TORNADO WARNING
MOC007-019-137-050100-
/O.NEW.KLSX.TO.W.0005.100405T0016Z-100405T0100Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
716 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN AUDRAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT
* AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HIGBEE...OR 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOBERLY...
AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
AT 700 PM CDT...A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY TRAINED SPOTTERS NEAR
SALISBURY.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...PARIS...MEXICO...STURGEON...MADISON...HOLLIDAY...
THOMPSON AND VANDIVER.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
A few tornado warnings now out after a slow start to the eveing:
TORNADO WARNING
ILC057-125-179-050115-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0002.100405T0026Z-100405T0115Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
726 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 722 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEWISTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANITO...LITTLE AMERICA...DUNFERMLINE...LIVERPOOL...GOOFY RIDGE AND
UNION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
TORNADO WARNING
ILC057-125-179-050115-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0002.100405T0026Z-100405T0115Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
726 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTH CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WEST CENTRAL TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 815 PM CDT
* AT 722 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LEWISTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANITO...LITTLE AMERICA...DUNFERMLINE...LIVERPOOL...GOOFY RIDGE AND
UNION.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
This was posted on the warning thread but thought it was also relavant on this thread:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...FAR SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050026Z - 050130Z
ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG DRYLINE.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE MOIST
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM SEVERE HAIL THREAT. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS EVENING.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG DRYLINE...DRAPED
FROM ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK TO WILSON COUNTY KS AS OF 00Z...AS WINDS
HAVE BACKED TO THE S/SSE WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR. DESPITE NIL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED FROM DEWEY COUNTY OK
TO COWLEY COUNTY KS. 00Z OUN RAOB APPEARS TO SAMPLE AMBIENT MOIST
SECTOR WELL WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR 7.5 C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS /PER AREA PROFILERS AND OUN RAOB/...UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 04/05/2010
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0247
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...FAR SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 050026Z - 050130Z
ISOLATED TSTM INITIATION APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ALONG DRYLINE.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE MOIST
SECTOR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM SEVERE HAIL THREAT. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW THIS EVENING.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG DRYLINE...DRAPED
FROM ROGER MILLS COUNTY OK TO WILSON COUNTY KS AS OF 00Z...AS WINDS
HAVE BACKED TO THE S/SSE WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR. DESPITE NIL
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRM
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED FROM DEWEY COUNTY OK
TO COWLEY COUNTY KS. 00Z OUN RAOB APPEARS TO SAMPLE AMBIENT MOIST
SECTOR WELL WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR 7.5 C/KM FROM 700-500 MB. WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS /PER AREA PROFILERS AND OUN RAOB/...UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE THE TORNADO THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 04/05/2010
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
-
vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29096
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
Re: Severe Storm threat for Easter Weekend?
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
744 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MANITO...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAVANA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN VALLEY...SAN JOSE...DELAVAN...EMDEN...HARTSBURG...HOPEDALE...
MINIER AND ARMINGTON.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 62.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
&&
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
744 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN MASON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MANITO...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAVANA...AND MOVING EAST AT 50
MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GREEN VALLEY...SAN JOSE...DELAVAN...EMDEN...HARTSBURG...HOPEDALE...
MINIER AND ARMINGTON.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 62.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
&&
A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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Re:
Bunkertor wrote:Storm Chaser Corey Sloan is hitting the road to Salisbury,MO, the spot of the 1st warning.
From the looks of things the storms over MO seem to be the best ones for chasing if you want to get a tornado.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MOC011-015-027-029-039-051-055-057-059-065-071-073-077-085-097-
099-105-109-113-125-131-139-141-145-151-161-167-169-183-185-186-
187-189-217-219-221-225-510-050700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0046.100405T0140Z-100405T0700Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BENTON CALLAWAY
CAMDEN CEDAR COLE
CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS
DENT FRANKLIN GASCONADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARIES MILLER
MONTGOMERY MORGAN NEWTON
OSAGE PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
VERNON WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
840 PM CDT SUN APR 4 2010
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 46 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
MOC011-015-027-029-039-051-055-057-059-065-071-073-077-085-097-
099-105-109-113-125-131-139-141-145-151-161-167-169-183-185-186-
187-189-217-219-221-225-510-050700-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0046.100405T0140Z-100405T0700Z/
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARTON BENTON CALLAWAY
CAMDEN CEDAR COLE
CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS
DENT FRANKLIN GASCONADE
GREENE HICKORY JASPER
JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE
LINCOLN MARIES MILLER
MONTGOMERY MORGAN NEWTON
OSAGE PHELPS POLK
PULASKI ST. CHARLES ST. CLAIR
ST. FRANCOIS ST. LOUIS STE. GENEVIEVE
VERNON WARREN WASHINGTON
WEBSTER
MISSOURI INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ST. LOUIS CITY
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Yeah its going to be a very interesting day, depends on what the cap does over the next few hours really, could well need upgrading.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
SPC AC 051619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF WRN OK/CNTRL KS
INTO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A COMPLEX AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MS...AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
DATA LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN MOST AREAS.
...IL/IA/MO/NEB/KS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTENING. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA. THEIR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER TODAY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RUC/NAMKF/NMM4 ALL SUGGEST A VERY POTENT
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK CAP...AND LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER
TO NORTH OF IRK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
...MO/IL/IND...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND TRENDS IN CU
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST THE RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN
IND/CENTRAL KY. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...KS/OK...
A STRONG DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK. AT THIS TIME...ALL
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT
OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF HEATING TO WEST OF
DRYLINE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATE EAST OF DRYLINE...AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP DURING MAX HEATING ALL SUGGEST THAT THE RISK OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS. IF A STORM CAN FORM...LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SCENARIO.
As has been said could become a siginifcant event, or remian just slight...
Needs to be watched very closely!
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT MON APR 05 2010
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF WRN OK/CNTRL KS
INTO MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A COMPLEX AND RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST SCENARIO WILL
DEVELOP TODAY. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES...WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...MS...AND OH VALLEYS. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL
DATA LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN MOST AREAS.
...IL/IA/MO/NEB/KS...
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTENING. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY AS THEY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IA. THEIR ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK MID
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER TODAY COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
AND DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AFTER 21Z ALONG THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM NAM/GFS/RUC/NAMKF/NMM4 ALL SUGGEST A VERY POTENT
COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...WEAK CAP...AND LARGE LOOPING
HODOGRAPHS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER
TO NORTH OF IRK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TORNADOES. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY
REGARDING THE PROBABILITY OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. SERIOUSLY
CONSIDERED UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN THIS REGION...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT AND MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF IA INTO NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN
THIS AREA OVERNIGHT.
...MO/IL/IND...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MID MS AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE
VALUES EXPECTED TO BE OVER 1000 J/KG. THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE UNDER
SHORTWAVE RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WEAK CAP AND TRENDS IN CU
FIELDS ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST THE RISK OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SOUTHERN
IND/CENTRAL KY. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...KS/OK...
A STRONG DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO WESTERN OK. AT THIS TIME...ALL
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL NOT
OCCUR ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF HEATING TO WEST OF
DRYLINE...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IMMEDIATE EAST OF DRYLINE...AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP DURING MAX HEATING ALL SUGGEST THAT THE RISK OF
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAINS. IF A STORM CAN FORM...LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT RISK ALONG THIS AXIS FOR THIS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SCENARIO.
As has been said could become a siginifcant event, or remian just slight...
Needs to be watched very closely!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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