2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[cycloneye]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

[wxman57]

Yes. Main development region shifts southward from the subtropics in 2012 to the deep tropics in 2013. That greatly increases the chances of you being hit, Luis. And it also increases the risk to the Gulf and SE U.S. coast. I plan to be quite busy in August & September. Hopefully, the season gets off to a very slow start like 2004.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman,

You think the conditions in the gulf will be more favorable towards a true major hurricane this year. Although we have been hit here in south LA a few times they could have been much much worse if not for all the dry air, lack of instability, and of course shear.

[wxman57]

wxman,

You think the conditions in the gulf will be more favorable towards a true major hurricane this year. Although we have been hit here in south LA a few times they could have been much much worse if not for all the dry air, lack of instability, and of course shear.

I don't think the conditions in the Gulf were extremely unfavorable in 2012. If Isaac hadn't tracked over so much land, it may have become a Cat 3 or 4 in the Gulf. But with a much less hostile Caribbean this season, there's a greater risk of an intense hurricane in the Gulf.

[ROCK]

wxman,

You think the conditions in the gulf will be more favorable towards a true major hurricane this year. Although we have been hit here in south LA a few times they could have been much much worse if not for all the dry air, lack of instability, and of course shear.

I don't think the conditions in the Gulf were extremely unfavorable in 2012. If Isaac hadn't tracked over so much land, it may have become a Cat 3 or 4 in the Gulf. But with a much less hostile Caribbean this season, there's a greater risk of an intense hurricane in the Gulf.

Wonderful...

[vbhoutex]

wxman,

You think the conditions in the gulf will be more favorable towards a true major hurricane this year. Although we have been hit here in south LA a few times they could have been much much worse if not for all the dry air, lack of instability, and of course shear.

I don't think the conditions in the Gulf were extremely unfavorable in 2012. If Isaac hadn't tracked over so much land, it may have become a Cat 3 or 4 in the Gulf. But with a much less hostile Caribbean this season, there's a greater risk of an intense hurricane in the Gulf.

Wonderful...

Good to see you Rock!! My thoughts exactly. Maybe we need to request the cockroach ridge of death again?

[Hurricane Andrew]

What's that? Ridge of Death is the one that keeps everything in the gulf suppressed, right?

[RL3AO]

Starting to see a few other people talk about what could be a very dangerous season for land. We haven't had a favorable Caribbean for a few years. By the end of July, the tropical waves should be much more interesting to watch.

[vbhoutex]

What's that? Ridge of Death is the one that keeps everything in the gulf suppressed, right?

Basically a ridge of high pressure that sets up along the N GOM coastal area and makes us very hot and dry. It doesn't necessarily suppress everything in the Gulf but it "protects" the coast as long as it stays along the coast or in the N GOM. Generally when it is in existence the TC that do make it into the GOM usually make a landfall somewhere in Mexico or deep S TX near Brownsville.

[cycloneye]

There is a change in the operational ECMWF about the MSLP data in the April update that shows higher pressures than in the March update. But the ensemble mean data shows only a modest reflection of those higher pressures.wxman57, what is your take on this April update?

March ECMWF Operational update for July, August, September



March ECMWF Ensemble Mean update for July, August, September



April ECMWF Operational Update for August, September, October



April ECMWF Ensemble Mean Update for August, September, October

[SFLcane]

Luis can you post a link to the mslp data.

Erased from pc

[cycloneye]

Luis can you post a link to the mslp data.

Erased from pc

There you go!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

[SFLcane]

Luis can you post a link to the mslp data.

Erased from pc

There you go!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 0summary!/

Wow hopefully not more sub-tropic garbage

Time will tell

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The ECMWF typically has a high bias when dealing with sea level pressure and ENSO...it did last year as well.

The fact that the PDO flipped and the MDR cooled a lot the past two weeks probably didn't help. It's back to normal now though.

I wouldn't put much stock in the forecast.

[NDG]

Yes, I agree, I also would not be putting too much stock on the ECMWF's long range forecast for the Atlantic's MSLP this far out.

[HurricaneFan]

So which state is the NAO in now,negative or positive?

[cycloneye]

So which state is the NAO in now,negative or positive?

Is forecast to be positive for the next few days and then after that return to negative.

[cycloneye]

The tripole meaning warm in very North Atlantic,cold in subtropical Atlantic and warm in MDR is well established.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[ROCK]

Not sure I want another summer death ridge over Texas this year.... like to see a TS make its way over here. I need a new roof! If you know what I mean

[RL3AO]

Not sure I want another summer death ridge over Texas this year.... like to see a TS make its way over here. I need a new roof! If you know what I mean

I don't know. If storms get into the GOM this year, I'm worried they'll be far from tropical storms.