EPAC : Invest 91E

[HURAKAN]

18 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009061118, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1185W, 20, 1007, LO

It looks like its almost over for 91E to become a TC.Its moving almost due northward into the strong shear.That June 19th date looms large now and the record is in jeapardy.

Unless something radical happens, I agree.

[HURAKAN]

11/1800 UTC 13.2N 118.6W T1.0/2.0 91E -- East Pacific

[HURAKAN]

346
WHXX01 KMIA 111817
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1817 UTC THU JUN 11 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912009) 20090611 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090611 1800 090612 0600 090612 1800 090613 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.2N 118.5W 14.7N 119.3W 16.1N 119.4W 17.2N 119.1W
BAMD 13.2N 118.5W 14.9N 119.5W 16.7N 119.5W 18.9N 118.7W
BAMM 13.2N 118.5W 14.8N 119.4W 16.3N 119.5W 17.8N 119.0W
LBAR 13.2N 118.5W 14.8N 119.1W 16.9N 119.6W 19.6N 119.8W
SHIP 20KTS 19KTS 16KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 19KTS 16KTS 0KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090613 1800 090614 1800 090615 1800 090616 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.9N 118.7W 19.3N 118.8W 20.3N 118.8W 21.4N 117.8W
BAMD 21.5N 117.2W 27.9N 110.8W 33.2N 100.7W 36.5N 90.6W
BAMM 19.3N 118.3W 22.8N 116.2W 26.0N 111.8W 29.6N 106.3W
LBAR 22.7N 119.2W 31.6N 112.1W 39.6N 96.3W .0N .0W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 118.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.7N LONM12 = 117.9W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 117.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

Low center becoming semiexposed.

[HURAKAN]

Bye, bye!!!

[KWT]

Yep shear slamming into 91E now and does look like the best chance for 91E to become a TC is now ending. I have to admit the shear seems to have ramped up a little faster then I was expecting.

Anyway as others have said this season looks likely to continue heading up the top 10 slowest starting seasons ever and as Hurakan said, the record could well be in trouble if nothing else brews in the next 5-7 days.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUN 11 2009

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N119W MOVING NW 5 TO 10
KT. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS
POSITION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...
THOUGH A WEAKER CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12N120W. A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH CONNECTS THESE TWO LOCATIONS. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION
OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS RATHER STRUNG OUT
NEAR THIS TROUGH. ALSO...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 12N135W IS RESULTING IN A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TO
DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THIS SYSTEM. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 14N
BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN RESPONSE...IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS ALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THESE FACTORS ARE FORECAST TO PROVIDE A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IN THE
MEANTIME...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.

[cycloneye]

Downgraded to code orange.

903
ABPZ20 KNHC 112338
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH...AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Derek Ortt]

center was exposed all day. It is actually less exposed than it was this morning

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

EP, 91, 2009061200, , BEST, 0, 143N, 1187W, 20, 1007, LO

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PHNC 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151Z JUN 09//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 110200)//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 118.5W TO 18.5N 119.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 120200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1N 118.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS. THE NEXT SATELLITE INVESTIGATION IS SCHEDULED FOR
130000Z.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
117.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 118.7W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS
IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SOUTH OF AN EXTENSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NARROW REGION
OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND REMAINS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS
POORLY CONSOLIDATED AND IS CURRENTLY THE LIMITING FACTOR IN FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
130200Z.

[HURAKAN]

Next!

[cycloneye]

811
ABPZ20 KNHC 121130
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[brunota2003]

It had a decent shot, but couldnt quite pull it together. I do not think if this was in the Atlantic it would of been upgraded...we would of had some recon flights into it however, had it been close enough to land.

[Cyclone1]

Looks as dead as analog television today.

[HURAKAN]

Looks as dead as analog television today.

Now we have more jokes.

[HURAKAN]

The first tropical storm was named on

1988 - June 16

1993 - June 12

1994 - June 19*

1995 - June 15

1998 - June 13

1999 - June 18

* = Record

Lets see where 2009 will fall. This will still be the latest in the EPAC in at least a decade.

2009 passes 1993. 1998, 1995, and 1988 are in grave danger. 1999 & 1988 could also lose their title.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUN 12 2009

A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 15N120W. THE LOW NO LONGER
HAS ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NO LONGER A THREAT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE LOW AND
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY SUN.

[cycloneye]

Its officially gone!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep912009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200906121820
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END