ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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clfenwi
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#101 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:01 pm

12Z NOGAPS at 180h. The 95L low is the one just north of the Antilles; area of low pressure east of Florida is from the tropical wave currently at 45W.

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#102 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:06 pm

It has the "S" shape.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#103 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:15 pm

Who is with me on 40% at 2 PM TWO?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#104 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:16 pm

I'll post an image/loop when a good regional/global image is posted, but looking at the image on the Weather Office's website, it looks like the 12Z CMC has the same path, with timing in between that of the GFS and NOGAPS; 144h has a 993 mb low just northeast of the Virgin Islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#105 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:17 pm

cycloneye wrote:Who is with me on 40% at 2 PM TWO?


I am! 20 mins until we find out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#106 Postby underthwx » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:27 pm

:uarrow: maybe higher???...
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#107 Postby Jevo » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:28 pm

someone forgot to tell mother nature that we are on the declining side of the CV season
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#108 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:28 pm

cycloneye wrote:Who is with me on 40% at 2 PM TWO?

40-50%, looks like a classic Cv development to me
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#109 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:31 pm

Maybe off-topic= Those who may be going to NRL site you may see that anything has been updated for the past few hours. It looks like we may have to look for other sources for today.

NOTE: Computer cluster issues, not creating new products as of ~10Z. Have requested IT help, unsure of response time on Labor Day.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#110 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:33 pm

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

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Last edited by Florida1118 on Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#111 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:35 pm

underthwx wrote::uarrow: maybe higher???...



You were right.From 20% to 60% is a huge jump. :eek:
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#112 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:35 pm

Waiting for the Dvorak numbers. Probably would go TD14 if T2.0 and Maria if T2.5.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#113 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:36 pm

12Z CMC at 144h

Image



Looking at the loop , looks like it might have it going through Antigua or Barbuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 2 PM TWO=60%

#114 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:38 pm

Wow, from 20% to 60%! That's quite a jump. You don't get that very often....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 2 PM TWO=60%

#115 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:39 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:Wow, from 20% to 60%! That's quite a jump. You don't get that very often....


To be honest I think it's because it should have been more than 20% at 8 am 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion - 2 PM TWO=60%

#116 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:40 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:Wow, from 20% to 60%! That's quite a jump. You don't get that very often....


To be honest I think it's because it should have been more than 20% at 8 am 8-)


I agree. I'm thinking it should have been 30 or 40 percent at 8am.
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#117 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:41 pm

Here we go...global models may be too lackluster on development.

Should make it further west than previous systems. Leewards should watch this closely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#118 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:41 pm

clfenwi,have HWRF and GFDL first runs for 95L out?
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#119 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:43 pm

12z euro running......
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#120 Postby clfenwi » Mon Sep 05, 2011 12:51 pm

It pays to be skeptical of them this early in the storm's evolution, but HWRF and GFDL were run for 95L. HWRF first

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