Texas Winter 2022-2023

[bubba hotep]

Aaand…the end of the GFS has extreme SE Texas and south Louisiana in the …….mid to upper 70’s! That’s December 17th. I know it’s La La land, but sheesh!!!

Trough pulling up warm Gulf air out ahead of it. Could certainly happen. More interesting, the 18z GEFS holds the block but is also recharging our source region. This is the 5-day followed by the 1-day

[Iceresistance]

Aaand…the end of the GFS has extreme SE Texas and south Louisiana in the …….mid to upper 70’s! That’s December 17th. I know it’s La La land, but sheesh!!!

It might be further, but look at the 12z CFS on Pivotal Weather!

Would you mind posting it?

I will try

[Ntxw]

I'm curious if the PNA forecasts have been premature. We've seen guidance after the block swing from west trof, to east trof, now to central. It's wild the run to run movements. We won't know how it will set up shop until the block happens of course. Rooting for a retrograde to SE Canada. That will dump right into TX.

[Ntxw]

It might be further, but look at the 12z CFS on Pivotal Weather!

Would you mind posting it?

I will try

CFS is white Christmas for much of TX and brutally cold through New Years...yeah...way out there.

[harp]

Would you mind posting it?

I will try

CFS is white Christmas for much of TX and brutally cold through New Years...yeah...way out there.

Louisiana?

[Iceresistance]

I will try

CFS is white Christmas for much of TX and brutally cold through New Years...yeah...way out there.

Louisiana?

Yep, they also get smacked.

[harp]

Thank you

[txwxwatcher]

Would you mind posting it?

I will try

CFS is white Christmas for much of TX and brutally cold through New Years...yeah...way out there.

What does it show for the Houston area?

[Itryatgolf]

It's interesting with such a west based -nao that it's not alot colder than it is indicating. I still believe until the Aleutian ridge that is flat shifts to a -epo, we still got a ways to go on cold weather. It looks like the -ao/nao isn't enough for us unfortunately, at least right now

[ThunderSleetDreams]

It's interesting with such a west based -nao that it's not alot colder than it is indicating. I still believe until the Aleutian ridge that is flat shifts to a -epo, we still got a ways to go on cold weather. It looks like the -ao/nao isn't enough for us unfortunately, at least right now

Stop watching models. I’ve never been more confident cold is coming. All the right people agree too… I’m talking unanimous amongst the right talking heads.

Now accompanying precip? Can’t be bullish on that at the moment.

[Brent]

It's interesting with such a west based -nao that it's not alot colder than it is indicating. I still believe until the Aleutian ridge that is flat shifts to a -epo, we still got a ways to go on cold weather. It looks like the -ao/nao isn't enough for us unfortunately, at least right now

Stop watching models. I’ve never been more confident cold is coming. All the right people agree too… I’m talking unanimous amongst the right talking heads.

Now accompanying precip? Can’t be bullish on that at the moment.

Its been pretty cold here already(24 degrees this morning) or the Friday a couple weeks ago we barely got above freezing. It just hasn't stuck around... But I think that's gonna be changing soon. So no I'm not really worried about the models. They've had some big fails the last few weeks anyway. Remember when Thanksgiving was gonna be warm and sunny?

[Cpv17]

It's interesting with such a west based -nao that it's not alot colder than it is indicating. I still believe until the Aleutian ridge that is flat shifts to a -epo, we still got a ways to go on cold weather. It looks like the -ao/nao isn't enough for us unfortunately, at least right now

I’m right there with you on this but I’m hoping in a week or two the EPO will become more favorable for us.

[Ntxw]

Keep note the long range-medium range correction in the GFS, in the pushing east camp.

[Itryatgolf]

If the weeklies are to be believed, it should get pretty cold around mid-end of December with more ridging in pacific and up towards Alaska.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Keep note the long range-medium range correction in the GFS, in the pushing east camp.

https://i.imgur.com/DDPRXNS.gif

Correcting towards us.

[harp]

GFS couldn’t be any more depressing. December 17/18 near 80 in my area. Ugh!!!!

[South Texas Storms]

GFS couldn’t be any more depressing. December 17/18 near 80 in my area. Ugh!!!!

0z Euro Ensemble shows below normal temps pretty much across the entire US during that same time frame. Trust the ensembles much more than the operational models, especially more than a week out.

[Iceresistance]

Keep note the long range-medium range correction in the GFS, in the pushing east camp.

https://i.imgur.com/DDPRXNS.gif

The GFS is correcting the cold air to be launched towards us! Also trending colder as well.

[Iceresistance]

GFS couldn’t be any more depressing. December 17/18 near 80 in my area. Ugh!!!!

0z Euro Ensemble shows below normal temps pretty much across the entire US during that same time frame. Trust the ensembles much more than the operational models, especially more than a week out.

I pay more attention to the Ensembles when the Operational models can't be used very well as a forecast. Agreement with you for that.

[Iceresistance]

Would you mind posting it?

I will try

CFS is white Christmas for much of TX and brutally cold through New Years...yeah...way out there.

I got the image! This is for popcorn (chicken) purposes, lol.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/December-1st-12z-CFS.gif