USTropics wrote:00z ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.ibb.co/HChwDmW/73284851.gif
for the people saying that all the ensembles were weak today, there were some sub 960's there....
Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
for the people saying that all the ensembles were weak today, there were some sub 960's there....
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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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USTropics
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:USTropics wrote:00z ECMWF ensembles:
https://i.ibb.co/HChwDmW/73284851.gif
for the people saying that all the ensembles were weak today, there were some sub 960's there....
Here is a closer look at the 00z ECMWF ensembles that show development and potential landfall locations (not all are shown here). Quite a few strong members, and a plethora of possible solutions still:
Last edited by USTropics on Mon Aug 17, 2020 4:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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SFLcane
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
For SFL this one to watch no doubt. Closer look at overnight EPS.
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supercane4867
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
06z GFS hurricane into Yucatan then western Gulf.
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cycloneye
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
06Z GFS is very strong in SW GOM.
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cycloneye
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
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cycloneye
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
Landfall just south of Brownsville, Texas.
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SconnieCane
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SFLcane
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.
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cycloneye
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
SFLcane wrote:No invest yet with this wave.. Development probability will likely continue to go up.
Invest 98L will be up shortly.
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
I see the GFS's last two runs finally decided to join the rest of the models of developing the TW as little by little starts letting go of overdoing continuing development on the EPAC side.
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Blown Away
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
Crazy the right biased GFS if way left of the left biased EURO with this wave...
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Blown Away
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
06z GFS..
00z EURO...
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cycloneye
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
Another tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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toad strangler
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSW of Cabo Verde Islands
Just a hair N of the Eastern Hebert Box
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Re: Robust Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/HexNqRH.gif
06z GFS..
https://i.imgur.com/eyOyjDX.gif
00z EURO...
I can’t believe it, the GFS actually develops something substantial in the Atlantic!
In all seriousness, a track like that would be very bad. The GFS sees RI into a major as it Mexico and Texas in the Gulf, and since SSTs in the region are almost entirely at least 30C, that’s a bad sign for any system going in there.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.