ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

This is definitely boogying... passing barbados over the next few hours. looking good.

convection was not able to hold overnight at the wave axis so chances of development before islands is low.

but things looking good starting tomorrow and Wed for this to really come together.

GFS/Euro not to excited about 97L, but GFS want to move future 98L/Robust wave as a Caribbean cruiser through Yucatan Peninsula into S TX or Mexico? Euro and all other models seem to find ridge weakness between 80-90W... Odd to see GFS as the extreme L outlier...

[SouthFLTropics]

The gfs suddenly makes this a strong cane heading for tex/mex border at 956mb. Hopefully that’s not a trend

That's actually what will be 98L that the GFS spins up and heads to Tex/Mex.

[eastcoastFL]

This is definitely boogying... passing barbados over the next few hours. looking good.

convection was not able to hold overnight at the wave axis so chances of development before islands is low.

but things looking good starting tomorrow and Wed for this to really come together.

GFS/Euro not to excited about 97L, but GFS want to move future 98L/Robust wave as a Caribbean cruiser through Yucatan Peninsula into S TX or Mexico? Euro and all other models seem to find ridge weakness between 80-90W... Odd to see GFS as the extreme L outlier...

I saw that. I thought it was 97l. CMC and NAVGEM both seem to find that weakness as they reach western Cuba and then head for the big bend or panhandle.

[eastcoastFL]

The gfs suddenly makes this a strong cane heading for tex/mex border at 956mb. Hopefully that’s not a trend

That's actually what will be 98L that the GFS spins up and heads to Tex/Mex.

Oops. I better get myself situated as there’s probably going to be multiple storms to track here in the near future.

[SouthFLTropics]

The gfs suddenly makes this a strong cane heading for tex/mex border at 956mb. Hopefully that’s not a trend

That's actually what will be 98L that the GFS spins up and heads to Tex/Mex.

Oops. I better get myself situated as there’s probably going to be multiple storms to track here in the near future.

No worries...It's definitely going to get crowded out there. You won't be able to tell who the players are without a program.

[stormlover2013]

models will flip flop for a while back and forth, if I was a betting man this would be a la to mexico storm

[cycloneye]

97L INVEST 200817 1200 12.7N 57.3W ATL 25 1009

[SoupBone]

This is definitely boogying... passing barbados over the next few hours. looking good.

convection was not able to hold overnight at the wave axis so chances of development before islands is low.

but things looking good starting tomorrow and Wed for this to really come together.

GFS/Euro not to excited about 97L, but GFS want to move future 98L/Robust wave as a Caribbean cruiser through Yucatan Peninsula into S TX or Mexico? Euro and all other models seem to find ridge weakness between 80-90W... Odd to see GFS as the extreme L outlier...

I know this needs no disclaimer, but obviously things can change. Texas has had some serious dominating high pressure for weeks now, with the exception of this "cool" front that we have today. If that high pressure re-inforces itself, a Tex/Mex solution wouldn't be all that surprising.

[hipshot]

This is definitely boogying... passing barbados over the next few hours. looking good.

convection was not able to hold overnight at the wave axis so chances of development before islands is low.

but things looking good starting tomorrow and Wed for this to really come together.

GFS/Euro not to excited about 97L, but GFS want to move future 98L/Robust wave as a Caribbean cruiser through Yucatan Peninsula into S TX or Mexico? Euro and all other models seem to find ridge weakness between 80-90W... Odd to see GFS as the extreme L outlier...

I know this needs no disclaimer, but obviously things can change. Texas has had some serious dominating high pressure for weeks now, with the exception of this "cool" front that we have today. If that high pressure re-inforces itself, a Tex/Mex solution wouldn't be all that surprising.

I don't know about you but Dallas got a pretty good wind storm and some rain last night and the cooler temps feel good. I haven't
heard if that high is going to stay where it is or move on though.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS 150 hrs out.

Any track over the Yucatan into the BoC / W GoM and it gets shredded.
Any track over Cuba and into east GoM and could ramp up.

Timing and depth of the Rossby way will be critical.

[wxman57]

Not concerned about 97L. Watching the disturbance in the eastern Atlantic, though.

[eastcoastFL]

This thing is moving fast.

[aspen]

I wonder how Genevieve will impact 97L. Since she’s about to go nuclear and could exceed 120 kt in the coming days, that should be a lot of outflow-induced shear coming from the EPac, but she might be weakening by the time 97L shows down in the western half of the Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

97L doesn't look as threatening as it did yesterday. Probably will move west into CA or Mexico, may or may not develop due to Genevieve expected to become major hurricane in the East Pacific.

[psyclone]

97L may not pose a significant tc risk but it does appear to pose a risk of heavy rain over the eastern gulf, florida and off the east coast. should that happen it could be a net benefit for parts of florida, many of which are tracking light on rainy season precip and hot on temps. A wetter pattern could help us catch up and degrade excessive shelf water warmth, both of which would be a net benefit.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1597675100

[tailgater]

Wow lots of folk down playing 97L already, but wait until Wednesday evening and they will be calling for a monster to hit their area. I’m heading to Freeport (work) in the morning so that’s my prediction. Cat 1. How’s that for forecasting.

[NDG]

All I know is that both the 12z GFS and CMC paint a pretty good environment in the western Caribbean for 97L, I wouldn't say it wouldn't amount much yet. What happens when it gets to the GOM is still too early to say, depends how fast the deep UL trough gets out of the way.

[cycloneye]

. A fast-moving tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles
east of the Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. This disturbance is expected to
move westward at about 20 mph during the next few days, and that
fast forward speed is likely to limit significant development while
the system approaches the Windward and southern Leeward Islands
today, and moves across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, however, the system is
expected to move more slowly westward across the western Caribbean
Sea, where upper-level winds could become more conducive for the
development of a tropical depression during the latter part of this
week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are expected over portions of the Windward and southern
Leeward Islands beginning today through Tuesday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Wow lots of folk down playing 97L already, but wait until Wednesday evening and they will be calling for a monster to hit their area. I’m heading to Freeport (work) in the morning so that’s my prediction. Cat 1. How’s that for forecasting.

I am not among those pessimists. You NEVER, EVER, ever count out or downplay any vorticity tracking over very warm ssts and possibly emerging into the GOM next week.

[BYG Jacob]

People are really gonna down play a storm in the gulf?