Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[hurricanehunter69]

We definitely don’t want the GFS this run. The low is so far south in the Gulf that only the area right along the coast gets any snow.

Ironic. Our busted forecasts usually involve lows tracking too far north. Getting ready for power outages though, as we all know how bad ice storms suck! ( unless you're hoping for a day off work..lol )

[3090]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

Not necessarily. If you tske the EURO for example, it has plenty enough cold air in place compared to the GFS. Wait and see. All you can do. The GFS will bring the low further north into the colder EURO model.

[Ivanhater]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

Not necessarily. If you tske the EURO for example, it has plenty enough cold air in place compared to the GFS. Wait and see. All you can do. The GFS will bring the low further north into the colder EURO model.

Are you referring to the 12z Euro? I haven't seen it yet. However, the 00z Euro showed a nasty ice storm for the Gulf coast

[Ivanhater]

12z UKmet onboard

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[Ivanhater]

12z Euro joint with Icon and Canadian and UKmet

Ice storm further south than this snowfall map but I don't have the graphics

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[Ntxw]

12z Euro

[Ivanhater]

Thank you for posting! Yikes! That would be devastating for the Gulf coast on the Euro

[Jag95]

I can't remember the year, but it wasn't that long ago when we had an ice storm kind of like what the Euro and Canadian is showing. That one was mostly sleet, and it turned the roads into ice rinks for 2 or 3 days. I'll never forget my lab that day sliding down the hills. But I don't want another one of those, even if it means we stay high and dry. To see snow like the ICON is showing would be threading the needle and I'd have to see it to believe it.

[jgh]

Jag95 I think we had a significant ice/sleet event in late January of 2014.

[Steve]

CMC joining the ICON with an ice party as the GFS backs off a bit. Also, if you don't like cold, don't click on either of the models shaded temperatures in thermodynamics


https://i.imgur.com/kPIpHvk.png

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

Not necessarily. If you tske the EURO for example, it has plenty enough cold air in place compared to the GFS. Wait and see. All you can do. The GFS will bring the low further north into the colder EURO model.

yeah, you know that's true with winter Gulf lows. All you can ever do is wait and see how they come up. I stayed up most of the night Christmas Eve/Morning 2004 watching model run after model run to see what was going to happen. It worked in our favor that time for snow. This year is sort of a parallel hurricane year landfall wise with 2004 and all the FL hits. Maybe there's a correlation?

[Ivanhater]

The models are starting to come into a dangerous agreement on freezing rain. This is one of those times I'd rather it move to rain instead. Still time but I don't like the trends one bit today.

[3090]

Unfortunately a crippling Ice storm is becoming more likely than snow for the Gulf coast

Not necessarily. If you tske the EURO for example, it has plenty enough cold air in place compared to the GFS. Wait and see. All you can do. The GFS will bring the low further north into the colder EURO model.

yeah, you know that's true with winter Gulf lows. All you can ever do is wait and see how they come up. I stayed up most of the night Christmas Eve/Morning 2004 watching model run after model run to see what was going to happen. It worked in our favor that time for snow. This year is sort of a parallel hurricane year landfall wise with 2004 and all the FL hits. Maybe there's a correlation?

Looking back at the 1895 blizzard this potential event has very similar weather pattern leading up to this event.

[Steve]

Not necessarily. If you tske the EURO for example, it has plenty enough cold air in place compared to the GFS. Wait and see. All you can do. The GFS will bring the low further north into the colder EURO model.

yeah, you know that's true with winter Gulf lows. All you can ever do is wait and see how they come up. I stayed up most of the night Christmas Eve/Morning 2004 watching model run after model run to see what was going to happen. It worked in our favor that time for snow. This year is sort of a parallel hurricane year landfall wise with 2004 and all the FL hits. Maybe there's a correlation?

Looking back at the 1895 blizzard this potential event has very similar weather pattern leading up to this event.

That’s the legend.

[Jag95]

The 18Z GFS is dry as a bone, suppressing everything way to the south. We may be "wobble watching" the next couple of days before the models get this straight. I won't really believe anything until Friday.

[Ivanhater]

The 18Z GFS is dry as a bone, suppressing everything way to the south. We may be "wobble watching" the next couple of days before the models get this straight. I won't really believe anything until Friday.

The GFS is on an island all alone. It has zero support even from its own ensembles. It will either score a huge victory or fail horribly on this one.

[Jag95]

The 18Z GFS is dry as a bone, suppressing everything way to the south. We may be "wobble watching" the next couple of days before the models get this straight. I won't really believe anything until Friday.

The GFS is on an island all alone. It has zero support even from its own ensembles. It will either score a huge victory or fail horribly on this one.

Good point. The ensembles do look similar to some of the other models showing more available moisture. But, one thing that stuck in my mind about that last Gulf low was that the GFS was the first model to lock onto the more northern route that it eventually took. The next few runs will certainly be interesting.

[Steve]

The 18Z GFS is dry as a bone, suppressing everything way to the south. We may be "wobble watching" the next couple of days before the models get this straight. I won't really believe anything until Friday.

The GFS is on an island all alone. It has zero support even from its own ensembles. It will either score a huge victory or fail horribly on this one.

Good point. The ensembles do look similar to some of the other models showing more available moisture. But, one thing that stuck in my mind about that last Gulf low was that the GFS was the first model to lock onto the more northern route that it eventually took. The next few runs will certainly be interesting.

It and all the models have been more aggressive with cold all season and had to modify. This looks like the coldest temperatures so far but who knows about precip? Then again it’s been undulating and probably goes back to ice and snow at 00z.

[3090]

yeah, you know that's true with winter Gulf lows. All you can ever do is wait and see how they come up. I stayed up most of the night Christmas Eve/Morning 2004 watching model run after model run to see what was going to happen. It worked in our favor that time for snow. This year is sort of a parallel hurricane year landfall wise with 2004 and all the FL hits. Maybe there's a correlation?

Looking back at the 1895 blizzard this potential event has very similar weather pattern leading up to this event.

That’s the legend.

I think what is going to evolve, is south of I-10 corridor will start out as sleet and or freezing rain. Depending on evolving skew numbers the snow line will move further south down to the coast. It will be a very very fine line where the break ends up. And BTW. The latest GFS ensemble has shifted the snow more south. Stay tuned because I think the GFS will fold.

[Jag95]

The 0Z ICON, UKMet and Canadian are still in one corner staring across the ring at the GFS. The Euro is still running.
<edit> The EURO makes it 4 to one. It does look a little weaker with the precip than the 12Z though, with a stronger push of cold air.

[MississippiWx]

The 0Z ICON, UKMet and Canadian are still in one corner staring across the ring at the GFS. The Euro is still running.
<edit> The EURO makes it 4 to one. It does look a little weaker with the precip than the 12Z though, with a stronger push of cold air.

The 0z run of the Euro took a major jump towards the GFS. The similarity at 500mb is much closer now. Beginning to think people may need to apologize to the GFS over the coming days. Let’s hope not, but not a fan of tonight’s run at all.