ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

That would probably already be a TD by 2PM tomorrow, if the GFS is correct

[Hurricaneman]

00z Euro Parallel appears to be a reintensifying 1010mb low, moving WNW very close to, or just off Florida. Main culprit for weakening is again near 70-75W as it tangles with something as soon as it initially tries to get going.

The fact here is that there seems to be cause for concern, looking at the Euro the synoptic setup is not that different from Andrew in 1992 as that tangled with an upper low in a very similar location and after that the ridge rebuilt itself and shoved the system westward intensifying as it came to Florida, while I'm not expecting anything close to that intensity the steering and evolution of this one could be similar to Andrew with less intensity

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
The GFS is trending toward quicker consolidation of low-level vorticity (spin) with #94L during the next 2 days => quicker genesis.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/881901765326667776

[tarheelprogrammer]

The new SLIDER GOES 16 viewer.

URL that points to 94L: http://col.st/WVMGT

Full URL

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19672&y=9244&z=3&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=16&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Now that is extremely neat. Thanks for sharing it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is much weaker through 90 hours. Same with the GFS-Para.

[RL3AO]

6Z HMON shows some intensification in the next 36 hours before weakening again.

[RL3AO]

How much will the weakening upper trough (TUTT) impact 94L in a few days? A big question that we don't know the answer to.

[cycloneye]

94L is slowly organizing.

[Alyono]

MU really has this tangled with an upper trough

same MU that said Cindy would be under a massive ridge in the Gulf when it was under a massive trough

[Alyono]

UKMET enters the Caribbean

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2017



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.5N 33.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 04.07.2017 9.5N 33.1W WEAK

12UTC 04.07.2017 10.2N 33.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.07.2017 11.2N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.07.2017 12.1N 36.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.07.2017 12.8N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.07.2017 14.0N 41.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.07.2017 14.7N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.07.2017 14.8N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.07.2017 15.1N 52.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.07.2017 15.4N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.07.2017 16.2N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.07.2017 17.2N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[Siker]

UKMET takes this through the NE Caribbean.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 9.5N 33.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.07.2017 12 9.5N 33.1W 1012 26
1200UTC 04.07.2017 24 10.2N 33.9W 1011 26
0000UTC 05.07.2017 36 11.2N 35.2W 1011 28
1200UTC 05.07.2017 48 12.1N 36.7W 1011 30
0000UTC 06.07.2017 60 12.8N 38.7W 1012 29
1200UTC 06.07.2017 72 14.0N 41.9W 1012 34
0000UTC 07.07.2017 84 14.7N 45.3W 1012 32
1200UTC 07.07.2017 96 14.8N 49.2W 1012 32
0000UTC 08.07.2017 108 15.1N 52.9W 1011 30
1200UTC 08.07.2017 120 15.4N 56.5W 1011 31
0000UTC 09.07.2017 132 16.2N 59.7W 1010 30
1200UTC 09.07.2017 144 17.2N 63.1W 1011 35

[RL3AO]

I'm a little skeptical on the due NW track for most of the run. I'd watch for a delay in the NW movement in future runs.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian hits central florida at 228hrs.




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[blp]

I'm a little skeptical on the due NW track for most of the run. I'd watch for a delay in the NW movement in future runs.

Agreed. The motion on the GFS looks suspect. I can only guess it is the manner in which it tries consolidate the vorticity that causes the NW movement. But after consolidation in the next 48hrs it should be more WNW to W not NW.

[xironman]

The nasa satellite product definitely shows a twist north of the ITZ https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhe.html just don't now how to create a gif from it.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Not as confident about this as I was. The globals seem to keep it weak, and the tropical models have trended down in intensity. Not calling a bust yet, still a long way to go, merely noting that intensity, like every other aspect of this forecast, is still very murky.

[Orlando]

Judging by my arthritis hip, this one is possibly trouble. I have had some pain for the last three or four days and today is the worst day so far. It's not as bad as Matthew last year, but this invest isn't close enough yet compare the two.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO: 30%-70%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in
association with a nearly stationary area of low pressure located
about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual
development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression
could form later this week. The disturbance is expected to begin
moving west-northwestward in a day or so, and it should continue
moving in that direction through the remainder of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like they're buying into the GFS's sudden sharp NW turn. I find that a little suspect.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12

Very impressive monsoon trough circulation for early July- reminds me somewhat of 1996

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/881926695430758400