Disturbance off NE Florida (Now invest 96L)

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Definite Spin Near Sarasota, heavy lightning at my location,
SW-South wind gusting to 30 mph easily- at my house along/near Tampa Bay
in Northeast Saint Petersburg.

Your earlier conditions are confirmed by official reports from St. Petersburg...

St. Petersburg / Clea
Lat: 27.91 Lon: -82.69 Elev: 10
Last Update on Jul 15, 7:53 pm EDT

Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog and Breezy

76°F
(24°C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: E 25 G 37 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1015.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 76°F (24°C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

That is a pretty breezy storm!

[PTrackerLA]

Wow I haven't really paid attention to this area today but it's certainly starting to look suspicious especially on radar. Not liking the sounds of a possible WSW drift...

[ronjon]

With the model support, convection, and obvious circulation it seems like this qualifies as an INVEST now!

[MiamiensisWx]

I believe this area should be closely monitored through the rest of the week. There is a broad surface trough that extends from the coastal waters off the Southeast to the FL peninsula and eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Since shear will be relatively low over the eastern GOM, I believe this region will be the place to watch for potential tropical cyclogenesis. Latest TAFB surface analysis around 18Z indicates a weak surface low has developed off the west coast of Florida because of 850 mb low level vorticity across the area. Weak divergence from a H5 shortwave trough to the north is providing good ventilation over the eastern GOM, and diffluence is excellent in the vicinity as well. Additionally, a tropical wave axis that is currently entering the central Caribbean Sea will eventually provide low level convergence as it enters the W Caribbean by the end of the week. Mid level dry air along the northern Gulf Coast will be an issue, but the synoptic set-up will be conducive. As a 850 mb low level ridge and a 500 mb upper level ridge is progged to build over the area, it is plausible that the surface low will slowly drift WSW over the next several days.

This one bears watching. This is a classical scenario for July development; see Erika 2003 as one example.

I suspect it will be mentioned in one of the TWOs tomorrow.

...and why is the WSW drift disconcerting?

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps touch and go..closes it off brings it to NW Florida..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=TBW&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Definite Spin Near Sarasota, heavy lightning at my location,
SW-South wind gusting to 30 mph easily- at my house along/near Tampa Bay
in Northeast Saint Petersburg.

Your earlier conditions are confirmed by official reports from St. Petersburg...

St. Petersburg / Clea
Lat: 27.91 Lon: -82.69 Elev: 10
Last Update on Jul 15, 7:53 pm EDT

Thunderstorm Heavy Rain Fog and Breezy

76°F
(24°C)
Humidity: 94 %
Wind Speed: E 25 G 37 MPH
Barometer: 29.98" (1015.2 mb)
Dewpoint: 74°F (23°C)
Heat Index: 76°F (24°C)
Visibility: 0.50 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

That is a pretty breezy storm!

Yes we are on the north side of the circulation wind is out of the east

[Ivanhater]

With the model support, convection, and obvious circulation it seems like this qualifies as an INVEST now!

I would expect it to be tagged at any time ronjon...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The water temperature is 87 Degrees Fahrenheit along the waters
of the west coast- see link on previous page of thread
That could be explosive to a storm system.

One of the links on the previous page- myfoxtampabay shows SST of 93
along the west coast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The system currently looks pretty ominous on the long-range radar loop...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

As I said before, if the low can work itself under that large rain-shield SW of Sarasota, then this could take off rapidly. It will be quite interesting to see how this looks by tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

we just have to see if the convection can persist... over night.. and we get a surface circulation cause right now its not quite a closed low.. well obviously

[ronjon]

My wind in Hernando Beach - about 40 miles north of Clearwater has been out of the E-SE for the last two hours - seems to jive with a surface low off to my SW.

[caneman]

Hey guys. Ronjon how ya been? Quite a stormy/rainy season we've had so far. The mosquitos are also horrendous. Hope this isn't a bad sign for us this year. Like I said earlier, you can alway tell when something tropical is getting going off the coast. It's hard to explain, the calmness, lack of significant lightning and thunder or just the eeriness of it. Hope we don't get the rain like we did last night. It poured so hard, I though the roof was coming down. Good call to thoose who picked up on this early.

[Ivanhater]

This thread is hot tonight!

[tpr1967]

During the past hour, areas just to my southeast where free of rain. Now area seems to be filling in with rain, and what seems to be some twist to the radar sw of Sarasota/Bradenton.


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

[PTrackerLA]

This thread is hot tonight!

Because it's in our backyard . In all seriousness, I think this should be designated as an invest ASAP. People need to know to keep an eye on this one especially if it drifts west.

[MiamiensisWx]

Because it's in our backyard. In all seriousness, I think this should be designated as an invest ASAP. People need to know to keep an eye on this one especially if it drifts west.

Every Gulf TC does not intensify rapidly. If development occurs, it will be gradual.

On another note, I will be relieved if the "thread page counts" that were seen in Active Storms can be eliminated from the discussions.

[Ivanhater]

This thread is hot tonight!

Because it's in our backyard . In all seriousness, I think this should be designated as an invest ASAP. People need to know to keep an eye on this one especially if it drifts west.

Yeah I think they will tag it soon..if not to get some model runs on it...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very low fast moving clouds from the east. Just like a tropical system.

[deltadog03]

EURO. GFS and NAM have been showing this for a couple of days now.

[Bertha08]

What would the general direction be, in terms of "landfall"?