Wave East of the Windward Islands

[chzzdekr81]

I think this will become Fiona.

[HURAKAN]

I think this will become Fiona.

we need 93L and 94L to cooperate for that to happen!!!

[gatorcane]

It's been steadily losing convection throughout the day. If we can get convection to rebuild, then at that point, we can have 95L. There is clearly a rotation with this wave as seen on VIS loops.

[HURAKAN]

It's been steadily losing convection throughout the day. If we can get convection to rebuild, then at that point, we can have 95L. There is clearly a rotation with this wave as seen on VIS loops.

not surprising as we head to D-MIN

[gatorcane]

It's been steadily losing convection throughout the day. If we can get convection to rebuild, then at that point, we can have 95L. There is clearly a rotation with this wave as seen on VIS loops.

not surprising as we head to D-MIN

Agreed, let's see what later this evening, into tonight brings....

[Aquawind]

I was thinking this would be Earl and it still may be they way 93L has been going. Only speedy 94L will be Danielle and we may be waiting on 93L to be Fiona. Either way things are really spinning up out there and this will have some name most likely..lol I shouldn't laugh it could be worst than anything yet this year. Looks pretty healthy on visible.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[chzzdekr81]

I think this will become Fiona.

we need 93L and 94L to cooperate for that to happen!!!

I think 94L has it. Not so sure about 93L...

[gatorcane]

convection starting to pop again....

[expat2carib]

Will be interesting to see how this one will be after Dmax.95L in a nutshell.

[micktooth]

Wow, looking impressive. With all the attention being paid to 94L, this one might sneak up on many folks. Looks like it may be a player.

[barometerJane61]

Future 95L will be the main event by the weekend

[StormClouds63]

If this stays on a westward track into the Caribbean, it has a chance for development. Perhaps Earl further down the line ...

I'm a bit more impressed with the wave complex that has just emerged off the African coast ... it, too, has a chance. Too early to tell if it is a low-rider or candidate for recurve out to sea.

Let's indeed see if the season is ready to "take off" or if these waves fall victim to the "shear monster" as well.

[lonelymike]

San Juan NWS

DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW...ADEQUATE HEATING OVER SOME
AREAS OF PUERTO RICO...AND A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TRIGGERED VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ONE
MESO-CYCLONE WITH AT LEAST 50 KNOTS ACROSS ITS RADAR SIGNATURE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY HAVE DROPPED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A
FEW LOCAL AREAS ACROSS ARECIBO AND UTUADO. OTHER AREAS FROM
MAYAGUEZ TO MOCA AND QUEBRADILLAS RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TAPERED OFF INTO LIGHT OR MODERATE RAIN OVER
WESTERN PUERTO RICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL ACTIVE ACROSS
EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND UPSTREAM TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY AWAY
FROM THE AREA. CURRENTLY STILL CANNOT USE THE NAM DUE TO ITS
TENDENCY TO EXAGGERATE THE CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION IN THE
TROUGHS THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE GOOD GUIDANCE OF A CONTINUED MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK AND EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON
THE FRINGES OF THE TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE
WEEK...FAVORING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. THE GFS
BRINGS DRY AIR INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE
MOISTURE...THAT THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS IS ABUNDANT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND THEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IN THE ITCZ. THERE MAY BE A
BREAK FROM SUCH PREVALENT SHOWERS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
ACCORDING TO BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT...WHEREAS THE GFS BRINGS
IN MUCH DRIER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...CANNOT FORESEE EITHER AN
EXTENDED SHOWER-FREE PERIOD OR...ON THE OTHER EXTREME...TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. THEREFORE LOOK FOR CONTINUED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...SOMETIMES STRONG...DUE TO THE HEATING...TO KEEP
CONDITIONS WET ACROSS THE ISLAND...FAVORING THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
IN THE AFTERNOONS AND THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN THIRD IN THE
MORNINGS.

Don't see any of the major models developing this....Oh no I'm downcasting again

[Fego]

It's been steadily losing convection throughout the day. If we can get convection to rebuild, then at that point, we can have 95L. There is clearly a rotation with this wave as seen on VIS loops.

not surprising as we head to D-MIN

Agreed, let's see what later this evening, into tonight brings....

Is there any definition or description of D-MAX and D-MIN? ... may be a link to learn more about it. Thanks!

[Blown Away]

TAFB 24 Hour:


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TAFB 48 Hour:


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TAFB 72 Hour:


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The 72 hour TAFB point indicates this wave will be moving slowly, doesn't look like it now?

[Steve H.]

Yeah, not overly impressed with the wave east of the windwards yet, seems like some element is missing. maybe the next MJO pulse will get things going.

[HURAKAN]

rotation increasing at the end

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEGUN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY
FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED ABOUT 260 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS HAS
DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AN INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MINIMAL. THE
WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Steve H.]

That's a nice view. Shows the potential.

[HURAKAN]

this is the prediction for unofficial invest 25L