Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[ronjon]

Big trough in the GOM this morning. Pressures are pretty low with around 1008.5 mb at the buoy at 28.5N-84.5W. Pressure has fallen 2 mb over the last 24 hrs at this buoy. Shear has relaxed in the eastern GOM. Not alot of model support other than the NAM and CMC but something to watch close to home.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42036&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42003&meas=wdpr&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

...GULF COAST INTO THE FL PENINSULA...

THE UPR TROF INITIALLY OVER THE ERN U.S. AND SUBSEQUENT RELOADING
OF HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE
AXIS OF DEEP MSTR AND HIGH PWATS AND KEEP MUCH OF THIS FOCUSED
ALONG A FRONT INVOF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST REGION AND THE NRN FL
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE GLOBAL MDLS ARE SUGGESTING AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH MAY HELP TO CONCENTRATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH THE 00Z MODELS SHOW A FAIR AMTS OF
SPREAD WITH REGARDS TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEP THE HEAVIER AMTS OUT OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS.

[Hurricanehink]

Convection remains draped across the GoM. The latest TWD says there's a trough in the area, but no low yet.

[jasons2k]

So, we're on vacation down on Anna Maria Island. Each day the NWS is saying 'high pressure should build from the south and the trough will lift out'. Well it's now the third day in a row now we've been looking for 'better weather tomorrow'.

Today we woke-up to overcast with rain moving in from offshore (again). It is like a tropical system is trying to ramp-up -- the flow from the SW is pretty strong and gusty winds with high waves a sea foam all over the beach.

It's neat to watch (for me) but I hope today is the day this mess finally, finally moves off to the north.

[Portastorm]

Houston-area pro met Larry Cosgrove is bullish on WGOM development. Here is a clip from his blog post last night:

But the fate of the Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones has no real bearing on what may happen in Texas. Look carefully at the GOES EAST satellite images. An area of disturbed weather has flared up over the Gulf of Mexico in association with an increasingly diffuse frontal structure. At the same time, a large convective grouping is developing over the southern Caribbean Sea, part of a chain of impulses related to Tropical Storm Frank below Mexico. The GFS and ECMWF versions have consistently shown areas of low pressure from the Bay of Campeche into the Gulf Coast below TX and LA, but times and intensities have varied wildly. My feeling is that as a huge area of high pressure works eastward across Appalachia this weekend, warm-core cyclogenesis is possible in the western half of the Gulf waters. Even without a bona-fide tropical threat, the nearby trough should supply the risk of showers and thunderstorms, bringing somewhat cooler temperatures to the Bayou City.

[HURAKAN]

There's is a low in the synoptic map

[Hurricanehink]

What's going on with Recon?

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 24 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH
MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AT 38,000 FT.
TAKEOFF TIME IS 24/1400Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[wxman57]

There is a weak frontal boundary offshore, but I don't see any sign of a surface circulation. It's something to keep an eye on, as such features can definitely develop into storms with little warning.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The Western and SW Gulf will have to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks....

[srainhoutx]

The Western and SW Gulf will have to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks....

Western Caribbean as well IMO.

[wxman57]

The Western and SW Gulf will have to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks....

And probably for longer than that. Heart of the season is fast-approaching. It can't remain quiet in the Gulf and Caribbean for much longer.

[Stormcenter]

Well it really hasn't been all that quiet so far this season in the GOM (the Carribean yes) IMO is just most of it has been nothing to write home about except for Alex. I expect something to pop up soon that has some weight to it in both bodies of water. IMO.

The Western and SW Gulf will have to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks....

And probably for longer than that, Greg. Heart of the season is fast-approaching. It can't remain quiet in the Gulf and Caribbean for much longer.

[Wx_Warrior]

After these two storms, the H parks over Easter US...that opens the door for about two weeks.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the long range Op and ensembles, the Western part of the basin appears ripe for development. As of today, the models have settled down a bit regarding the MJO. Rather stout pulse appears to be headed E just in time for peak season. While the Topic is for the Gulf, I suspect that the Western Caribbean could very well be the genesis for a rather potent storm over the next several weeks IMO.

[Bailey1777]

people say this all the time when these fronts hang up in the gom and i usually disagree but the placement this time reminds me of the way the gom looked pre alicia

[tailgater]

Latest CMC has a weak low in the NW GOM.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Also a weak wave currently south of Dominican Republic is moving wnw and could come into play as the old frontal lies in the GOM for a few days.

[StormClouds63]

After these two storms, the H parks over Easter US...that opens the door for about two weeks.

Wx-Warrior:

Would this period be roughly between September 1-15 ... after which, the fronts start pushing through with some authority? By early October, it's usually all but finished for upper TX and SW LA coast.

[Stormcenter]

In general by early October anything west of 90 can start breathing a sigh
of relief. IMO

After these two storms, the H parks over Easter US...that opens the door for about two weeks.

Wx-Warrior:

Would this period be roughly between September 1-15 ... after which, the fronts start pushing through with some authority? By early October, it's usually all but finished for upper TX and SW LA coast.

[GCANE]

I apologize if this has been posted elsewhere; but 12Z CMC is showing 850mb vorticity spinning up in the West Carib and possibly heading into the GOM.

Just something to keep an eye on for future model runs.

So far, CMC doesn't develop it as a warm core.

[southerngale]

The Western and SW Gulf will have to be watched carefully the next 2 weeks....

And probably for longer than that, Greg. Heart of the season is fast-approaching. It can't remain quiet in the Gulf and Caribbean for much longer.

That's not Greg. Greg's nick is greg_kfdm_tv