TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[Brent]

Thread 9:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89137

[cpdaman]

i bet they will extend watches up into the VA coast

[nequad]

^you mean warnings. But I agree

[Noles2006]

Good luck to everyone who will be impacted by Ernie these next few days!

[shaggy]

My brain is just sitting here working this thing over and all these scenarios keep popping up.A couple of years ago gaston hit SC as it was intensifying and it almost popped an eye out after it crossed the coastline.I believe a similiar situation can occur with ernesto in that if he is intensifying up to landfall that his pressure may still drop and he may be going inland while getting stronger and not really start to weaken right away.I guess with ernesto anything is possible!

[carve]

is ernie trying to form an eye...just to the east of the heaviest convection??

[storms in NC]

My brain is just sitting here working this thing over and all these scenarios keep popping up.A couple of years ago gaston hit SC as it was intensifying and it almost popped an eye out after it crossed the coastline.I believe a similiar situation can occur with ernesto in that if he is intensifying up to landfall that his pressure may still drop and he may be going inland while getting stronger and not really start to weaken right away.I guess with ernesto anything is possible!

You talking about it going into Wilm right?

[theworld]

Good morning all. Not surpirsed at Ernie's improvement, Gulf Stream.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/gsf/

[shaggy]

Somewhere between Myrtle beach and wilmington looks good NHC is sticking to their track and usually when they do that its pretty much locked down barring a few wobbles or slight jogs....Stay safe storms in nc

[Brent]

994 mb from the NOAA plane, may be a little lower than that.

[Thunder44]

Drosponde just reported a pressure 994mb in the eye with 18kt winds. Could be 993mb.

[dgparent]

I have not looked are the waters in Ernie's path warmer than normal this year ?

[angelwing]

I forget who it was in the other thread (#9) but they mentioned the Bertha/Floyd tracks. I don't remember Bertha much, but i do remember Floyd and the flooding we had here, I am hoping that we don't get it like that again or worse, we've had enough rain this week already!

[Hyperstorm]

While a category 2 or higher is not impossible, it only has a very small chance...NOT because of the lack of time over water, but because it is undergoing some slight easterly to northeasterly shear. This is the same shear that prevented Rita from strengthening very rapidly while it was passing south of the Florida Keys. That being said, if that shear lessens just before it makes landfall, a closed eye with plummeting pressure drops is likely.

I personally think it was a very bad call to drop those hurricane watches yesterday. You don't forecast based on current situations. Regardless of what the guidance indicated, you knew that with the well-defined circulation over Florida traveling over the infamous Gulf Stream waters, that would cause an electrifying punch.

In any case, ALWAYS remember to prepare for at least a category HIGHER than the one is forecasted...

[storms in NC]

They will put them back at 11 I would hope.

[fci]

While a category 2 or higher is not impossible, it only has a very small chance...NOT because of the lack of time over water, but because it is undergoing some slight easterly to northeasterly shear. This is the same shear that prevented Rita from strengthening very rapidly while it was passing south of the Florida Keys. That being said, if that shear lessens just before it makes landfall, a closed eye with plummeting pressure drops is likely.

I personally think it was a very bad call to drop those hurricane watches yesterday. You don't forecast based on current situations. Regardless of what the guidance indicated, you knew that with the well-defined circulation over Florida traveling over the infamous Gulf Stream waters, that would cause an electrifying punch.

In any case, ALWAYS remember to prepare for at least a category HIGHER than the one is forecasted...

Max Mayfield was quite contrite on media last night about how they did not do a good job on Ernesto and his visit to Florida.

It seems like they continue the trend with NC/SC as it looks more like it will be a Hurricane when it hits the coast.

Why be so bullish for S. Fl and the opposite for SC/NC??

[carve]

54 knts in the southern quadrate...what does this mean??

[Epsilon_Fan]

he seems to be getting his act together... just rain here in Charleston

[Brent]

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

[ncbird]

Mother Nature ... oh how it just amazes me. Here we were yesterday this was a TS (and anyone who even mentioned cat 1 coming up to NC were full of bunk) and now 24 hours later chat of cat 2 (even though very very slim) is talked about. And yes I admit I would have been one of those who would have been typing my little fingers away saying NO WAY to even any mention of any kind of chit chat about a cat 2 yesterday.

LOL.. I say anyone who thinks their life is boring should take up watching the weather as a hobby.