Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:07 pm

Continue the discussions here.

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060824 1800 060825 0600 060825 1800 060826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 62.4W 12.6N 64.6W 13.1N 66.6W 13.9N 68.4W
BAMM 12.3N 62.4W 12.9N 65.0W 13.6N 67.2W 14.4N 69.1W
A98E 12.3N 62.4W 12.9N 66.1W 13.3N 69.2W 13.7N 72.0W
LBAR 12.3N 62.4W 12.8N 65.4W 13.3N 68.5W 13.9N 71.8W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060826 1800 060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.9N 70.2W 17.2N 74.3W 18.9N 78.4W 19.1N 82.5W
BAMM 15.5N 71.0W 17.6N 75.2W 19.2N 79.4W 19.9N 83.1W
A98E 14.2N 74.3W 16.2N 78.5W 18.3N 82.5W 20.6N 86.5W
LBAR 15.0N 74.9W 18.1N 80.2W 22.1N 84.5W 24.2N 79.6W
SHIP 57KTS 71KTS 79KTS 87KTS
DSHP 57KTS 71KTS 72KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 62.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 58.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 54.6W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Thread #1

Thread #2

Thread #3
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:45 pm, edited 15 times in total.
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#2 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:07 pm

24/1745 UTC 12.7N 61.9W T1.5/1.5 97L
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#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:08 pm

models bring it just south of the western Cuba and LBAR brings it into the FL straits (I would throw out the LBAR/)/
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#4 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:09 pm

Looks to be headed for the GOM folks although we are still far out.
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#5 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:09 pm

So no upgrade yet.
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#6 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:10 pm

1800Z Update from NRL: 97LINVEST.30kts-1008mb
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#7 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:10 pm

the code tag organizes the output much better:

Code: Select all

093
WHXX01 KWBC 241902
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  DISTURBANCE     INVEST (AL972006) ON 20060824  1800 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060824  1800   060825  0600   060825  1800   060826  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    12.3N  62.4W   12.6N  64.6W   13.1N  66.6W   13.9N  68.4W
  BAMM    12.3N  62.4W   12.9N  65.0W   13.6N  67.2W   14.4N  69.1W
  A98E    12.3N  62.4W   12.9N  66.1W   13.3N  69.2W   13.7N  72.0W
  LBAR    12.3N  62.4W   12.8N  65.4W   13.3N  68.5W   13.9N  71.8W
  SHIP        30KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          32KTS          39KTS          48KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060826  1800   060827  1800   060828  1800   060829  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    14.9N  70.2W   17.2N  74.3W   18.9N  78.4W   19.1N  82.5W
  BAMM    15.5N  71.0W   17.6N  75.2W   19.2N  79.4W   19.9N  83.1W
  A98E    14.2N  74.3W   16.2N  78.5W   18.3N  82.5W   20.6N  86.5W
  LBAR    15.0N  74.9W   18.1N  80.2W   22.1N  84.5W   24.2N  79.6W
  SHIP        57KTS          71KTS          79KTS          87KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          71KTS          72KTS          80KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  62.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  19KT
  LATM12 =  11.7N LONM12 =  58.5W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 =  18KT
  LATM24 =  11.0N LONM24 =  54.6W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  155NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
 $$
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#8 Postby NONAME » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:10 pm

Nope not yet wait till we get a Vortex Data Message from recon.
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#9 Postby Buck » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:11 pm

Image
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#10 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:12 pm

LOL, ya beat me to posting the image....

I'm not liking those northerly curves either.....
Last edited by Canelaw99 on Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#11 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:12 pm

crap! I don't like that northern curve some of the models are showing which would bring it into the southern GOM
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

there must be a weakness at the end of the 5 day track....
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#13 Postby Aquawind » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

Still waiting for that convection to wrap around into the NW quad.. otherwise it's pretty naked looking yet.
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#14 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

so do we have #5 yet..?
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#15 Postby skysummit » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

Oh yea....leave it up to the goofy LBAR!
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#16 Postby drezee » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:14 pm

561
WONT41 KNHC 241912
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS
DEVELOPED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ON EITHER A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 PM
AST. MAXIMUM WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY BE
OBSERVED PRIOR TO ADVISORY TIME.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#17 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

Do we have that topography map of Cuba around here somewhere? I remember last year we had a member that posted the topography maps of Cuba, Hispaniola, etc., and it was stickied (I think), but it was very handy.....

SO.....either #5 or Ernesto...place your bets now....
Last edited by Canelaw99 on Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

Ernesto is awakening folks!!! :eek: :grr:
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#19 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:15 pm

That clarifies things a bit- thank you drezee.
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#20 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:16 pm

Ok.. enough said.. Thank ya :wink:
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