ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Has an Annular Hurricane ever made a landfall in the Atlantic Basin??

Yes, Hurricane Irma when it struck Barbuda and Antigua is a great example. Perfectly circular and fierce like a tire of death with 180 mph ripping winds.

Hurricane Irma was a compact buzzsaw with some annular characteristics, but not a proper annular cane. Because of the SST profile required for annularization(?), it doesn't look like any Atlantic hurricane has made landfall while still annular.

Has the Atlantic ever had an official Annular Hurricane?

[Teban54]

Yep, Ida and Iota are the only 95 kt forecasts to date. It's seems to be some sort of unwritten rule never to put the M in the first forecast so 95 kt is the maximum. So the NHC going with 90 kt combined with their hurricane forecast in 60 hours clearly indicates that they're also quite bullish on the system. And I mean, why not, literally every model is big on development for this system. Hopefully it'll remain OTS, I'm not liking these small but consistent SW changes every model cycle.

I think the NHC is just getting more confident/better at determining storms that may quickly or rapidly intensify down the road. It's not like these sort of favorable scenarios for quick ramp-ups didn't happen historically, but prediction skills are definitely a lot better nowadays.

I did some more research and it turns out that there have actually been 3 more 95 kt first advisories. Here's an overview of all 80+ kt first advisories since the modern advisories started (or at least as far as they have been archived on the NHC website) since 1998. A big sidenote is that up until and including 2002 they only did 72hr advisories instead of 120hr. The lowest first advisory ever given to a system that eventually became a MH was to Joaquin in 2015, which was forecast to peak as a 30 kt TD.

95 kt
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2010 - Danielle
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - TD12
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Karl
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2020 - Teddy
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2005 - Rita

Worth noting that all storms with an initial peak forecast of 90kt or above became a Cat 4 or higher. While that alone is not a definite indication that Larry will be the same, it does show the ceiling will be quite high.

[Category5Kaiju]

If you are interested in annular hurricanes, the EPAC is where many of them occur. Daniel 2006 and Hector 2018, for instance.

[Iceresistance]

Yes, Hurricane Irma when it struck Barbuda and Antigua is a great example. Perfectly circular and fierce like a tire of death with 180 mph ripping winds.

Hurricane Irma was a compact buzzsaw with some annular characteristics, but not a proper annular cane. Because of the SST profile required for annularization(?), it doesn't look like any Atlantic hurricane has made landfall while still annular.

Has the Atlantic ever had an official Annular Hurricane?

Yes, here's the cases for Annular Hurricanes in the Atlantic & EPAC

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/List-of-the-14-AH-cases-identified-in-the-Atlantic-and-east-Pacific-Hurricane-basins_tbl1_228448937

(NOTE: This work was done before Linda became a very impressive Annular earlier this year.)

[tolakram]

Yes, Hurricane Irma when it struck Barbuda and Antigua is a great example. Perfectly circular and fierce like a tire of death with 180 mph ripping winds.

Hurricane Irma was a compact buzzsaw with some annular characteristics, but not a proper annular cane. Because of the SST profile required for annularization(?), it doesn't look like any Atlantic hurricane has made landfall while still annular.

Has the Atlantic ever had an official Annular Hurricane?

Isabel, 2003. Many famous pictures of it. This huge pic from wikipedia: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/33/Isabel_Sept_13_2003_1710Z.jpg

[USTropics]

Yes, Hurricane Irma when it struck Barbuda and Antigua is a great example. Perfectly circular and fierce like a tire of death with 180 mph ripping winds.

Hurricane Irma was a compact buzzsaw with some annular characteristics, but not a proper annular cane. Because of the SST profile required for annularization(?), it doesn't look like any Atlantic hurricane has made landfall while still annular.

Has the Atlantic ever had an official Annular Hurricane?

1995 Luis and 2003 Isabel definitely were annular systems in the Atlantic. Luis made landfall in the leeward islands, but likely was not annular at the time of landfall (typically systems in the open waters with suboptimal ocean temperatures experience annular characteristics):




Isabel



Honorable mentions to hurricane Edouard in 1996:

[Zonacane]

Yes, Hurricane Irma when it struck Barbuda and Antigua is a great example. Perfectly circular and fierce like a tire of death with 180 mph ripping winds.

Hurricane Irma was a compact buzzsaw with some annular characteristics, but not a proper annular cane. Because of the SST profile required for annularization(?), it doesn't look like any Atlantic hurricane has made landfall while still annular.

Has the Atlantic ever had an official Annular Hurricane?

Again, Isabel

[cycloneye]

Tic-tac-toe.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1432830938753425408

[supercane4867]

Fun fact: you can't get a hurricane more annular than Isabel. She was at one time literally geometrically circular

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Should be some nice OTS eye candy hopefully. Excited for this one.

[kevin]

I think the NHC is just getting more confident/better at determining storms that may quickly or rapidly intensify down the road. It's not like these sort of favorable scenarios for quick ramp-ups didn't happen historically, but prediction skills are definitely a lot better nowadays.

I did some more research and it turns out that there have actually been 3 more 95 kt first advisories. Here's an overview of all 80+ kt first advisories since the modern advisories started (or at least as far as they have been archived on the NHC website) since 1998. A big sidenote is that up until and including 2002 they only did 72hr advisories instead of 120hr. The lowest first advisory ever given to a system that eventually became a MH was to Joaquin in 2015, which was forecast to peak as a 30 kt TD.

95 kt
2021 - Ida
2020 - Iota
2019 - Lorenzo
2010 - Danielle
2004 - Karl

90 kt
2021 - TD12
2017 - Jose
2016 - Matthew
2009 - Bill
2007 - Dean

85 kt
2020 - Delta
2015 - Danny
2014 - Gonzalo
2011 - Karl
2010 - Earl
2010 - Igor
2005 - Wilma

80 kt
2020 - Teddy
2017 - Maria
2016 - Gaston
2005 - Rita

Worth noting that all storms with an initial peak forecast of 90kt or above became a Cat 4 or higher. While that alone is not a definite indication that Larry will be the same, it does show the ceiling will be quite high.

Wanted to let you know that I now also took cat 1s into account, which changed my original post and also your conclusion in this post.

[aspen]

The best ACE scenario for Larry is that it becomes a Cat 4 by days 4-6, then undergoes a successful EWRC into an annular Cat 2/3 and remains around that intensity for multiple more days before finally getting yeeted into the higher latitudes. That would be an east 30-40 ACE.

[grapealcoholic]

Larry already winding up it seems. Also there was an annular storm just recently this season in the EPAC; can't remember the name

[ElectricStorm]

Larry already winding up it seems. Also there was an annular storm just recently this season in the EPAC; can't remember the name

Both Felicia and Linda

[weeniepatrol]

[Iceresistance]

This thing might already have a CDO . . . Which is a sign that TD Twelve might already be Tropical Storm Larry if this keeps up . . .

There is not very much dry air or wind shear in it's way & Twelve also very good outflow as well as being a Tropical Depression, there is not very much of anything that could limit this system . . .

[johngaltfla]

Larry could be a weird storm. Just sayin'.

[Ptarmigan]

I saw the forecast models and some have Larry as a large major hurricane.

[Blown Away]

This thing might already have a CDO . . . Which is a sign that TD Twelve might already be Tropical Storm Larry if this keeps up . . .

There is not very much dry air or wind shear in it's way & Twelve also very good outflow as well as being a Tropical Depression, there is not very much of anything that could limit this system . . .

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/42372648.gif

TD12 looks like it’s moving just S of due West...

[grapealcoholic]

Ramping up quick