CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

HWRF / HWRF-Para and HMON - Para have a cat 3 almost 4.

I think they have Cat.4's actually. Their wind to pressure relationship is off.

they're correct due to structure. Major eyewall replacement

Wouldn't pressures naturally go up during an EWRC? I think Fernanda will go through it's fair share of EWRCs as every major hurricane does that.

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/885298742328516608

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

I think they have Cat.4's actually. Their wind to pressure relationship is off.

they're correct due to structure. Major eyewall replacement

Wouldn't pressures naturally go up during an EWRC? I think Fernanda will go through it's fair share of EWRCs as every major hurricane does that.

ERC's make the storm larger though.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 82 90 96 97 99 99 96
V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 63 72 82 90 96 97 99 99 96
V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 59 69 79 89 95 102 107 106 100
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 10 7 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 6 5 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 0 -2 0 1 -3 -4 -7 -3 3
SHEAR DIR 63 50 26 45 56 3 85 32 65 356 330 329 313
SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 150 146 146 150 153 151 146 141
200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.5 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5
700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 71 72 72 71 71 72 71 70 66 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 16 16 17 19 21 22 22 26 29 31
850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 9 13 15 18 31 24 15 8 6 15 31
200 MB DIV 35 43 51 75 85 48 81 70 84 67 118 100 115
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 1164 1242 1322 1371 1428 1546 1694 1853 2001 2150 2291 2424 2301
LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.3
LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.6 114.5 115.6 116.6 118.5 120.6 122.9 125.2 127.5 129.6 131.9 134.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 11 10 11 11 12
HEAT CONTENT 28 28 30 30 26 20 29 46 49 26 14 10 9

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 23.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 12. 16. 19. 19.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 32. 42. 50. 56. 57. 59. 59. 56.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.9 112.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.7
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 5.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.27 1.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 2.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 4.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.75 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.3 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 34.7% 24.1% 20.4% 17.9% 26.6% 35.2% 49.0%
Logistic: 12.9% 46.3% 32.9% 29.1% 23.1% 31.6% 46.7% 49.0%
Bayesian: 0.9% 29.8% 8.6% 2.8% 2.1% 7.4% 12.7% 5.7%
Consensus: 10.7% 36.9% 21.9% 17.5% 14.4% 21.9% 31.5% 34.6%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Fernanda will become the biggest ACE producer of the season and probably peak as a Category 4 hurricane. Great environment taking over after tonight. Maybe a threat to Hawaii down the line, but as always the track will shift at this range.

[cycloneye]

I think Fernanda will become the biggest ACE producer of the season and probably peak as a Category 4 hurricane. Great environment taking over after tonight. Maybe a threat to Hawaii down the line, but as always the track will shift at this range.

Dont see any more majors during the rest of season?

[Yellow Evan]

I think Fernanda will become the biggest ACE producer of the season and probably peak as a Category 4 hurricane. Great environment taking over after tonight. Maybe a threat to Hawaii down the line, but as always the track will shift at this range.

Dont see any more majors during the rest of season?

I think he means thus far.

[cycloneye]

Forecast to be a major.

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Recent microwave images show that the center of Fernanda remains
near the northeastern edge of the deep convection due to light-to-
moderate northeasterly shear. However, the center has become a
little more embedded within the cold cloud tops this evening. As a
result of the slight improvement in organization, the initial wind
speed has been increased to 40 kt. The global models show the shear
over Fernanda decreasing within the next 12 to 24 h and becoming
quite low while the cyclone moves over warm water during the
remainder of the forecast period. This should lead to strengthening
and most of the intensity guidance brings Fernanda to major
hurricane strength in 3 to 4 days. The updated NHC forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory and also shows Fernanda
becoming a major hurricane. It should be noted that the SHIPS
Rapid Intensity Index shows a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase
in intensity over the next 3 days.

Fernanda is moving westward to west-southwestward at about 8 kt. A
deep layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build
westward during the next few days which should keep Fernanda on a
west or slightly south-of-west heading. After 72 h, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward as it nears the
western portion of the ridge. The track guidance is in good
agreement through 72 hours, but there are some differences in the
forward speed of the cyclone and how much latitude it will gain
later in the period. The NHC track is similar to the previous
advisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope
at days 4 and 5. This is in best agreement with the ECMWF and
the HFIP corrected consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 11.9N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 11.7N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 11.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 11.4N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 11.7N 125.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 12.5N 129.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 13.5N 133.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Ntxw]

Be interesting to see what we wake up to

[1900hurricane]

Looks like most of the convection is firing on the south side of the center still. The anvils expanding north is encouraging, but this is not a storm that is ready to go off yet.

[Kingarabian]

Understandable considering the shear it's under. However I'm sure that the core of the storm is improving considering this recent blowup of convection.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Fernanda will become the biggest ACE producer of the season and probably peak as a Category 4 hurricane. Great environment taking over after tonight. Maybe a threat to Hawaii down the line, but as always the track will shift at this range.

Dont see any more majors during the rest of season?

I do, but Fernanda should hold hurricane intensity for about a week after becoming one today or tomorrow, and it'll spend a chunk of that time far more intense.

[Kingarabian]

HMON down to 930mb.

[Yellow Evan]

Some mid-level shear that goes away at around 118W.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 06, 201707130600, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1160N, 11360W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JF, IM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=2.5 FTBO MET

[Kingarabian]

ADT says 3.1

Considering how intense the CDO is, I'll go with 45kts

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Fixes off of recent ASCAT data indicate that Fernanda's center is
now fully embedded beneath the convective canopy, and cloud tops
are as cold as -85 deg C. The improved structure is translating
into stronger surface winds, with the ASCAT passes showing that the
initial intensity is now 45 kt.

The ASCAT data showed that Fernanda's center is moving south of due
west, and the motion estimate is 265/9 kt. Deep-layer ridging to
the north of the cyclone is expected to strengthen and build
westward, which should keep Fernanda on a west to south-of-due-west
trajectory for the next 3 days. The ridge then narrows and weakens
a bit on days 4 and 5, which should allow Fernanda to gradually gain
some latitude by the end of the forecast period. The recent trend
of the track guidance shifting south has continued, and the updated
NHC track forecast has therefore been shifted south of the previous
forecast during the first 48 hours. After that time, the models are
then suggesting that Fernanda's track may take a more pronounced
poleward bend, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little
northeast of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.

Northeasterly shear affecting Fernanda has weakened as expected,
and it's now analyzed to be about 10 kt. The shear is forecast to
diminish further, and it should generally be below 10 kt for the
remainder of the forecast period. In addition, Fernanda is
currently moving over a warm pool where sea surface temperatures
are about 29 deg C. This low-shear, high-SST environment should
spark a significant intensification trend in the coming days.
HCCA, the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), and the COAMPS-TC
model are all quite aggressive, showing Fernanda becoming a major
hurricane just after 48 hours and continuing to strengthen through
days 3 and 4. This scenario is supported by the SHIPS RI guidance,
which gives a 50/50 chance of Fernanda reaching major hurricane
strength in 48 hours. Based on these models, the NHC intensity
forecast has been bumped upward, and it generally lies near a blend
of HCCA, FSSE, and the ICON intensity consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 11.7N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 11.5N 115.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 11.2N 117.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 10.9N 119.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 11.6N 125.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 12.8N 130.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 14.0N 134.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Ntxw]

When this thing clears an eye, pretty high ceiling imo

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2017 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 11:40:55 N Lon : 114:20:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 992.5mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.6 3.7 4.4

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Kingarabian]

I'm conflicted whether this scene type can continue to be classified as a CDO (favorable for development) or a CCC (would impede development).






This ATMS pass seems to be showing a developing core which would mean that Fernanda has a legit WPac-esque CDO and is rapidly intensifying. But it's low in resolution so I'm not too sure.