ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

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coreyl
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#101 Postby coreyl » Sun Aug 10, 2008 9:59 am

Will 92L go out to sea?
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#102 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:00 am

Image
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#103 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:00 am

Blown_away wrote:
Wow, forgot how pretty Frances was out at sea, she wasn't pretty when she was pounding my town. So Wxman57, is the setup appear to be similar?


Here's a 500mb streamline forecast for next Sunday that sort of matches the position of Frances on the other link I posted. Setup is very similar. One significant difference is the much deeper trof over the eastern U.S. next weekend than there was when Frances was approaching.
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#104 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:01 am

coreyl wrote:Will 92L go out to sea?


It's likely to impact the Lesser Antilles, and then we will see.
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Re:

#105 Postby Ola » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:02 am

coreyl wrote:Will 92L go out to sea?


Its already out at sea.

Do you mean will it come on shore?


If your talking CONUS, way to early to tell. Caribbean, seems likely.
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#106 Postby GeneratorPower » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:03 am

coreyl wrote:Will 92L go out to sea?


Not very likely given the current setup. It will likely at least affect the islands. It may or may not recurve to the east after that but chances are pretty good it would affect someone while in the process of recurving.
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#107 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:03 am

Image

Not bad at all. Fay, are you there? :D
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Derek Ortt

#108 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:04 am

chances of development seem good with this system

would not be the least bit surprised to see a TS for the Caribbean out of this
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#109 Postby coreyl » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:04 am

I mean away from the carribean and away from the gulf. out to sea like curve out to sea
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#110 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:05 am

Still looks pretty good. Awesome picture Sandy (1st one)!
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#111 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:05 am

coreyl wrote:I mean away from the carribean and away from the gulf. out to sea like curve out to sea


Not very good.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#112 Postby Blown Away » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:08 am

wxman57 wrote:
Blown_away wrote:Wow, forgot how pretty Frances was out at sea, she wasn't pretty when she was pounding my town. So Wxman57, is the setup appear to be similar?

Here's a 500mb streamline forecast for next Sunday that sort of matches the position of Frances on the other link I posted. Setup is very similar. One significant difference is the much deeper trof over the eastern U.S. next weekend than there was when Frances was approaching.


So a deeper trough should give 92L a better chance to miss at least SFL? Isn't the ridge suppose to be building to the W and the trough moving W away from the EC about that time?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#113 Postby curtadams » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:10 am

Quickscat and RGB both show a large, loose COC (possibly multiple centers on RGB). It's like Dolly that way. Heading down towards Dmin so that's not likely to change today during daytime. I don't expect an NHC upgrade until tomorrow (although I'd call it a depression myself).
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#114 Postby bvigal » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:14 am

Mecklenburg wrote:
bvigal wrote:Hurakan, glad you posted that dvorak. I've been running the loop, and I think we'll have a depression in another hour.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

so soon?
Maybe it is a bit soon, from the standpoint of not enough data yet, and persistance. On the other hand, from 8am TWD: "THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 41W S OF 19N IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CYCLONIC TURNING OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0840Z CONFIRMS POSITION OF THE WAVE ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION FORMING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. " is still true, and "...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS DISORGANIZED..." no longer appears true. Originally, the circulation was not under the bulk of convection, but now is. The other factor is proximity to U.S. islands. At any rate, I hope this isn't one of those they have to put a plane in to confirm a closed low, and we wait 2 days until it's almost on our doorstep (meaning the Eastern Caribbean) before they declare it!!!
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#115 Postby Recurve » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:15 am

With the NRL sat and GE, I'm looking at 11N 44*30'W for a low center. Is that anywhere near close now anyone think?
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#116 Postby HUC » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:21 am

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Caribbean.shtml
bUOY 41041 SHOULD BE WATCHALTHOUGH A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER???
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#117 Postby bvigal » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:25 am

Image
10:45am Dvorak
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#118 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:29 am

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm thinking a good chance for a TD later today. Looking at both the visible and IR the convection is not only persistent but steady and the visible shows the circulation becoming more vigorous.
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Re: ATL: Invest 92L - Central Atlantic

#119 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:32 am

tolakram wrote:Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm thinking a good chance for a TD later today. Looking at both the visible and IR the convection is not only persistent but steady and the visible shows the circulation becoming more vigorous.

I dunno...convection is persistent, but somewhat disorganized. In addition the circulation is elongated, despite being nearly closed. But compared yesterday its an incredible improvement, and development appears likely out of this one. I do believe it will take at least a day though for that circulation to become less elongated, Masters says 2 days.
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Scorpion

#120 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 10, 2008 10:35 am

GFS initializes it as a closed low.
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