Camile not as bad as I thought!!!!

[Derek Ortt]

Frederick was legitimate as the second most intense hurricane ever to strike the northern GOM (east of Louisiana)

Ivan's surge should have been higher than Frederick's. Ivan was as strong as Audrey from the time it moed into the GOM until about 6 hours before landfall when the pressure rose roughly 17mb in its final 6 hours over the water. Frederick came in at peak intensity; thus, the storm surge did not have a chance to build up as high

[mobilebay]

I understand what you are talking about now. I remember the damage (wind damage) that Frederic caused, and it was only a 3. I can't imagine what the damage would be during a true Cat 5 Hurricane.

[Anonymous]

Well, I would have to guess Camile was 180 mph. Based on a few things...

The 1935 Hurricane had a pressure of 892 mb, and was about 185 mph..
Gilbert had an 888 mb pressure, and was 185 mph.

Camille had a 909 mb pressure, and Mitch was similar with 906 mb. Since Mitch was 180 mph, and we know Camille was weaker than 1935's 185 mph...180 mph seems right.

[SouthernWx]

Well, I would have to guess Camile was 180 mph. Based on a few things...

The 1935 Hurricane had a pressure of 892 mb, and was about 185 mph..
Gilbert had an 888 mb pressure, and was 185 mph.

Camille had a 909 mb pressure, and Mitch was similar with 906 mb. Since Mitch was 180 mph, and we know Camille was weaker than 1935's 185 mph...180 mph seems right.

I agree with you on Camille's landfall intensity being 155 kts (175-180 mph, gusting over 200 mph), but to rate the sustained winds of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as 160 kts (185 mph) is a very conservative estimate....when researching the carnage it caused, PLUS comparisms to other similar size hurricanes.

For example, last year hurricane Charley had 130-135 kt sustained winds with a central pressure of 941 mb. Extrapolate down to 892 mb, and you get a value of 170-175 kt (or 195-200 mph). A few years ago, another micro-monster hurricane (Iris) obliterated Monkey River Town, Belize.....sustained winds of 125 kt (145 mph) with an estimated central pressure around 950 mb; extrapolation down to 892 mb gives an estimated sustained surface wind of 174 kt (or 200 mph).

There's pretty good evidence to support at least 170 kt sustained winds in the Labor Day hurricane as it crossed the middle Florida Keys.
Remember the horrifying video of hurricane Charley taken by storm chasers? It was reminiscent of a F3 tornado...buildings exploding, pieces of buildings flying through the air. Well, those were 150-160 kt gusts (175-190 mph)....now imagine the hell-on-earth those helpless vets went through in 1935....down in the Keys with gusts in the 190-200 kt range (220-230 mph); like facing the fury of a F4 tornado...and unlike Charley in late afternoon, the 1935 Keys hurricane struck at night (plus a massive 15-20' foot storm surge that fortunately didn't occur with Charley).

Also, a couple note about hurricane Gilbert. I'm not sure where they came up with the 160 kt sustained wind figure.....700 mb flight level winds never exceeded 173 kts (meaning surface winds were IMO closer to 150-155 kt OR 175 mph).

In fact, the flight level winds encountered by recon in 1992's hurricane Andrew were nearly as strong (170 kt) as occurred in hurricane Gilbert (173 kt), even though Gilbert was a much deeper hurricane (888 mb vs 922 mb for Andrew); Gilbert was also a much larger hurricane....sprawling over a wide area while Andrew was small and compact (and the Labor Day hurricane even smaller than Andrew....similar in size to Charley; an extremely small and violent core region).

Just for the record....hurricane Camille was also a small, compact and extremely intense hurricane; not quite twice the size of Andrew, but still much smaller than Gilbert. At peak intensity (905 mb), Camille's sustained winds were likely as strong or possibly even stronger than Gilbert's.....155-160 kt IMO.


Note: if I were to rate the most intense Atlantic hurricanes of record, based on my estimated sustained surface winds (and the data I've researched), it would be:

1) 1935 Labor Day hurricane @ 892 mb
170-175 KT (195-200 mph)

2) 1980 Allen @ 899 mb
165 KT (190 mph)

3) 1969 Camille @ 905 mb
160 KT (185 mph)

4) 1999 Mitch @ 906 mb
155 KT (180 mph)

5t) 1988 Gilbert @ 888 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

5t) 1992 Andrew @ 922 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

5t) 1955 Janet @ 914 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

Last years hurricane Ivan (910 mb), 2003 Isabel (915 mb), and several other hurricanes fall just below the 175 mph threshold (1979 David, 1961 Hattie, 1977 Anita, 1989 Hugo, and 1966 Inez among others)


PW

[donsutherland1]

Thanks Perry.

There's no doubt that you are a real asset when it comes to historical knowledge of hurricanes. With regard to Camille, I'm confident that when the reanalysis on the storm is completed--1960s actually begins next year--Camille's legacy will remain intact. I know some have sincere disagreements, but at least from the body of evidence I have seen, the overall weight of the evidence speaks for Camille's extreme intensity.

Best wishes.

[donsutherland1]

Derek,

I agree with you concerning Frederic. Ivan was weakening quite quickly as he made landfall just to the east of Mobile Bay.

[Anonymous]

Well, I would have to guess Camile was 180 mph. Based on a few things...

The 1935 Hurricane had a pressure of 892 mb, and was about 185 mph..
Gilbert had an 888 mb pressure, and was 185 mph.

Camille had a 909 mb pressure, and Mitch was similar with 906 mb. Since Mitch was 180 mph, and we know Camille was weaker than 1935's 185 mph...180 mph seems right.

I agree with you on Camille's landfall intensity being 155 kts (175-180 mph, gusting over 200 mph), but to rate the sustained winds of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane as 160 kts (185 mph) is a very conservative estimate....when researching the carnage it caused, PLUS comparisms to other similar size hurricanes.

For example, last year hurricane Charley had 130-135 kt sustained winds with a central pressure of 941 mb. Extrapolate down to 892 mb, and you get a value of 170-175 kt (or 195-200 mph). A few years ago, another micro-monster hurricane (Iris) obliterated Monkey River Town, Belize.....sustained winds of 125 kt (145 mph) with an estimated central pressure around 950 mb; extrapolation down to 892 mb gives an estimated sustained surface wind of 174 kt (or 200 mph).

There's pretty good evidence to support at least 170 kt sustained winds in the Labor Day hurricane as it crossed the middle Florida Keys.
Remember the horrifying video of hurricane Charley taken by storm chasers? It was reminiscent of a F3 tornado...buildings exploding, pieces of buildings flying through the air. Well, those were 150-160 kt gusts (175-190 mph)....now imagine the hell-on-earth those helpless vets went through in 1935....down in the Keys with gusts in the 190-200 kt range (220-230 mph); like facing the fury of a F4 tornado...and unlike Charley in late afternoon, the 1935 Keys hurricane struck at night (plus a massive 15-20' foot storm surge that fortunately didn't occur with Charley).

Also, a couple note about hurricane Gilbert. I'm not sure where they came up with the 160 kt sustained wind figure.....700 mb flight level winds never exceeded 173 kts (meaning surface winds were IMO closer to 150-155 kt OR 175 mph).

In fact, the flight level winds encountered by recon in 1992's hurricane Andrew were nearly as strong (170 kt) as occurred in hurricane Gilbert (173 kt), even though Gilbert was a much deeper hurricane (888 mb vs 922 mb for Andrew); Gilbert was also a much larger hurricane....sprawling over a wide area while Andrew was small and compact (and the Labor Day hurricane even smaller than Andrew....similar in size to Charley; an extremely small and violent core region).

Just for the record....hurricane Camille was also a small, compact and extremely intense hurricane; not quite twice the size of Andrew, but still much smaller than Gilbert. At peak intensity (905 mb), Camille's sustained winds were likely as strong or possibly even stronger than Gilbert's.....155-160 kt IMO.


Note: if I were to rate the most intense Atlantic hurricanes of record, based on my estimated sustained surface winds (and the data I've researched), it would be:

1) 1935 Labor Day hurricane @ 892 mb
170-175 KT (195-200 mph)

2) 1980 Allen @ 899 mb
165 KT (190 mph)

3) 1969 Camille @ 905 mb
160 KT (185 mph)

4) 1999 Mitch @ 906 mb
155 KT (180 mph)

5t) 1988 Gilbert @ 888 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

5t) 1992 Andrew @ 922 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

5t) 1955 Janet @ 914 mb
150-155 KT (175 mph)

Last years hurricane Ivan (910 mb), 2003 Isabel (915 mb), and several other hurricanes fall just below the 175 mph threshold (1979 David, 1961 Hattie, 1977 Anita, 1989 Hugo, and 1966 Inez among others)


PW

Yes, but remember pressure-wise is a tricky thing. Charley was 150 mph/941 mb, but was in an area of higher pressures. Typically, Charley's pressure would have been about 931 mb or so.

[Derek Ortt]

charley was interacting with a trough and another TS, not really a low pressure environment.

It was so intense because of its size

[MGC]

Pressure gradient and eye diameter determine wind speed if I recall. Assume for a moment two hurricanes with identical central pressures. One hurricane is small the other has a larger eye. I believe I am correct to deduce that the smaller hurricane would have the higher winds. The ranking of hurricanes by central pressure is a bit misleading. Also it must be considered if the hurricane is in a strengthening or weakening phase. Opal was 942mb at landfall and Fredrick was 946mb. Fredrick was by far a more damaging hurricane as it was still intensifying as it moved ashore.....MGC

[Anonymous]

Yes..but remember, Opal had been 916 mb in the Gulf, and was weakening.

[dhweather]

But the point is don't judge the storm by pressure alone

[Opal storm]

half of the FL Peninsula hurricanes also are not of the correct intensity.

1. No evidence suggests that Alicia was a major hurricane. Absolutely none at all. Should be worth nothing that wind s on land from Claudette were higher than Alicia. Try reading the reports.

2. NHC has Opal correct at 100KT and it may be revised up to 105KT based upon FL winds

3. Mobile Bay, you may think that you have went through the worst, but you have not. The northern GOM will be obliterated when a real strong cat 3 or cat 4 hits the area and people will be saying that soemthing which is a strong cat 3 was really a 5 based upon the damage, much like some were saying regarding Ivan... areas that had not been hit since 1926 and didn't have the slightest clue as to what a real hurricane would do

Derek,I don't remember anyboby regarding Ivan's damage to a 5.And Ivan was a real strong 3 and we were not obliterated.Ofcourse we had catestrophic storm surge,but the wind damage matched perfectly with a 3 in the Perdido Key area.I don't know why you say we don't have the slightest clue,that is almost an insult considering we've seen Opal,Erin,Georges,Ivan and more.No,not everybody along the N Gulf coast have experienced Cat 3 conditions but we've seen enough around here to know what to expect.If you ask me building codes up here are probably better than S Florida.Reason I say that is becuase take a look at the majority of those neighborhhods destroyed by Charley.There almost all trailer parks,and those things are so vulnerable to high winds a category 1 could've done the same.Not saying Charley wasn't a 4,but I'm sure those houses were already leveled before the strongest winds even came ashore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Charley had damage almost has bad as hurricane Andrew 1992. But Charley was much smaller. I could say Charley was alot like cyclone tracy in size/Pressure/Power.

[Derecho]

The fact remains that there is in fact a phenomenon where people tend to overestimate wind speeds...

If you flat out put people in a wind tunnel and cranked it to 20 mph they'd guesstimate 40 mph and moved it up to 40 mph they'd tell you it had to be 80 mph;

Strong sustained winds are far rarer than people think; and wind speeds that SOUND small are actually pretty powerful.

This also extends to hurricanes, though. It's almost a point of pride for people to claim they were hit by higher winds than they actually were; it's also a result of Everything below Cat 4 being conisdered "only" a Cat 1, or Cat 2, or whatever, almost as if they shouldn't be expected to cause damage.

Also people who are on the fringes of a storm will in future years report that they experienced the max reported winds of a storm.

I've seen multiple examples of this in chat over the years;

MANY years ago in the very old StormXX chat room I got into arguments with a couple of regular chatters from the USVI who INSISTED Marilyn was a "Cat 5" but this fact was being "Covered up" by NHC, when in fact it was a top end Cat 2 with the absolute strongest part of the storm hitting St. Thomas perfectly.

Then later I was talking with someone who said they had experienced a "Cat 4"....on further quizzing them I found out they were in Ocean City Maryland when GLORIA went by, which is hilarious on many levels 1) Gloria was briefly a Cat 4 near the Bahamas but rapidly weakened after that 2) Gloria didn't come remotely close to hitting OC MD directly.

[Derek Ortt]

everyone,

disregard what Opal storm said

Ivan was a marginal cat 3 at landfall and everyone knows this

Pierdido Key did not experience major hurricane conditions before Ivan, but then again everyone knows this as well

It is statements like yours, Opal Storm, that cause people to think they have survived a major hurricane and leads to them making horrible decisions, when they have really survived a tropical storm, which is all Pierdido Key received from Opal, Erin, and Georges, regardless as to what you may want to believe

[senorpepr]

everyone,

disregard what Opal storm said

Ivan was a marginal cat 3 at landfall and everyone knows this

Pierdido Key did not experience major hurricane conditions before Ivan, but then again everyone knows this as well

It is statements like yours, Opal Storm, that cause people to think they have survived a major hurricane and leads to them making horrible decisions, when they have really survived a tropical storm, which is all Pierdido Key received from Opal, Erin, and Georges, regardless as to what you may want to believe

Excellent points, Derek and Derecho. This is a horrible trend that I've seen over the past few years as the internet as brought more and more people into the world of tropical cyclones. More and more people believe they survived a "cat four" (for example) hurricane, when in fact, they were far enough away to only receive category one winds.

I'd like to see more detail by local meteorologists pointing out the strength of the winds by the Saffir-Simpson scale. After-the-fact maps, by county, community, or even city block detailing what category was experience in each location. Maybe this could also be accomplished in the tropical cyclone reports in a effort to help alert and educate people to the actual strength of storm they experienced rather than what the core was many miles away.

[Derek Ortt]

and one point about those "vulnerable" mobile homes in Charley's area

If they didn't get hit by the eye wall mini-swirls, they took no damage. They actually were build to withstand a major hurricane (they are not your typical mobile homes on wheels)


Also, downtown Punta Gorda was left resembling a German city at the end of the war. Those are concrete structures

[BayouVenteux]

...Also, downtown Punta Gorda was left resembling a German city at the end of the war. Those are concrete structures

Last December, I drove U.S. 41 into downtown Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte from my parent's house in Ft. Myers Beach, and one of the things that struck me was how you could see abrasion marks on the corners and sills of buildings that were painted or stained, stripped down to the plain concrete, as though they had been sandblasted or pressure washed.

Verifiable or not is beside the point...that's one hell of a wind.

[Derek Ortt]

Derecho,

700mb winds from Marilyn at the time of landfall indicate that Marilyn was a cat 3 at landfall as the widns were 112KT, which equates to 100.8KT

Likely on the reanalysis, Marilyn will be designated as a marginal 3 for the area, but of course, well below the cat 5 claims made by some knuckleheads

[Opal storm]

and one point about those "vulnerable" mobile homes in Charley's area

If they didn't get hit by the eye wall mini-swirls, they took no damage. They actually were build to withstand a major hurricane (they are not your typical mobile homes on wheels)


Also, downtown Punta Gorda was left resembling a German city at the end of the war. Those are concrete structures

Yeah,they were built to withstand a major hurricane yet they were all wiped out.Hmmm....I think it's a statement like that that are making people make dangerous descisions.Would anybody here stay in a mobile home if they knew they were going to recieve the strongests winds of a major hurricane?

Downtown Punta Gorda had some really old structures,it wouldn't have taken much to destroy those.Downtown Pensacola a good example,we only experienced cat 2 winds yet the downtown area was a disaster.