Recon Reports Dennis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
weatherSnoop
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 702
Age: 63
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 10:06 pm
Location: Tampa, FL
Contact:
Contact weatherSnoop

#101 Postby weatherSnoop » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:10 am

Senor, did a little bell go off to stir you from your cat nap when the obsv came in? Much deserved as you have done a great service for all of us!

Thank you
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#102 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:13 am

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 01
Time: 0500Z
Latitude: 25.0°N
Longitude: 78.0°W
Location: 34 mi W of Nassau, Bahamas
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In cloud
Pressure Altitude: 17200 feet
Flight level wind: SE (140°) @ 33 mph
Temperature: 25°F
Dewpoint: 21°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29133
Age: 74
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#103 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:41 am

FYI, if you are wondering why they are saying the flights are near Texas on their way out it is because the whole AF Recon section has been moved to Ellington Field here in Houston till Dennis is done. News had pictures of the whole flight line of them this evening.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#104 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 12:51 am

Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 02
Time: 0536Z
Latitude: 24.6°N
Longitude: 81.1°W
Location: 42 mi E of Key West, Florida
Turbulence: Occasional Moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 10000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (130°) @ 66 mph
Temperature: 46°F
Dewpoint: 46°F
Weather: Rainshowers
700mb height: 10300 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#105 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:02 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS OB 01 (04L)
Mission Number: 11
Flight ID: AF300
Observation Number:
Time: 05:26:30Z
Latitude: 23.3°N
Longitude: 82.4°W
Location: 20 mi N of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 MB 2856 M
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Distance and bearing from center to max surface wind: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (142°) @ 79 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 32 mi NE (51°)
Sea level pressure: 974 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 48°F at 138 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 54°F at 138 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: CLOSED WALL
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: .02/1 NM
MAX FL WIND 69 KTS NE QUAD 05:18:10Z
LAST REPORT.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#106 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:05 am

It has a closed eyewall...With 974 pressure. But its max winds over the northeast quad is only 69 knots flight level/60 knots surface. Can we say that we got a tropical storm.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#107 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:07 am

Cant be.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#108 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:09 am

Have you ever seen something so weird in your life!!! It went from 150 to 155 wind boader line cat5 to a tropical storm with 60 knot winds over 12 hours.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#109 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:10 am

Its not a tropical storm.
0 likes   
Top
mdlemin
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 30
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:19 pm
Location: Monroeville, PA
Contact:
Contact mdlemin

#110 Postby mdlemin » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:16 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Have you ever seen something so weird in your life!!! It went from 150 to 155 wind boader line cat5 to a tropical storm with 60 knot winds over 12 hours.


Still a strong category 2/borderline Cat 3 according to the 2 AM update I just saw on TV. Looks like it is starting to form around the eye again. I don't claim to be a pro or anything like that.
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#111 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:18 am

mdlemin wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Have you ever seen something so weird in your life!!! It went from 150 to 155 wind boader line cat5 to a tropical storm with 60 knot winds over 12 hours.


Still a strong category 2/borderline Cat 3 according to the 2 AM update I just saw on TV. Looks like it is starting to form around the eye again. I don't claim to be a pro or anything like that.
There was an update at 1AM. They didn't have the new recon yet. This is probably a strong Cat 1 right now...maybe Cat 2.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

#112 Postby PTPatrick » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:19 am

I am sur ethis has something to do with the transmission problems they were having. That may be in the NE quadrant, but how far out from the center. Are they in the keys? I just dont thin kthere is any way this thing is a ts...heck, charley to longer to cross FL and maintained hurricane winds to the east coast.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#113 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:25 am

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 01
Time: 0543Z
Latitude: 11.7°N
Longitude: 82.7°W
Location: 122 mi N of Limon, Costa Rica
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 16900 feet
Flight level wind: SW (230°) @ 7 mph
Temperature: 30°F
Dewpoint: 7°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: DPTD 09/0506Z ETA 23.9N 82.9W 0900Z
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#114 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:31 am

senorpepr, What do you think about that vortex???
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#115 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:31 am

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
Storm Name: DENNIS02 (04L)
Mission Number: WX
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 03
Time: 06:06:50Z
Latitude: 23.4°N
Longitude: 82.5°W
Location: 29 mi N of Havana, Cuba
Minimum height at 700 mb 2856 m
Est. Surface Winds Observed: NA
Maximum flight level wind: SE (144°) @ 82 mph
Distance and bearing from center to max flight level wind: 36 mi NE (52°)
Sea level pressure: 973 mb
Max flight level temperature outside the eye: 50°F at 9990 feet
Max flight level temperature inside the eye: 54°F at 9997 feet
Dewpoint temperature inside the eye: 54°F
Eye character: CLOSED
Eye shape: Circular
Eye diameter: 14 mi
Fix determined by: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature at 700 mb
Navigation / Met Accuracy: 0.02 / 01 nm
MAX FL WIND 71 KT NE QUAD 05:57:50 Z
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#116 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:33 am

Eye still closed. Pressure down one millibars to 973 millibars. But winds over the northeast quad are 71 knots. Which is around 80 mph at flight level/70 mph at surface.
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#117 Postby clfenwi » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:34 am

Observation Number: 04
Time: 0623Z
Location: 23.4 North 82.5 West
Sea Level Pressure: 973 millibars
Surface winds 17 knots // 200
925 millibar height: 443 meters
925 millibar winds: 15 knots // 220
850 millibar height: 1182 meters
850 millibar winds: 13 knots // 240
700 millibar height: 2842 meters
700 millibar winds: 10 knots // 165
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#118 Postby senorpepr » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:35 am

Storm Name: DENNIS (04L)
Mission Number: 12
Flight ID: NOAA2
Observation Number: 02
Time: 0620Z
Latitude: 14.6°N
Longitude: 82.6°W
Location: 65 mi NE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: Unknown
Pressure Altitude: 17700 feet
Flight level wind: SW (220°) @ 7 mph
Temperature: 27°F
Dewpoint: 10°F
Weather: Unknown
500mb height: 19400 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#119 Postby Scorpion » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:35 am

Wth is going on??
0 likes   
Top
gkrangers

#120 Postby gkrangers » Sat Jul 09, 2005 1:38 am

Scorpion wrote:Wth is going on??
AF 307 is providing low level fix recon...thats whats going on.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Team Ghost and 89 guests