ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[ROCK]

Cuba's model leans towards Belize solution, but moves it rather fast, being a system around 1000hpa just to the north of Honduras in 3 days....


http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... s/presion/

Hey thanks...never knew Cuba had a model until now.

[ozonepete]

it's important to watch what's going on across Panama in the EPAC about 500 miles west of 97L. Some models continue to develop this area instead. If that EPAC system gets going, shear would increase across the Western Caribbean. The 00Z GFS rolling in is not quite as bullish through the first 60 hours and generally moves the area NW into Central America. Should that happen, the EPAC area could be the focus of where development may happen.

Anyway, the UKMET/GFDL/HWRF are developing 97L more quickly and I believe they are seeing a large weakness in the ridge way off to the north passing by the NE CONUS and digging down into the Western Atlantic, eroding the Bermuda High ridge....that would give 97L just enough of a few days tug N or NNE, if it were deep enough (then some H5 ridging could develop again across the Eastern CONUS/GOM, which would block northward progress of 97L down the road).

That's a really great analysis of what the models see, and what might come of this, gatorcane. What we need to see now is how strong each of these disturbances get. After all, the models won't know any better until they ingest the next states of these two systems. From watching the current cloud motions, I think 97L has a little bit of an advantage. The disturbance in the EPAC is moving north or northeast a little too quickly and seems like it will end up over land or too close to it while 97L is still over water.

[Sanibel]

IMO it needs to pull north or it will either dissipate or pull into Nicaragua.

[jconsor]

The closest surface obs are about 175 miles away from the center - Tocumen, Panama and Puerto Limon, Costa Rica (which doesn't report overnight). Since this is a compact system, the fact that these surface obs are reporting 10-15 mph winds doesn't mean much. There likely are stronger winds closer to the center, but we won't know for sure until recon arrives.

In any case the satellite presentation continues to improve.

Convection is still pulsing here and there, but not in one spot. Doesn't look too much different from the past 24 hours. Actual surface obs in the area still don't show much wind. Though they're not too numerous, they don't seem to confirm winds nearly as high as QS estimates, but the two aren't matching up exactly over the same areas. Maybe if we could get one single QS that actually covers the whole system we could compare surface obs place for place with QS. Figures that QS has missed this area for the past 4 passes. It's the only tropical strip missed.

[Ivanhater]

Nice LLC growing stronger and banding features... I am also on the "go" band wagon.

Nice to see you Ivan...been a slow year...

Lol Rock, after these past few years on the gulf coast, this year has been a welcome break! I will always have a suspicious eye on the tropics...well see...

[Evil Jeremy]

I am calling for a code red at the next TWO. Look at the convection pulsing on this!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/wv-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

Looking great

[cycloneye]

Code Red


KNHC 041154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

First visible

[HURAKAN]

Very nice system.

[HURAKAN]

04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L

Maybe an upgrade is in order before RECON

[DESTRUCTION5]

"IDA" gotta think we have a upgrade at 11.

[cycloneye]

The question is if new EPAC invest 96E will affect in some way 97L?

[HURAKAN]

At the moment, 97L has the upper hand.

[Macrocane]

Nice LLC circulation, strong convecion near the center, banding features, what more is needed to call this a TD? I think that the first advisory will be issued in a few hours. It will be an interesting week if it intensifies into Ida and even more interesting if invest 96-E develops too as they both can have influence on the weather here.

[gatorcane]

OK so I jumped the gun a bit yesterday by saying it would be code RED yesterday, anyway it is code RED and development chances are high indeed.

[boca]

97L will only stenghthen if it doesn't move inland.I don't see this moving north due to the strong high building over the eastern US.

[cycloneye]

IMO,they will wait for recon that will go this afternoon to see what they find.

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[KWT]

This is the sort of system that recon will likely find a low end TS by the time they get there, probably wth a small radius of top winds as well.