ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[davidiowx]

[Tireman4]

Even though we know that winds aren't going to be a big concern, I'm still worried about the flooding potential. .... Funny how last year Texas would have been starving for a storm like this, now I'm sure they just want it to go away......Let's just hope it's fast moving.

More like 2011 we were starving for rain....

[LSU2001]

Down here in far south Louisiana it sure has a tropical feel. Wind pretty steady from the southeast about 20mph with some higher gusts. Dark clouds are steadily streaming northwest so you can literally see the moisture being pumped in. Gonna be an interesting few days around here because the farther east this system tracks, the more chance we get the heavy rain and we really don't need any.
Tim

My location

[Hammy]

This seems to be developing similarly to Debby in 2012 (and interestingly we also had a May landfall that year)

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though we know that winds aren't going to be a big concern, I'm still worried about the flooding potential. .... Funny how last year Texas would have been starving for a storm like this, now I'm sure they just want it to go away......Let's just hope it's fast moving.

More like 2011 we were starving for rain....

Well Texas was still in a decent drought last year. I've been following the drought monitor charts.

Off Topic: Luckily us in California are likely to get big torrential rains this Winter due to a Strong El Nino....


Hopefully there won't be too much flooding though in Texas/LA, but right now they are saying it could be significant.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A surface trough of low pressure has moved off of the Yucatan
peninsula and into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The
system is accompanied by an area of thunderstorms and winds to
near gale force well to the east of the trough, but it does not yet
have a well-defined closed circulation. This weather system is
expected to move northwestward over the next couple of days across
the western Gulf of Mexico, where upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more favorable for tropical cyclone formation. An
Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the
system late this afternoon, with another mission planned for
Monday morning. Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For additional
information, please see High Seas forecasts as well as products
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&
High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[hurricanekid416]

I think the nhc may have this placed too far west

[tailgater]

I'm seeing a lot of low level inflow near 22N 88 W. Troughy as the NHC states.
I know it'll probably be dry as a bone in a month or two but I'm really tried of all the rain.

[Nimbus]

The surface pressure near Rio Lagartos is down around 1009 MB with a moist inflow from the west producing a steady plume of convection. No convection over the western side of the trough yet. The models might not have a clear center to initialize correctly till tomorrow.

[northjaxpro]

This system will be really lopsided with the dry air entrainmnet from the west and southwest and some shear still in the GOM, and with the apparent Low forming a bit north of where I was expecting from yesterday, I agree with wxman57 in that I believe the focus of the potential heavy rainfall threat shifts east to the SW LA coastal region by Tuesday. The system will move eventually NW and the expansive moisture field will funnel right into that region IMO. As I pointed out yesterday, I think this will eventually become a low end TS (40 mph or so), but the flooding threat looks very ominous later this weekfor sure for LA coast and extreme upper SE TX coast.

[Hurricaneman]

This system will be really lopsided with the dry air entrainmnet from the west and southwest and some shear still in the GOM, and with the apparent Low forming a bit north of where I was expecting from yesterday, I agree with wxman57 in that I believe the focus of the potential heavy rainfall threat shifts east to the SW LA coastal region by Tuesday. The system will move eventually NW and the expansive moisture field will funnel right into that region IMO. As I pointed out yesterday, I think this will eventually become a low end TS (40 mph or so), but the flooding threat looks very ominous later this weekfor sure for LA coast and extreme upper SE TX coast.

It will most likely be like Arlene in 1993 which wasn't very intense but was a real rain maker with an average of 10" in its path with 15" as a max

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Dean4Storms]

NHC is placing that X at the SW extent of the trough which runs from there Northeastward. I'd expect a low to close further toward the NE end of the trough where the convection will be most persistent.

[northjaxpro]

This system will be really lopsided with the dry air entrainmnet from the west and southwest and some shear still in the GOM, and with the apparent Low forming a bit north of where I was expecting from yesterday, I agree with wxman57 in that I believe the focus of the potential heavy rainfall threat shifts east to the SW LA coastal region by Tuesday. The system will move eventually NW and the expansive moisture field will funnel right into that region IMO. As I pointed out yesterday, I think this will eventually become a low end TS (40 mph or so), but the flooding threat looks very ominous later this weekfor sure for LA coast and extreme upper SE TX coast.

It will most likely be like Arlene in 1993 which wasn't very intense but was a real rain maker with an average of 10" in its path with 15" as a max

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, I am inclined to think this potential as well.

[NDG]

I think the nhc may have this placed too far west

Yes I agree, the X is where the vorticity I was tracking early this morning but since then a larger circulation is taking over NE of if.
Merida is now reporting WNW winds.


MMMD (MERIDA INTL ARPT, MX) observed 1747 UTC 14 June 2015
Temperature: 33.0°C (91°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 53%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.79 inches Hg (1008.9 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1008.6 mb]
Winds: from the WNW (300 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 knots; 3.6 m/s)
Visibility: 7 miles (11 km)
Ceiling: 2500 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 2500 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time

[Riptide]

The situation is ramping up. Brian Osburn is doing a livecast/chase of this system after 2 years of retirement. Enjoy guys, he will be in Texas in about 12 hours.
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/crazymother-channel-02
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-seve ... her-webcam - storm cam.

Here is his official website.
http://www.crazymother.tv/

Fwiw, Doug is calling for a hurricane.

[SoupBone]

"Fwiw, Doug is calling for a hurricane."

Doug?

[cycloneye]

By the way who is Doug? Really?

[Riptide]

By the way who is Doug? Really?

I plead my right to the 5th.

Joking. He is just a friend of Brian's, i'll take the storm2k disclaimer tho. It's worth watching for sure between the floods and/or rapid intensification. Not sure how it will play out.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not a professional Met, and read the disclimer below, but i think a very weak cat 1 is certainly not out of the question

[cycloneye]

wxman57,almost your position from this morning. At least the 90W is there

18z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2015061418, , BEST, 0, 217N, 900W, 30, 1008, DB