardly uses that estimate (windspeed based on waves) for their advisories.

WindRunner · #19 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 6:01 pm

They should be going home now, but we'll know for sure in a couple of minutes here.

EDIT: NO, they've got time for another pass. They are on-site until about 8:30pm EDT.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #20 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 6:03 pm

The big news is the temp difference is now 5 degrees c. Earlier there was really none...Thats a 9 degree F difference. Thats a strengthing system.

TS Beryl Recon Discussion Thread

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