Hey SimplyKristi:
The 18Z GFS looks a heck of alot better for our area next Tuesday/Wednesday-has our 850 temps. at about 4 below with a 1/4-1/2 inch of precip. That could be 3-4 inches of snow. For our area, that is a very decent snow event-for this winter, that is absolutely huge!!! The models keep going back and forth on the track of this storm so all is still in play!! I am not trying to be negative and surely not trying to say put a fork in it winter is over!! Just based on the patter this year, it is tough-things go south when we have the cold air then go North and leave us in the warm air. Anyways, the 18GFS does bring back some hope!!!
Lawrence Kansas City ideas for next 10 days
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Good morning everyone!! Couple of quick notes about the up comming 3-5 days. Over all, the models have a goiod consensus of the Sunday system for this area. EURO, GFS, and NAM take the low Sunday just to my North-I am seeing all rain here Sunday with a slight possibility of back side flurries.
Tuesday/Wednesday Event: This is where things are different. The 0Z and 06Z Gfs again wants to trend the low back North comming right over me and has weakened it quite a bit. The 0Z EURO on the other hand wants to take the low into Texas and run it thru Southern Missouri into Souther Ohio strengthening it as it moves North East. This is the second run the EURO has had this solution. This event is still way up in the air. I would say that prob. a low track somewhere between North Texas and say Kansas City, Mo. Pretty wide swath,m but that is the spread the models have as of now. Also, the NAM looks to have a weakened storm also. If you follow the EURO, we may have a nice little snow here-the GFS would also give us and inch or two. Which ever model you follow, as of today, it does not look like Kansas City will see a major snow event. The EURO 12Z yesterday and 0Z today gives this area it's best shot. Again, it all depends on how far and fast the cold air comes in-For sure, all the models have backed off a real big cold push this week with the coldest day being Thursday. After that, the 10 day Euro continues to show the big ridge developing in the west and our hts. begin to rise. After next week, we are in for a warm up the following week as of now. All in all, it is looking much weaker for us mid week next week, but in all honesty, the models are shifting track and strength so much, it is hard to say what really will happen!!!
Tuesday/Wednesday Event: This is where things are different. The 0Z and 06Z Gfs again wants to trend the low back North comming right over me and has weakened it quite a bit. The 0Z EURO on the other hand wants to take the low into Texas and run it thru Southern Missouri into Souther Ohio strengthening it as it moves North East. This is the second run the EURO has had this solution. This event is still way up in the air. I would say that prob. a low track somewhere between North Texas and say Kansas City, Mo. Pretty wide swath,m but that is the spread the models have as of now. Also, the NAM looks to have a weakened storm also. If you follow the EURO, we may have a nice little snow here-the GFS would also give us and inch or two. Which ever model you follow, as of today, it does not look like Kansas City will see a major snow event. The EURO 12Z yesterday and 0Z today gives this area it's best shot. Again, it all depends on how far and fast the cold air comes in-For sure, all the models have backed off a real big cold push this week with the coldest day being Thursday. After that, the 10 day Euro continues to show the big ridge developing in the west and our hts. begin to rise. After next week, we are in for a warm up the following week as of now. All in all, it is looking much weaker for us mid week next week, but in all honesty, the models are shifting track and strength so much, it is hard to say what really will happen!!!
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Some thoghts about this area for the next six days:
Sunday/Monday: Looks like all rain for here-possibly some good snows to my North and West (what else is new????) The GFS and NAM still take the low Sunday right over the top of me. However, the 12Z EURO today tracks this low thru Southern Kansas and Missouri-if that were to occur, that would change things a bit. The UKMET is also much colder and has more southern track as well.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Who really knows??? The 12Z and 18Z GFS are now tracking the low further North again and have again weakened it (yesterday's runs had it south and stronger)-this model has gone back and forth every day and to be honest, it is prob. too early to even use the GFS for particulars-so why do I look at it?? The 12Z Euro has come North a bit and now has the low as a pretty good classic 4 corners Low as the low on the surface and 500 map is tracking thru southern Kansas and Missouri-the low is progged at 1013-not the strongest, but the isotherms look strong enough to give me some good snow-the 850 temps. are at minus 6. The Euro has been pretty consistent over all with this southern track and has not for the past 4 days taken this low North of me as the GFS has done. All that aside, it is way to early to tell what is going to happen-for all anyone knows, it could be sunny and warm next Wednesday!!! There is enough model consensus however to say that a winter weather event is possible for mid week next week.
Beyond that: Western Ridge baby!!! (I can here Dick Vitale now!!!) The 10 day EURO is absolutely ugly if you like winter weather.
Sunday/Monday: Looks like all rain for here-possibly some good snows to my North and West (what else is new????) The GFS and NAM still take the low Sunday right over the top of me. However, the 12Z EURO today tracks this low thru Southern Kansas and Missouri-if that were to occur, that would change things a bit. The UKMET is also much colder and has more southern track as well.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Who really knows??? The 12Z and 18Z GFS are now tracking the low further North again and have again weakened it (yesterday's runs had it south and stronger)-this model has gone back and forth every day and to be honest, it is prob. too early to even use the GFS for particulars-so why do I look at it?? The 12Z Euro has come North a bit and now has the low as a pretty good classic 4 corners Low as the low on the surface and 500 map is tracking thru southern Kansas and Missouri-the low is progged at 1013-not the strongest, but the isotherms look strong enough to give me some good snow-the 850 temps. are at minus 6. The Euro has been pretty consistent over all with this southern track and has not for the past 4 days taken this low North of me as the GFS has done. All that aside, it is way to early to tell what is going to happen-for all anyone knows, it could be sunny and warm next Wednesday!!! There is enough model consensus however to say that a winter weather event is possible for mid week next week.
Beyond that: Western Ridge baby!!! (I can here Dick Vitale now!!!) The 10 day EURO is absolutely ugly if you like winter weather.
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How do you know that you are a snow weenie??? Staying awake when you are dog tired, when you have to get up at 5:30 with kids, just so you can look at the 0z GFS for an event 4 days away when you just asked why you even look at it!!! Well, the 0z GFS has a track very similar to the 12Z Euro and 0z GEM. It has also stregthened the low to give me close to a 1/2 inch of precip. The soundings during the ht. of the precip have me at freezing thru out the whole column. The area from Kansas City-Omaha and west to Topeka, Kansas based on the 0Z GFS, 12Z Euro and 0Z GEM could see a 4-8 inch snow. If my area got 5-7 inches of snow, KC would be shut down for days!! Only slightly kidding-it would be a mess for sure as people here have forgotten that we get snow!! Will this solution stick-prob. not. The 0Z GFS again brings down a pretty strong high out of Canada which pushes the low south-had the same thing last night and the night before but lost it during the day time runs. The current model runs put the Lawrence/Kansas City area back into the hunt. I figure I will remain there untill the 06Z GFS, 0Z EURO, and 12Z GEM come out tomorrow and show something completely different-well for sure the GFS will!!! But the grat news is, is that we can begin to add the NAM to this tomorrow-oh goodie!!! How do professional METS deal with this and not go absolutely crazy!!!
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frankthetank
- Category 2
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- Location: La Crosse, WI
If I could get my hands on a WI sized snowblower, i would blow all this stuff down on Kansas 
...its melting, but we've still got got plenty...
Spring fever is infecting everyone. Driving around today i noticed MANY people wearing shorts.
Looks like winter wants to come back in this area for next week
...its melting, but we've still got got plenty...
Spring fever is infecting everyone. Driving around today i noticed MANY people wearing shorts.
Looks like winter wants to come back in this area for next week
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PurdueWx80
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Madison, WI
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Beautiful pic Frank...I can't believe there is still so much white after the warm weather. Actually, when thinking about it, the sun is much less efficient in reducing snowcover if there is low humidity. More energy then goes into evaporation rather than melting, which is a much slower process. If it were more humid out during the day, more would melt. Actually, tonight and tomorrow should see more than today because we won't go too much below freezing tonight if at all, and today's evaporation increased the low-level RH by quite a bit.
Looks like we'll be adding to the white that doesn't melt sometime next week, even if the bigger of the storms passes south or east of here. Rest of Feb looks pretty cold up here too. Enjoy tomorrow's 50's and 60's!
Looks like we'll be adding to the white that doesn't melt sometime next week, even if the bigger of the storms passes south or east of here. Rest of Feb looks pretty cold up here too. Enjoy tomorrow's 50's and 60's!
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Happy Weekend everyone!!! A couple of thoughts this morning:
Sunday/Monday: 0Z Euro has tracked the low further North again, but still brings it across just south of this area-this pretty close to the UKMET and 0Z and 06Z GFS-I am still mostly rain, but would not be out of the question to see a brife period of wet snow back behind. This is still progged as the stronger storm
Tuesday/Wednesday: The NAM has a very waek storm for this which is different than the EURO, GFS, and GEM. The 0z and 06z GFS keeps the track the same on both runs and has me in close to a half inch of precip wiht the whole colum at freezing during the greatest precip and temps. dropping. The 0Z Euro takes the low further south than did the 12Z run-pushing it all the way down to southern Oklahoma then up thru Southern Missouri to the Eastern great lakes. In my oponion, and I am prob. totally off, but it loks to me like, based on the this mornings models, that my area has a pretty good shot a fairly good snow event mid week-the best snow event for here since November. Of course alot can change in 3 days and the front has currently stalled in North Dakota so who knows-but at least this mornings runs are somewhat encouraging if you want like snow for this area. I would say from Topeka, KS to Omaha Nebraska back into Kansas City has a chance at 3-8 inches of snow with the lower amounts being south due to temps. Omaha looks to get in on this very well.
After this, a massive warm up as the ridgs in the West jumps hts. way up al the way thru Southern Canada. However, the 0z GFS was hinting at some stj action next weekend which is tot. different than the EURO but that is so far away that I would have to believe the EURO.
Sunday/Monday: 0Z Euro has tracked the low further North again, but still brings it across just south of this area-this pretty close to the UKMET and 0Z and 06Z GFS-I am still mostly rain, but would not be out of the question to see a brife period of wet snow back behind. This is still progged as the stronger storm
Tuesday/Wednesday: The NAM has a very waek storm for this which is different than the EURO, GFS, and GEM. The 0z and 06z GFS keeps the track the same on both runs and has me in close to a half inch of precip wiht the whole colum at freezing during the greatest precip and temps. dropping. The 0Z Euro takes the low further south than did the 12Z run-pushing it all the way down to southern Oklahoma then up thru Southern Missouri to the Eastern great lakes. In my oponion, and I am prob. totally off, but it loks to me like, based on the this mornings models, that my area has a pretty good shot a fairly good snow event mid week-the best snow event for here since November. Of course alot can change in 3 days and the front has currently stalled in North Dakota so who knows-but at least this mornings runs are somewhat encouraging if you want like snow for this area. I would say from Topeka, KS to Omaha Nebraska back into Kansas City has a chance at 3-8 inches of snow with the lower amounts being south due to temps. Omaha looks to get in on this very well.
After this, a massive warm up as the ridgs in the West jumps hts. way up al the way thru Southern Canada. However, the 0z GFS was hinting at some stj action next weekend which is tot. different than the EURO but that is so far away that I would have to believe the EURO.
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frankthetank
- Category 2
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Well, the 12Z GFS has come in colder and stronger for my area for Tuesday/Wednesday. The low is tracking thru Southern Kansas and places my area in the bulls eye at 84 hours with the whole colum below freezing. On the other hand, the 12Z NAM is much weaker, further North and about 4 degrees warmer. The 0Z Euro is still south as is the 0z GEM-will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro shows today-I would think that with this event with in 84 hours, we would begin to get some concensus with the event. By the 12Z GFS, (I wish it could find a nut one time for this area-it has had us in the sweet spot 5 times and then ripped it away!!) I would see over a 1/2 inch of precip with all below freezing-could see close to 5 inches with that. Another thought: The cold air-the front is still stalled in North Dakota-if it hasn't moved by tonight, then I'd say models will begin again to show a Northern track. Must say though, that the past model runs are beginning to show the possibility of a pretty good snow event for this area. Will it happen? Still way too early, but I am still in the hunt and I have been in this hunt longer than anyother so far this year-84 hours-so close!!!
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Quick and Interesting Note: The 18Z NAM takes the low Tuesday/Wednesday thru Central Nebraska-that is by far the farthest Northern track-if the 12Z Euro does this then I'm in trouble, but I have to think the NAM is really off based on other model runs-I think the cold air makes it much farther south than the NAM is predicting. Time will tell.
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Sorry to keep posting every 2 hours, but this storm Tuesday/Wed. has got me going-for what reason I don't know-
The 12Z Euro is even a bit further south as the low moves thru Oklahoma it keeps moving east into Tenn. and weakens as it does. The 18Z GFS is a total 180 from the 12Z-1. The Low is now running thru Nebraska and a another low has now formed over far southern Texas which really sucks out alot of the precip. The 18Z GFS splits the storm in two with the stronger one far south. I have to face it: I'm not near qualified enough to analyze this-to me, the 18Z GFS is just not right-now if the 0Z GFS comes back with the same scenario then something is crazy-but I just can't buy the 18Z GFS or NAM just because they are so different than their own previous runs and runs of other models. Also, I just don't buy the fact that the front is not going to make it thru this area-it is currently ready to move into Nebraska so by tomorrow it should be getting close to this area-the only reason i could see that low going that far North is if the cold front stalls over Nebraska. The EURO still gives me a pretty good track-will be interesting to see what the 0z runs say for sure.
The 12Z Euro is even a bit further south as the low moves thru Oklahoma it keeps moving east into Tenn. and weakens as it does. The 18Z GFS is a total 180 from the 12Z-1. The Low is now running thru Nebraska and a another low has now formed over far southern Texas which really sucks out alot of the precip. The 18Z GFS splits the storm in two with the stronger one far south. I have to face it: I'm not near qualified enough to analyze this-to me, the 18Z GFS is just not right-now if the 0Z GFS comes back with the same scenario then something is crazy-but I just can't buy the 18Z GFS or NAM just because they are so different than their own previous runs and runs of other models. Also, I just don't buy the fact that the front is not going to make it thru this area-it is currently ready to move into Nebraska so by tomorrow it should be getting close to this area-the only reason i could see that low going that far North is if the cold front stalls over Nebraska. The EURO still gives me a pretty good track-will be interesting to see what the 0z runs say for sure.
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Good morning!! Well, basically, all the models have trended the low Tuesday/Wednesday much weaker than Friday's runs. The trend began yesterday and continues today. The EURO, GFS, UKMET, and GEM all take the low thru Oklahoma-the GFS now has it in Texas!!-The NAM on the 06Z run has pushed the low back into Northern Missouri-I still believe that is too far North. By the looks of things currently, I may be able to squeeze out 1-2 inches from this event but of course things could change. With the cold front setting up shop in Southern Kansas, maybe the low will gain some strength as it interacts with warm air to the south. However, this low now is using up quite a bit of energy and if the GFS is to believed, most of the energy Tuesday will be south from Southern Missouri to the Gulf. If lesser precip develops along the gulf coast, maybe more moisture can be thrown further North. (this did happen in our one good snow last year-thunderstorms died out in Louisiana and we got good mositure) Grasping at straws here!! One thing for sure, We will have close to an inch of rain today-figures-get moisture no cold air-cold air no moisture-story of this winter!!! I'm sure I'll still watch the model runs though it is now getting close to surface data watch and radar watch.
Beyond this: The GFS wants to bring in a chance of snow next weekend into early next week though the latest runs have trended much further south. The EURO seems to be showing another rain storm.
Beyond this: The GFS wants to bring in a chance of snow next weekend into early next week though the latest runs have trended much further south. The EURO seems to be showing another rain storm.
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So close, yet so far away!!!! Concordia Kansas 150 miles to my North and West is now at 30 degrees-I'm still at 45-the front which was moving pretty good earlier has stalled a bit just North west of Topeka. It does appear to me however, that the low will take more of south and east track as the EURO has depicted the past 2 days and not the North track as depicted by the GFS and NAM. I could be wrong, but if that low does track south then head north east thru Missouri as the EURO show, I could possibly see some back side flurried tomorrow. Not to bore you, but we had a very similar situation in Feb. 1996-Tuesday Afternoon it was close to 60-big storms rolled in around 5:00 P.M. then it stayed mild untill about 10:00 p.m.-by 3:00 A.M Wed., the wind was blowing at 30 MPH from the North and we had sleet and snow-wound up with 5 inches-pretty crazy deal. I'm not saying that will happen at all, but it has in the past.
The storm Tuesday/Wed. is slowly fading away-the 18Z NAM totally loses it!!! Next weekend looks to be rain via the EURO which is much more believable than the GFS. After the next week, with the STJ going and all the rain we look to get, our drought will rerally finally be over.
The storm Tuesday/Wed. is slowly fading away-the 18Z NAM totally loses it!!! Next weekend looks to be rain via the EURO which is much more believable than the GFS. After the next week, with the STJ going and all the rain we look to get, our drought will rerally finally be over.
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Again, not to post every 2 hours, but there is some interesting stuff happening here in my opinion.
1. Tonight/Tomorrow: The front has now passed thru my area-my winds have switced to the North and Manhattan, KS (Home of Kansas State University) is at 35-60 miles North West of them is at 29. Over the next 5-6 hours, my temp. should really start dropping. The kicker: The low is presently in Northern Oklahoma-much further south than any model (accept of course the EURO) had it progged. It is still forecasted to head North East-if the front is set up over Central Missouri when that low begins to move North, it could be a bit interesting here. You can see precip. explode on the radar over North central Kansas the past 3 hours. Prob. will amount to nothing, but it is kind of interesting.
2. The 0z NAM has rediscovered the low for Tuesday/Wed. and from 39z-48z has me in 1/4-1/2 inch of precip with the whole whole column below freezing including thew surface. If that were to verify, I could easily see 2-4 inches from that. The 0z GFS is weaker than the NAM, but much stronger than the 12Z or the 18Z-I would get about 1-2 tops from the GFS. The way things have been going, I would not be surprised to see the 06 NAM totally loose this but it is interesting. Will also be interesting to see if the 0Z EURO strengthens the storm at all as well. The 12Z UKMET is stronger than the GFS. Should hopefully get a better concensus from run to run tomorrow. But hey, I've caught back up with the hunters!!!!
1. Tonight/Tomorrow: The front has now passed thru my area-my winds have switced to the North and Manhattan, KS (Home of Kansas State University) is at 35-60 miles North West of them is at 29. Over the next 5-6 hours, my temp. should really start dropping. The kicker: The low is presently in Northern Oklahoma-much further south than any model (accept of course the EURO) had it progged. It is still forecasted to head North East-if the front is set up over Central Missouri when that low begins to move North, it could be a bit interesting here. You can see precip. explode on the radar over North central Kansas the past 3 hours. Prob. will amount to nothing, but it is kind of interesting.
2. The 0z NAM has rediscovered the low for Tuesday/Wed. and from 39z-48z has me in 1/4-1/2 inch of precip with the whole whole column below freezing including thew surface. If that were to verify, I could easily see 2-4 inches from that. The 0z GFS is weaker than the NAM, but much stronger than the 12Z or the 18Z-I would get about 1-2 tops from the GFS. The way things have been going, I would not be surprised to see the 06 NAM totally loose this but it is interesting. Will also be interesting to see if the 0Z EURO strengthens the storm at all as well. The 12Z UKMET is stronger than the GFS. Should hopefully get a better concensus from run to run tomorrow. But hey, I've caught back up with the hunters!!!!
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frankthetank
- Category 2
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- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:16 pm
- Location: La Crosse, WI
Sounds like the models have been all over the place.
I've just looked @ the 144 168 Euro...looks like another warm up is in store (for us)... Northeast looks downright arctic!...
We really got rid of a lot of snow the past 24hrs. You can see grass almost everywhere now. Still some giant mounds here and there.
Rain fell hard around here most of the day and now the temp is dropping.
I was searching back through Lawrence, KS records over at wu and noticed that you have been in a snow drought! With your AVG Temp now above 40f its becoming harder every day(vs my 29f)...maybe you can still eek out a blizzard
I've just looked @ the 144 168 Euro...looks like another warm up is in store (for us)... Northeast looks downright arctic!...
We really got rid of a lot of snow the past 24hrs. You can see grass almost everywhere now. Still some giant mounds here and there.
Rain fell hard around here most of the day and now the temp is dropping.
I was searching back through Lawrence, KS records over at wu and noticed that you have been in a snow drought! With your AVG Temp now above 40f its becoming harder every day(vs my 29f)...maybe you can still eek out a blizzard
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Frank:
Thanks for the response!! We have been in a pretty bad snow drought the past 10-12 years-nothing to do with global warming (many around here want to attribute it to that) as our lakes have frozen up solid in several of those years-just don't have everything comming together!! Also, the coldest average temp. for us is 39-that gives us alot of days in the 40's and 50's!!! Our temp. does begin to rise in Feb. but it is also our snowiest month on average-but with the pattern developing it doesn't look too good. Next weekend however could prove to be interesting as the STJ is really going and we could see a snow storm as a low undercuts the ridge. Who knows-I have said and I believe this: Tuesday/Wed. is our best tangible shot at a decent (well, decent for here the past 10 years) snow. While the GFS shows a storm next weekend, the EURO says no-time will tell.
Thanks for the response!! We have been in a pretty bad snow drought the past 10-12 years-nothing to do with global warming (many around here want to attribute it to that) as our lakes have frozen up solid in several of those years-just don't have everything comming together!! Also, the coldest average temp. for us is 39-that gives us alot of days in the 40's and 50's!!! Our temp. does begin to rise in Feb. but it is also our snowiest month on average-but with the pattern developing it doesn't look too good. Next weekend however could prove to be interesting as the STJ is really going and we could see a snow storm as a low undercuts the ridge. Who knows-I have said and I believe this: Tuesday/Wed. is our best tangible shot at a decent (well, decent for here the past 10 years) snow. While the GFS shows a storm next weekend, the EURO says no-time will tell.
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Could it actually happen?? Could my area actually see a 3 inch snow fall with temps. below freezing?? Well, the 12Z GFS and 12Z NAM and even the UKMET give me a pretty good shot. Will this be major?? No-but in a snow starved winter that we have so far, 3 inches with the temp. below freezing would be the biggest snow of 2005!! Still, with the way this winter has evolved, it is still way early!!! Time to start watching the radars and temps.!!!
This weekend: Looks to be rain again here-possibly snow North. However, the 10 day Euro is hinting at something for next week-we shall see. The only thing about this weekend: The models really underestimated the cold front as it came thru here 12 hours early-maybe it will be cold enough this weekend-does bear watching!!!
This weekend: Looks to be rain again here-possibly snow North. However, the 10 day Euro is hinting at something for next week-we shall see. The only thing about this weekend: The models really underestimated the cold front as it came thru here 12 hours early-maybe it will be cold enough this weekend-does bear watching!!!
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frankthetank
- Category 2
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- Location: La Crosse, WI
walking outside this morning suprised me with around an inch of very fluffy snow...
ECMWF is really on for heat next Sunday...wow this snow isn't going to last very long...very strong temp gradient across the area this morning from 42f in Chicago to -4 in Fargo...
You'll be posting about twisters and severe thunderstorms in no time at all!
actually if the euro would pan out, we'd be warmer then you...
ECMWF is really on for heat next Sunday...wow
this snow isn't going to last very long...very strong temp gradient across the area this morning from 42f in Chicago to -4 in Fargo...
You'll be posting about twisters and severe thunderstorms in no time at all!
actually if the euro would pan out, we'd be warmer then you...
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