Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[wxman57]

Turns out the CFSv2 had a major problem. If you recall, it was about the only model forecasting a strengthening El Nino by fall. The problem is described in NCEP's PowerPoint, below. They're initiating a fix at 06Z Monday. The program will be re-run, likely showing the results on the right (Experimental) in the bottom image (neutral to La-Nina vs. strengthening El Nino). Turns out "garbage-in" does equal "garbage-out"...

See the PowerPoint slides here:
https://t.co/SpGncnWXMU

[hcane27]

GIGOAMS (Garbage In Garbage Out At Machine Speed)

[SFLcane]

Sooooo...wxman57, does this mean an increase in number of storms this yr? I for one do think this season will surprise a few hope those hurricane preps get done.

[wxman57]

Sooooo...wxman57, does this mean an increase in number of storms this yr? I for one do think this season will surprise a few hope those hurricane preps get done.

Well, neutral to La Nina conditions would certainly be more favorable than a strengthening El Nino. There are other factors, though.

[WeatherEmperor]

I still want to see how the Pdo behaves. Also, wasnt it the Euro that was forecasting slightly higher than normal sea level pressures? I believe the latest forecast is not as bad as last year but still interesting

[cycloneye]

I still want to see how the Pdo behaves. Also, wasnt it the Euro that was forecasting slightly higher than normal sea level pressures? I believe the latest forecast is not as bad as last year but still interesting

This is the ECMWF MSLP forecast for July,August and September and does not look good if is right.

[Kingarabian]

I still want to see how the Pdo behaves. Also, wasnt it the Euro that was forecasting slightly higher than normal sea level pressures? I believe the latest forecast is not as bad as last year but still interesting

This is the ECMWF MSLP forecast for July,August and September and does not look good if is right.

Interesting that the latest Euro is now forecasting even higher pressures across the MDR/GOM and lower pressures across the Pacific. Also a cause of concern for me with those blue's around/near Hawaii. Especially since this upcoming season has a good analog with 92.

[WPBWeather]

What all this might also mean is that from the 2016 National Hurricane Conference just concluded is that the Euro along with other models have definite issues with accurate forecasts from year to year--and that each model may fail from storm to storm. These issues might be model design problems OR bad data input--as with the recent CFS errors.

2016 will be an interesting year for both the PAC and ATL.

[wxman57]

The Euro is indicating lower pressures across the Atlantic for peak season than it was last year at this time. Conditions, in general, should be more favorable across the tropics than last season, particularly across the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico.

Comparison of the EC's forecast this March (top) to last March (bottom). Quite a difference in the East Pac, and lower pressure in the Atlantic:

[SFLcane]

Ah yes that's my kinda talk wxman57

[Kingarabian]

The Euro is indicating lower pressures across the Atlantic for peak season than it was last year at this time. Conditions, in general, should be more favorable across the tropics than last season, particularly across the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico.

Comparison of the EC's forecast this March (top) to last March (bottom). Quite a difference in the East Pac, and lower pressure in the Atlantic:

But wasn't the Euro showing even lower pressures last month?

[Alyono]

It's not SW of Baja that will be the big factor for the Atlantic. It's the area between 10-20N south and EAST of the Baja that the EC has a strong precip anomaly. That will simply blast shear through the Caribbean, along with sinking air

[Hurricaneman]

It seems as though the SSTAs in the PDO have taken a drop between the start of the month to now, what if anything would this do to the hurricanes season if that should flip to a negative number

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 3.2016.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 4.2016.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Kingarabian]

It seems as though the SSTAs in the PDO have taken a drop between the start of the month to now, what if anything would this do to the hurricanes season if that should flip to a negative number

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 3.2016.gif

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anoma ... 4.2016.gif

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It's hard to guage the PDO based on eyeball estimations. We don't what they use to calculate the PDO. Lots of times it looked like the PDO weakened but in turn it strengthened, and vice versa.

[Darvince]

That doesn't look like the PDO is weakening, although it is a bit odd. The PDO weakening would involve the SSTAs in the region 170-150W and 30N-50N warming up and the warm anomalies dissipating.

[Hurricaneman]

Another area IMO to look at is the Area of the Atlantic between 5N to 10S as if those numbers are negative there seems to be stronger mor robust tropical waves while if those numbers are positive it causes the waves to be weaker also might have something to do with vertical instability in the MDR as it tends to be higher with the negative anomalies in that area.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Very cold North Atlantic that may have negative implications to MDR as Dr Klotzbach mentions many times.

[WPBWeather]

I think he backed off a bit on the cold spot in the MDR, but we shall see.

[TheAustinMan]

The CanSIPS (that is, the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System) has completed its April run. Below are some SST forecast maps from CanSIPS, but you can view other variables and the rest of the run at TropicalTidbits

June 2016 Global Sea Surface Temperatures, CanSIPS


September 2016 Global Sea Surface Temperatures, CanSIPS

[Alyono]

the September CanSips is incredibly favorable, after an unfavorable June. That pattern could yield 7-10 Atlantic storms in September

Thankfully, it is the Canadian