Low Pressure in Gulf of Mexico

[meteorologyman]

This was the drought in Florida Before the rain moved in
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... MLB&max=10

Now compare to amount of rain that was received
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

click on storm total under rainfall

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Convection is developing where the NHC places the low. Also, it's over the Loop Current.

[Category 5]

not looking friendly at this time

if that dry air lays back and the shear drops that might open the door but it would have to hurry.

[cycloneye]

As HURAKAN said,some more convection near the low.It seems like its taking a WSW component.

[Bailey1777]

Are we at this point looking at a developing system or a dying one?

[Bailey1777]

Also when the NHC speaks of a low tomorrow in the central GOM are they talking about a new low or this one?

[meteorologyman]

Are we at this point looking at a developing system or a dying one?

This may actually be a developing system, from tropical weather discussion there is a narraow ridge of High pressure in the Gulf predicted to weaken. Which would probably allow more moisture. However at this point dry air is getting in circulation

[tailgater]

Check out the low off the SW FLA coast.

Also check out TS force winds off the coast of Ga., just a little bit removed from the center. As 57 said winds over water are a good higher.

[meteorologyman]

This storm isn't going to do a circle is it?

[meteorologyman]

Okay this is what I am gathering by looking at images and I am a amature so experts please correct me if I observed this incorrectly.
There is a big High Pressure in central U.S which is keeping the storm from moving northward. Also because the storm is right up against the high it brought dry air from the US into the Gulf and now the storm is struggling. However moisture in EPAC and Over Mexico is being pulled into the gulf. So now the Narrow Dry air is getting squeezed which may turn into moisture. By then the storm will absorbed/pull the moisture from Pacific bringing more rain to FL. Which is also why GFS may be forecasting a low from Pac to cross Mexico into Gulf next week.

[Nimbus]

Yesterday as this system moved west over the Tampa Bay area there was no sign of any low scud clouds which we usually see circulating around a surface low. This morning there is still a spin in the gulf visible SW of Ft Myers on radar. The coordinates given for the upper level low were further north and the quickscat winds are further west so its hard to tell exactly what is where.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...

THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO THAT WAS SUPPORTING THE
COLD FRONT HAS IT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA HAS INTENSIFIED TO THE
SOUTH...EXTENDING ITSELF INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH NOW IS ALONG THE LINE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...TO THE COAST
OF HONDURAS NEAR 85W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM TEXAS TO THE EAST OF 100W
AND LOUISIANA...THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF HONDURAS TO THE WEST OF 80W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS IN CENTRAL MEXICO. BROAD LARGE-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY COVERS THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 33N BETWEEN 70W AND 91W...COVERING PARTS OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS...
IN SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND NEARBY COASTAL WATERS...JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE TURKS ISLANDS...FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 74W AND
75W...AND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO ARE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. A 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS OVER WATER ABOUT 80 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
EVERGLADES IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS
LOW CENTER...ACROSS CUBA AND GRAND CAYMAN TO 18N82W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[wxman57]

It's just a big upper-level low with a weak surface low beneath it now. Such systems can eventually, over a period of days, transform into tropical lows. However, this low has a lot of cool, dry air flowing out into the Gulf (vs. an upper low without cold advection in the tropical Atlantic). And that cool, dry air will really impede tropical development. Convection may eventually diminish and the low wind down over the next few days. Tropical development chances are very low.

[KWT]

Very good point, the convection will have a hard time with this sort of set-up, though it does have 4-5 days from now to transfer to some degree, I don't think it'd become tropical but subtropical is possible down the line IMO.

[HouTXmetro]

Is this thing going to move or sit off the West Florida Coast? If so, for how long?

[Cyclone1]

It's a very nice looking low! Not a... tropical looking low, but still... nice.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I don't see this having much of a future. Enjoying the rain, though.

[rockyman]

Tropical or not, we're going to have some windy conditions along the north central Gulf Coast:

http://inws.wrh.noaa.gov/alert_map/inde ... 307/a/7766

WWUS74 KMOB 200943
NPWMOB
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
...A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE COASTAL AREAS TODAY...
.A STRONG SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
CREATE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE GRADIENT
WILL BE TIGHTEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASING AS THE DAY HEATS UP...STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL MIX DOWN...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG
THE GULF COAST. WINDS FARTHER INLAND WILL BE LESS...WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED.
ALZ063-064-FLZ002-004-006-201745-
/O.NEW.KMOB.WI.Y.0003.090520T1200Z-090521T0000Z/
LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL OKALOOSA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TILLMANS CORNER...THEODORE...FOLEY...
SPANISH FORT...PENSACOLA...FERRY PASS...BRENT...WEST PENSACOLA...
BELLVIEW...ENSLEY...MYRTLE GROVE...PACE...MILTON...WRIGHT...
NICEVILLE...SEMINOLE...EGLIN AFB...VALPARAISO
443 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2009
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING.
A SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA TODAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER 35 MPH.
ARE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.
&&

[cycloneye]

Below is the latest update about this from Dr Jeff Masters.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 12:51 PM GMT on May 20, 2009

The large extratropical storm that has been drenching Florida over the past few days continues to pour rain on the state as it treks slowly westward over the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts as high as 13.3 inches have been measured in Northern Florida in Flagler County over the past three days, with another 2 - 4 inches expected from the storm. The storm is bringing beach erosion, 7 - 10 foot waves, and tides 2 - 3 feet above normal to the Northeast Florida coast, along with damaging thunderstorm winds. While the storm's center is located just offshore Southwest Florida, a large band of precipitation arcs to the north and east, extending over northern Florida. This type of structure is typical of subtropical storms, though the storm does not have enough heavy thunderstorm activity or warm core air to qualify as a subtropical storm. The storm is under about 30 knots of wind shear, and shows no signs of developing more tropical characteristics. The computer models generally predict the storm should weaken this week as it moves towards Louisiana or Texas. As the center moves farther north over the next few days, it will be moving into a region of lower wind shear, and I still give the storm a 20% chance of becoming a subtropical depression 2 - 7 days from now.

[crazycajuncane]

Wow the offseason is over. I haven't visited the forums in a good couple of months! I was watching the news last night and saw that nice low spinning over by Florida.

Talking high rain chances here Sat - Sun - Mon ... why on a 3 day weekend?

Oh well let the games begin! The season looks to want to get off on an early note. I don't think it'll spawn tropical, but there is a slight chance!