ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[jinftl]

do the euro and gfs show anything at all developing?

00Z Guidance:

[BigB0882]

I am not buying those tracks until it has actually formed. The longer it goes without formation the further West I think this will end up. The Gulf is not out of the woods, IMO.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

[Hurricane Alexis]

do the euro and gfs show anything at all developing?

00Z Guidance:

Not really. The euro splits the energy with one piece going northwestward and the other into central america.

[jinftl]

Thanks- that is what can be misleading to the non-pros like me when viewing some of the latest model maps on the thread- looks like a cane pointing at south florida but what is not there are the major models not showing this scenario - pictures can be misleading for sure. now if we see more models jumping on to this scenario, then that is a different story as the week goes on

Does get my attention looking at this though for sure!

do the euro and gfs show anything at all developing?

00Z Guidance:

Not really. The euro splits the energy with one piece going northwestward and the other into central america.

[Blown Away]

043
WHXX01 KWBC 020028
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0028 UTC MON SEP 2 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130902 0000 130902 1200 130903 0000 130903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 60.7W 14.1N 62.2W 14.3N 63.5W 14.6N 65.0W
BAMD 14.0N 60.7W 14.0N 62.4W 14.2N 64.2W 14.5N 66.1W
BAMM 14.0N 60.7W 13.9N 62.2W 14.0N 63.6W 14.2N 65.1W
LBAR 14.0N 60.7W 14.2N 62.8W 14.5N 64.9W 14.9N 67.2W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 57KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 46KTS 57KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130904 0000 130905 0000 130906 0000 130907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.2N 66.5W 17.2N 70.3W 19.4N 74.6W 20.8N 78.1W
BAMD 15.0N 68.1W 16.9N 72.3W 19.0N 76.6W 20.7N 79.8W
BAMM 14.6N 66.8W 16.3N 70.6W 18.2N 74.6W 19.7N 77.8W
LBAR 15.6N 69.5W 18.0N 74.2W 21.0N 78.3W 24.1N 79.9W
SHIP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 101KTS
DSHP 67KTS 86KTS 96KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 60.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 59.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 57.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Wow, SHIPS up to 116 mph...

[Blown Away]

00z BAM models...

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS splits this into 2 different areas, one develops a little east of the Bahamas and one area north of Cuba

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Starting to think this may never develop into anything more than it already is. Very well could end up being just like the gulf disturbance we had a couple weeks ago that models were all over the place developing a storm but the trough had other ideas and strung it out and ripped it apart. Almost same scenario just in different location.

And I can't honestly remember but wasn't it the gfs and euro that kept showing no development and the energy being split apart?

[Blown Away]

WOWSERS, LGEM to Cat 4...Haven't seen that this year...

[Blown Away]

Many 00z models have 97L in/around SE Bahamas in 5 days which is the same time the LGEM predicting Cat 4...Hope that prediction is wrong...

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zCanadian seems to be bombing this causing it to go north into PR which I think is highly unlikely

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

While 97L is due to regain convection, here are the 00Z run from the most reliable models, in terms of PR-DR.

ECMWF:


GFS:


UKMT:


CMC:


GFDL:


HWRF:


NAVGEM:

[LaBreeze]

I am not buying those tracks until it has actually formed. The longer it goes without formation the further West I think this will end up. The Gulf is not out of the woods, IMO.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.

Not buying it either BigB. If something forms, then we need to take a look - until then, it's a wait and see situation.

[tolakram]

Euro and GFS starting to come around to UKMET solution.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Certainly better defined in the latest runs of both.

[Blown Away]

72 hour TAFB position...Now tagged with "Possible Tropical Cyclone"...

[Blown Away]

06z...



06z...Most models showing hurricane at day 4/5...

[cycloneye]

12z models.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1227 UTC MON SEP 2 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130902 1200 130903 0000 130903 1200 130904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 59.4W 14.8N 60.8W 15.2N 62.5W 16.0N 64.5W
BAMD 14.3N 59.4W 14.6N 60.9W 15.1N 62.6W 15.8N 64.5W
BAMM 14.3N 59.4W 14.6N 60.8W 15.1N 62.3W 15.7N 64.1W
LBAR 14.3N 59.4W 14.7N 60.6W 15.4N 62.1W 16.7N 63.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130904 1200 130905 1200 130906 1200 130907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 66.7W 18.5N 71.3W 19.9N 75.4W 20.8N 78.8W
BAMD 16.6N 66.6W 18.3N 70.6W 19.7N 74.0W 21.0N 76.2W
BAMM 16.4N 66.1W 17.9N 70.0W 19.1N 73.5W 19.9N 76.1W
LBAR 18.2N 66.1W 21.3N 70.8W 23.8N 73.9W 26.8N 74.9W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS
DSHP 50KTS 65KTS 51KTS 57KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 59.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 58.9W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 57.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Blown Away]

12z...TVCN nows goes over PR and misses Hispaniola...

[pgoss11]

Looks like if that happens.. it might be a recurve and miss the EC.
Not an official forecast.

[sunnyday]

Is anyone buying the hurricane going into S Fl?