2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are centered several hundred
miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves slowly northeastward. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rains are likely later this weekend and early next
week over portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Kingarabian]

GFS on board with development. Keeps it weak though.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

Invest 92E is up

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS showing a system after 92E in about 5 days in the same general area.

[Yellow Evan]

We are likely to set the record for latest named storm in EPAC proper (current record: June 21, 2009), given that MJO will be exiting the region and instead comes dry air. This pattern is likely to continue until late June or early July.

Now will the season be able to recover from a slow start? We have a forming La Nina, deepening AMO and below normal vertical instability. Yet we have some of the warmest waters on record (even though judging by the pattern, upward motion has been favored in the ATL so far even though global models have hinted otherwise later in the year), and shear is average to below average. I'd still go with an average season, with 1988 as a top analog, but confidence is decreasing. I'll post an actual forecast tomorrow or on Friday.

[Kingarabian]

This latest MJO event was a sham lol.

[Yellow Evan]

This latest MJO event was a sham lol.

MJO is very weak right now honestly and the timing simply wasn't right the last MJO pulse for a storm it seemed (W Caribbean disturbance, 91E didn't really get the max MJO effect evident by its horrible moisture envelope).

[stormwise]

It was not weak according to a degreed atmospheric scientist,maybe some other factor?



The pacific has been quite from west to east the most boring season in quite a few years. With that said i think the epac should have had 0ne named storm to date.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea I saw that tweet, but worth pointing out that global models have been initializing it as otherwise

[stormwise]

Maybe it was as you pointed to earlier just a mid level shear problem.

[Yellow Evan]

Maybe it was as you pointed to earlier just a mid level shear problem.

It could although I don't enough about mid-level shear and how it is normally to know.

[Yellow Evan]

Conditions may be picking up in two or three weeks. MJO should be back by then.

[stormwise]

Yea I saw that tweet, but worth pointing out that global models have been initializing it as otherwise

The OLR from C schreck is in-line with M ventrice mjo chart. But as you say is on its way around again.

[Yellow Evan]

Correct me if I am wrong but I believe that forecast is from mid May (as it says may 7 to 11 observed only; IIRC all the MJO forecasts from his site are a week or two outdated).

[stormwise]

As far as i know they are dynamic and updated yellow. Apparently there is some information relating to the westerly tilt of kelvin waves w/height could explain the lag in tc genesis if i find it i will post it maybe interesting.

[Kingarabian]

The fact that development has been forced more west than normal this year, and that conditions are not favorable this far west at this time of the year maybe the reason why.

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/905854dbcf.png

https://i.imgsafe.org/9063df360e.png

GEFS models broad low pressure over the region again in 14-15 days, hoping there is a more vigorous monsoon trof next time around.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF

[CaliforniaResident]

Nothing in the 5 day outlook.
I'm going to lower my predictions to the quietest EPAC season in recorded history:
7/3/1