ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[BiloxiBeachGuy]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Seems like the northern gulf coast has been a hotspot in the past few years.

Definitely keeping an eye on it here in Biloxi. Everyone on the gulf coast should be prepared just in case.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1430547392823054339




Yeah, this is definitely not very encouraging news.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1430552847679201286

[SohCahToa]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Seems like the northern gulf coast has been a hotspot in the past few years.

Definitely keeping an eye on it here in Biloxi. Everyone on the gulf coast should be prepared just in case.

Mandeville checking in!

Fiancé is 40 weeks pregnant and having a home birth sometime this week. There’s a chance my son will be born into this Hurricane tracking madness!

Changed the oil on my generator last week, and refueling the extra gas tanks when I get home from work today. Told the rest of the family they should do the same. Once this thing gets going there won’t be much time to wait and see before preparing.

[weeniepatrol]

[cheezyWXguy]

Now that a final landfall in Mexico is looking unlikely, all eyes are on the gulf coast. I guarantee that the models are going to continue fluctuating on the strength of the high, and the track may change further based on where this consolidates. So don’t be surprised if continued shifts east or even shifts back west occur. One thing that may not be clear cut for another few days is whether, when, and how strong the high will build back near landfall

[GCANE]

Looking at CAPE in the GOM.
4500 around Houston.
5000 in the NE GoM

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

This system is so elongated and moving fast on all the GFS runs so far that it makes me wonder if it will get enough time to intensify. It's literally a wave moving through the Caribbean on the models. Maybe the Gulf coast gets lucky?

[mrbagyo]

[SteveM]

Looking at CAPE in the GOM.
4500 around Houston.
5000 in the NE GoM

What do these values mean? Thanks!

[cycloneye]

I can see over 10,000 posts in this thread as things evolve with every hour of data, Satelites, ASCATS, Best Track positions, Plane missions and more.

[Tireman4]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Just yesterday we were questioning whether this would get pushed into South Texas/Mexico and go west after landfall. What a difference one day makes.

I began upping my hurricane supplies yesterday. All batteries fully charged. Only thing left for me to do is to get gas for the generator, which I won't do until a day or so before impact.

Well you know, that would be the "prudent" thing to do, sir.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/u3CvluL.gif

This is clearly concentrating on the right side, like the TX/LA model runs have shown. Looks like the first Big One of 2021 is upon us.

[Shell Mound]

Beginning to think LA, not Texas for landfall. Really, anywhere from Corpus to the MS coast.

Seems like the northern gulf coast has been a hotspot in the past few years.

Louisiana and Florida have taken the brunt of it while we in MS have been on the fringes. Wondering if our streak of luck continues at the expense of our neighbors. I know one thing: the Lake Charles area certainly doesn't need a strong hurricane.

More specifically, in 2020 most of Texas and peninsular Florida escaped significant impacts. The “hot zone” extended from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and also included South Texas, in addition to the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, and southern New England. 2021 might prove to be more fortuitous for those regions, but less auspicious for Southeast Texas and peninsular Florida. It would be quite unusual for back-to-back majors to affect the same region, much less the same communities, in two consecutive years, even though the 12Z GFS is currently showing Laura 2.0. Nevertheless, unlikely events can and do occur from time to time.

[skyline385]

Nevermind the GFS has it stalling in the Gulf now yikes that's bad

[cycloneye]

Here is the TCPOD for Thursday and Friday and there are plenty of flying by the squadron. SoupBone, you asked, they delivered a ton. Go to 99L Recon thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=122144&p=2930479#p2930479

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430535576382488582



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1430536085021642761



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430564686215405569



 https://twitter.com/SteveWAFB/status/1430509017370071043




The past three runs of the GFS have been correcting eastward within the next few days, but have also accounted for the unfavourable background state, and now show a much smaller 95E within the short term. Even though the intensity remains largely unchanged, even a moderate to strong tropical storm in such close proximity to 99L could induce unfavourable outflow over the latter, thereby delaying or even impeding its ultimate degree of intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. This should be closely watched, and could end up limiting 99L’s future intensity.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

If this storm starts to creep in the Gulf, per 12Z GFS, wouldn’t that allow for the High to build back in and push the storm to the Northwest? Also is speed a factor here (slower storm=more towards Texas?) or will the intensity determine where it goes (more powerful storm=more towards Louisiana?)

[Steve]

If this storm starts to creep in the Gulf, per 12Z GFS, wouldn’t that allow for the High to build back in and push the storm to the Northwest? Also is speed a factor here (slower storm=more towards Texas?) or will the intensity determine where it goes (more powerful storm=more towards Louisiana?)

stay tuned, it's still too early to know everything and how it will evolve. Excellent questions that most of us up this way will be looking for answers to.